KS-Progress Campaign: Bollier +2

[Pollster]

Never heard of these folks, but their numbers and crosstabs look believable, and methodology looks sound.

Bollier 43
Kobach 41
Other/Not sure 16

Link

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

With Kobach: Tossup

With any other: Titanium R

[😥]

Why did they poll with Kobach as a GOP nominee but not with Marshall?

Anyway, Tossup/Tilt R with Kobach, Likely R with Marshall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kobach is hurting the R majority, Dems can wind up 51 seats

[Xing]

Too bad Kobach likely won’t be the nominee.

[Gracile]

It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.

[tmthforu94]

It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.

Agreed, because if they do, the narrative shifts from “Democrats can win this” to “Marshall is the only one who can defeat Bollier.” Liberal groups don’t want that!!

[windjammer]

It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.

Agreed, because if they do, the narrative shifts from “Democrats can win this” to “Marshall is the only one who can defeat Bollier.” Liberal groups don’t want that!!

Kobach is worse than Marshall but I don't think Marshall is like the popular politician  the NRSS wants to portray him. It's like choosing between a lean rep and likely rep rating.

[President Johnson]

Wow, that's pretty strong, considering Biden is down ten in the same poll. KKKobach may actually make this competitive, but still Lean Republican at best. Bollier is a strong candidate that fits the constituency she's running to represent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, that's pretty strong, considering Biden is down ten in the same poll. KKKobach may actually make this competitive, but still Lean Republican at best. Bollier is a strong candidate that fits the constituency she's running to represent.

Dr.Bollier is a Surgeon General and is needed in this Pandemic.  Trump did a disservice by shelving Jerome Adam's and Fauci, whom were Surgeon Generals, who were good public relations; instead, talked about himself, KS is trending Dem

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach will not win the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kobach will not win the primary.

Dr Bollier, Cal Cunningham,  S.BULLOCK and Mark Kelly iare cracking the red wall of 260, just like Trump crashed the 278 blue wall in 2016

[Panda Express]

Kobach will not win the primary.

Dr Bollier, Cal Cunningham,  S.BULLOCK and Mark Kelly iare cracking the red wall of 260, just like Trump crashed the 278 blue wall in 2016

Sandra Bullock?

[Pericles]

It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.

Agreed, because if they do, the narrative shifts from “Democrats can win this” to “Marshall is the only one who can defeat Bollier.” Liberal groups don’t want that!!

Are any of these polls showing Bollier winning or very close non-partisan? The Democratic polls might not be hugely off, it's not inconceivable that Kobach loses if he's the nominee, but there probably is a bias to Bollier in polls like these.

[Politician]

Kobach will not win the primary.

Yes he will.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It's too bad we don't have more Bollier vs. Marshall polling.

Agreed, because if they do, the narrative shifts from “Democrats can win this” to “Marshall is the only one who can defeat Bollier.” Liberal groups don’t want that!!

Are any of these polls showing Bollier winning or very close non-partisan? The Democratic polls might not be hugely off, it's not inconceivable that Kobach loses if he's the nominee, but there probably is a bias to Bollier in polls like these.

Believe it or not, Kobach was actually polling better in the gubernatorial race against Kelly than he is now against Bollier in the Senate race. I have no reason to think the polls are underestimating him this time

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Kobach somehow loses the primary (which is of course nowhere near as likely as people here think), this race won’t move from Tossup to "Titanium" R. People are underestimating how much of the closeness of this race can be attributed to Bollier's own strengths and profile as a candidate, the state's obvious Democratic trend (which did not come to a halt with Brownback's departure from office), Trump's 2016 margin likely to be cut in half, the terrible national environment for the GOP, and Republican infighting in this race/the state more generally.

Obviously Kobach's flaws as a candidate could tip the scales in Bollier's favor in a close race (which is why Republicans should indeed be rooting for Marshall), but "Kobach is the only reason this race isn’t TITANIUM R" is a serious exaggeration and mischaracterization, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014 of all years, i.e. when an "inoffensive" Republican incumbent was struggling to win reelection in a Republican year.

The takes on this race from both sides fit into a post-2018 pattern of Democrats being unnecessarily bearish and Republicans being unjustifiably bullish on their prospects in many of these red states (MT & KS in particular, but other races/states as well), as both have in common a nagging habit of underestimating red state Democrats and the openness of those red states to actually elect a Democratic Senator. I get that people love to "learn lessons" from every election (even if they’re all the wrong lessons), but 2018 objectively doesn’t prove that red state Democrats can no longer win Senate races or that "polarization" is just as big a hurdle for red state Democrats as it is for blue state Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems won in 2018 40 House seats in red states TX, AZ and FL and even SC and UT that can be replicated in 2020. With 20 percent unemployment. I think Rs are fixated, like Badger and French Republican, on this pernament 278 map and Dems will never win OH, FL, or IA ever again in our lifetime, which isn't true.

MT, KY, AK, IA, SC, KS, TX and GA are in play. In addition OH Senate, in 2022 is in play should Tim Ryan run, and he can pull a Bullock, since his friend Biden, recruited Ted Strickland to go against Portman before the implosion.

[windjammer]

Even if Kobach somehow loses the primary (which is of course nowhere near as likely as people here think), this race won’t move from Tossup to "Titanium" R. People are underestimating how much of the closeness of this race can be attributed to Bollier's own strengths and profile as a candidate, the state's obvious Democratic trend (which did not come to a halt with Brownback's departure from office), Trump's 2016 margin likely to be cut in half, the terrible national environment for the GOP, and Republican infighting in this race/the state more generally.

Obviously Kobach's flaws as a candidate could tip the scales in Bollier's favor in a close race (which is why Republicans should indeed be rooting for Marshall), but "Kobach is the only reason this race isn’t TITANIUM R" is a serious exaggeration and mischaracterization, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014 of all years, i.e. when an "inoffensive" Republican incumbent was struggling to win reelection in a Republican year.

The takes on this race from both sides fit into a post-2018 pattern of Democrats being unnecessarily bearish and Republicans being unjustifiably bullish on their prospects in many of these red states (MT & KS in particular, but other races/states as well), as both have in common a nagging habit of underestimating red state Democrats and the openness of those red states to actually elect a Democratic Senator. I get that people love to "learn lessons" from every election (even if they’re all the wrong lessons), but 2018 objectively doesn’t prove that red state Democrats can no longer win Senate races or that "polarization" is just as big a hurdle for red state Democrats as it is for blue state Republicans.

This, this and this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Kobach somehow loses the primary (which is of course nowhere near as likely as people here think), this race won’t move from Tossup to "Titanium" R. People are underestimating how much of the closeness of this race can be attributed to Bollier's own strengths and profile as a candidate, the state's obvious Democratic trend (which did not come to a halt with Brownback's departure from office), Trump's 2016 margin likely to be cut in half, the terrible national environment for the GOP, and Republican infighting in this race/the state more generally.

Obviously Kobach's flaws as a candidate could tip the scales in Bollier's favor in a close race (which is why Republicans should indeed be rooting for Marshall), but "Kobach is the only reason this race isn’t TITANIUM R" is a serious exaggeration and mischaracterization, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014 of all years, i.e. when an "inoffensive" Republican incumbent was struggling to win reelection in a Republican year.

The takes on this race from both sides fit into a post-2018 pattern of Democrats being unnecessarily bearish and Republicans being unjustifiably bullish on their prospects in many of these red states (MT & KS in particular, but other races/states as well), as both have in common a nagging habit of underestimating red state Democrats and the openness of those red states to actually elect a Democratic Senator. I get that people love to "learn lessons" from every election (even if they’re all the wrong lessons), but 2018 objectively doesn’t prove that red state Democrats can no longer win Senate races or that "polarization" is just as big a hurdle for red state Democrats as it is for blue state Republicans.

This, this and this.

He is very wrong about Franken and IA, before 2014, Tom Harkin was a Dem senator and Reynolds only won by 3.5 percent,  IA is not MO and OH isnr IN. In 1988,, 1992, 96, 00, 08 and 12, IA voted Dem and voted along with FL and OH in 92, 96 and 08 and 12. Dems are defending 3/4 Congressional districts and King can lose.  In a 2012 environment, IA, OH, FL will vote D

IA havent been polled since Feb due to not being focus point until June 2nd primary.  Franken can beat Ernst