2020: How will DC trend?

[I’m not Stu]

It will obviously vote Democratic by a wide margin, but how will it trend?

[Real Texan Politics]

DC is the safest democratic place in the whole country. Not once has it ever voted republican and I don't see it voting republican for a long long time.

[Gracile]

It could perhaps trend Republican if the nation swings so heavily Democratic, but the way it trends isn't meaningful as DC is pretty statically at ~90% Democratic.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Biden do better or worse than Clinton in 2016?

[clever but short]

Hot take: if you want Democrats to win the electoral college, you should hope that D.C. will trend Democratic.

[I’m not Stu]

Hot take: if you want Democrats to win the electoral college, you should hope that D.C. will trend Democratic.

DC doesn't matter. What matters is Democrats winning states like Wisconsin or Arizona.

[clever but short]

Hot take: if you want Democrats to win the electoral college, you should hope that D.C. will trend Democratic.

DC doesn't matter. What matters is Democrats winning states like Wisconsin or Arizona.

Obviously DC doesn't matter in the EC.

My point is that if DC trends Democrat, that will mean one of two things:

1) the margin in the district is remaining basically static as the national popular vote swings right
2) the district swings left further than the national popular vote swings left

The former is obviously bad news for Democrats.

I find the latter quite unlikely, especially if the national popular vote swings left far enough for Democrats to win. I think the district is near enough to maxed-out that it doesn't have that kind of swing left in it. That would mean that Trump probably gets <1% of the vote.

[clever but short]

Hot take: if you want Democrats to win the electoral college, you should hope that D.C. will trend Democratic.

DC doesn't matter. What matters is Democrats winning states like Wisconsin or Arizona.

Obviously DC doesn't matter in the EC.

My point is that if DC trends Democrat, that will mean one of two things:

1) the margin in the district is remaining basically static as the national popular vote swings right
2) the district swings left further than the national popular vote swings left

The former is obviously bad news for Democrats.

I find the latter quite unlikely, especially if the national popular vote swings left far enough for Democrats to win. I think the district is near enough to maxed-out that it doesn't have that kind of swing left in it. That would mean that Trump probably gets <1% of the vote.

I just realized that I blundered and I meant to say "Hot take: if you want Democrats to win the electoral college, you should hope that D.C. will trend *Republican*"! Which is probably why I didn't make sense. My apologies.

[Agonized-Statism]

Safe Batman. Superman has no chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since it will become a state, it will give its 3 EC votes that it already gives to Dems. It will have a Dem Gov and 2 Dem Senators and a voting House member.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So, what you're really asking is, how will the US swing, because DC can't really swing much at all.

If the US swings Democrat, DC will trend Republican.
If the US swings Republican, DC will trend Democrat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Republican because Trump will lose in a landslide while DC will struggle to keep up with the overall swing.

[lfromnj]

This thread is peak atlas
>believes 2020 will be a solid Democrat year such as Biden +6 or +7, Also somehow believes DC will swing more than 5 points Democrat.

ALL STATES WILL TREND D.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This thread is peak atlas
>believes 2020 will be a solid Democrat year such as Biden +6 or +7, Also somehow believes DC will swing more than 5 points Democrat.

ALL STATES WILL TREND D.

BiDeN WiLl WiN 98% oF tHe VoTe. Anyhow, it could probably vote 93% for Biden, Max. If the country swings more than 2 points to the left, it will trend R. If the country swings 0-2 points to the left, it will probably still trend R. If the country swings to the right (lol) it will trend D.

TL;DR: Atlas thinks the country will swing to the right in 2020.

[clever but short]

So, what you're really asking is, how will the US swing, because DC can't really swing much at all.

If the US swings Democrat, DC will trend Republican.
If the US swings Republican, DC will trend Democrat.

[RINO Tom]

It will trend Republican, and the next four years will be discussing how the Blacks - whom we love, we love the Blacks - will be coming home after a very long and awkward estrangement.

[lfromnj]

This thread is peak atlas
>believes 2020 will be a solid Democrat year such as Biden +6 or +7, Also somehow believes DC will swing more than 5 points Democrat.

ALL STATES WILL TREND D.

BiDeN WiLl WiN 98% oF tHe VoTe. Anyhow, it could probably vote 93% for Biden, Max. If the country swings more than 2 points to the left, it will trend R. If the country swings 0-2 points to the left, it will probably still trend R. If the country swings to the right (lol) it will trend D.

TL;DR: Atlas thinks the country will swing to the right in 2020.

Well no atlas is just full of inconsistent hacks who don't understand the term Trend.

[Flyersfan232]

Republican by like a point or two depending if trump can get 12 percent of blacks and or how many third party voters come back to the gop

[Non Swing Voter]

I think it has to trend Republican even though Trump is so hated there because Dems really maxed out in 2016 there.  Plus some Republicans have moved to the area because of the GOP President, lobbying, etc., also black share of the population keeps decreasing every year.  Which isn't much but for such a small voter pool it might move move the vote like 1 point to Trump even as the national vote moves 3 or 4 points to Biden.

[Del Tachi]

I think it has to trend Republican even though Trump is so hated there because Dems really maxed out in 2016 there.  Plus some Republicans have moved to the area because of the GOP President, lobbying, etc., also black share of the population keeps decreasing every year.  Which isn't much but for such a small voter pool it might move move the vote like 1 point to Trump even as the national vote moves 3 or 4 points to Biden.

D.C. Blacks and Whites are about equally Democratic (about 9-to-1).  Whites in DC vote much more Democratic than Whites in any other major East Coast city.  So even if the District is becoming Whiter, we shouldn't expect its top-line partisan numbers to change very much.