Who would have been the Democratic nominee had Hillary Clinton not run?

[Beet]

Discuss.

[here2view]

Biden would have been urged to run by the establishment and he beats Sanders.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Biden would have been urged to run by the establishment and he beats Sanders.

Yep.  It's pretty clear now that much of Sanders' support was based on him not being Hillary.

[Del Tachi]

I actually think there would have been a big establishment field, as I don't think Biden would feel pressured to run in order to "beat Trump".  Patrick, Gillibrand, Warner and several others probably run, and I think Warren would too.

[Left Wing]

I actually think there would have been a big establishment field, as I don't think Biden would feel pressured to run in order to "beat Trump".  Patrick, Gillibrand, Warner and several others probably run, and I think Warren would too.

I agree. Probably a lot of people included in the hypothetical polls would have run
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Polls_conducted_in_2013

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sanders wouldn't have run to begin with, because the Draft Warren movement he supported would have succeeded in launching her campaign. That would probably have ended in defeat to Biden in the primaries (and I think he would also have won the GE), but there's definitely room for a Warren victory there. The historic unpopularity of HRC is a weakness he didn't share, but Biden had less establishment loyalty than her and a less enthusiastic core of supporters (which would have hurt him in the caucuses).

[Hope For A New Era]

If Biden had run, he would have won both the primary and the presidency easily.

Without Biden...I guess Sanders? No idea what the GE outcome of that would be, though. Possibilities probably span from HRC's outcome (or worse) all the way to a complete upending of the typical map (Sanders winning WV, or something).

[Lechasseur]

Despite an early lead over a crowded field, Warren loses to Biden in a fashion not that different from Dean losing to Kerry.

Agreed

[mianfei]

I actually think there would have been a big establishment field, as I don't think Biden would feel pressured to run in order to "beat Trump".  Patrick, Gillibrand, Warner and several others probably run, and I think Warren would too.

I’d think Warren would have had a good chance without Biden and Clinton running, actually. She might have had substantial appeal to the Sanders supporters without being viewed so extreme by the more establishment wing of the party.

Her combination of hawkishness on foreign policy and progressive economics might have lost her the Upper Midwest even more than Hilary did. At the same time – especially if she was less unpopular than Hilary Clinton – she could have done better in such critical Southern states as Florida and North Carolina. If she had won those two and all the votes Hilary won it would have given the Democrats 276 electoral votes – just enough to win.

[brucejoel99]

Biden would actually be a pretty big question mark, as Beau's 2015 death weighed heavily on him & was the single biggest reason that he ended up not running. Without Hillary in the race, though, it'd be a wide open contest & he'd easily be the favorite to win the nomination were he to jump in, even in the fall, & that's the sort of chance that might've been too good to pass up.

[dw93]

Biden if he chooses to run. If not, Warren would stand a good chance of getting drafted and with Bernie not running (he said he'd have stayed out in 2016 if she ran), she'd have a good shot at getting nominated.