Which governors are beatable in 2022?
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  Which governors are beatable in 2022?
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Poll
Question: Which of the following governors are beatable in 2022?
#1
Kay Ivey
 
#2
Mike Dunleavy
 
#3
Gavin Newsom
 
#4
Jared Polis
 
#5
Ned Lamont
 
#6
Ron DeSantis
 
#7
Brian Kemp
 
#8
Brad Little
 
#9
J.B. Pritzker
 
#10
Kim Reynolds
 
#11
Laura Kelly
 
#12
Janet Mills
 
#13
Charlie Baker
 
#14
Gretchen Whitmer
 
#15
Tim Walz
 
#16
Steve Sisolak
 
#17
Michelle Lujan Grisham
 
#18
Andrew Cuomo
 
#19
Mike DeWine
 
#20
Kevin Stitt
 
#21
Henry McMaster
 
#22
Kristi Noem
 
#23
Bill Lee
 
#24
Greg Abbott
 
#25
Tony Evers
 
#26
Mark Gordon
 
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Total Voters: 79

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Author Topic: Which governors are beatable in 2022?  (Read 2210 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: April 27, 2020, 10:16:34 PM »

Which of the following governors are beatable in 2022? I included Ivey and McMaster but I'm unsure if they're eligible for another term. I know Reynolds is, though.
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Skunk
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« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2020, 10:49:31 PM »

In terms of most to least beatable in a Trump midterm:

Kemp
DeSantis
Kelly
Evers
Mills
Abbott
Whitmer
Noem
Sisolak
Dunleavy
Lamont
Walz

Biden midterm:
Kelly
Evers
Kemp
Mills
Whitmer
DeSantis
Sisolak
Lamont
Walz
Abbott
Noem
Dunleavy

Some of these can probably have the order switched around a bit.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2020, 10:59:22 PM »

Lamont- He's not all that popular anyways

DeSantis- He botched COVID with the beach stunt

Kemp- Opening up early might have made people mad

Reynolds- Iowa has such a high rate of COVID

Kelly- It's Kansas

Whitmer- She's getting an unfair rap as an overreacher, she could lose a Biden midterm

Sisolak- Seems kind of boring, if it's a 2014 type year, he could lose Nevada

Noem- she almost lost last time and her response to COVID has been lackluster

Abbott- We'll see what happens with TX going forward. The Democrats in Texas are fired up about flipping the state blue. In a Trump midterm- who knows

Evers- Wisconsin's weird
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 09:54:11 AM »

Memo to those who think that DeSantis is beatable : even in the few recents polls which had Trump trailling in FL, DeSantis had still a very good approval rate.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 09:55:04 AM »

Dunleavy
Kelly
Evers
Whitmer
Lamont
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Orser67
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 10:28:14 AM »

Kelly and Dunleavy are beatable in a mid-term for either party.

Most of the Dems are beatable in a Biden mid-term, but I am willing to rule out Newsom, Lujan Grisham, and Cuomo (at least in the general).

DeSantis, Kemp, Abbott, Reynolds, Noem, and, yeah, I'll say it, even DeWine are beatable in a Trump mid-term. I think a second Trump mid-term could get pretty bad for the Republican Party.
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 01:33:36 PM »

Kelly, probably under both Biden and Trump, unless a Trump six-year itch opens the floodgates.

Kemp seems to be constantly stepping on landmines, he'll certainly be vulnerable under both.

Evers under both because Wisconsin.

DeSantis has governed very differently than his campaign implied he would, and he's been resilient. He could probably survive another Democratic wave year, as Florida has shown resistance to wave elections, but the aforementioned Trump six-year itch could make his reelection much tougher especially without Scott dumping his money into GOP turnout.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2020, 01:47:05 PM »

Depends on the president at time, but generally I'd say: Dunleavy, Lamont, DeSantis, Kemp, Reynolds, Kelly, Mills, Whitmer, DeWine and Evers. That doesn't mean they will lose.

I don't think Sisolak loses, even in a Biden midterm. He should be fine. Similar with Polis.

Primaries are another story, but likely every one will prevail. I'm curious to see whether left puts up another attempt to knock off Andrew Cuomo. The third attempt will certainly fail again.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2020, 04:07:23 PM »

Is Newsom unbeatable, or is he beatable in a D vs. D runoff?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2020, 05:12:08 PM »

Is Newsom unbeatable, or is he beatable in a D vs. D runoff?

Looks unbeatable with the way things are now, even from a challenge from the left.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2020, 04:18:10 AM »

AZ, IA and KS govs are vulnerable and should Graham run against DeSantis,  she can win
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Coldstream
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2020, 08:09:23 AM »

I wonder if those who’ve been particularly bad under coronavirus such as DeSantis, Noem and Kemp could be vulnerable to primary challenges.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2020, 09:38:57 AM »

I wonder if those who’ve been particularly bad under coronavirus such as DeSantis, Noem and Kemp could be vulnerable to primary challenges.

It would be something if Francis Suarez, Dusty Johnson and Chris Carr all primaried the incumbents from the center. 
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2020, 09:44:00 AM »

Is Newsom unbeatable, or is he beatable in a D vs. D runoff?

Highly doubt there will be a significant Dem candidate entering the primary. I think the 2nd place of the jungle primary will be a fight among GOPers, and Newsom will face a one in November. And crush said GOPer, of course.
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2020, 01:06:43 PM »

How vulnerable they are will depend on who's president and how popular they are, but overall:

DeSantis
Dunleavy
Evers
Kelly
Kemp
Lamont
Mills
Noem
Reynolds
Whitmer
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andjey
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« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2020, 01:20:05 PM »

Mike Dunleavy       
Ned Lamont       
Ron DeSantis       
Brian Kemp       
Kim Reynolds (only in Trump midterm)       
Laura Kelly (only in Biden midterm)       
Janet Mills       
Gretchen Whitmer (only in Biden midterm)       
Mike DeWine   (only in Trump midterm)   
Kristi Noem
Tony Evers
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2020, 01:59:36 PM »

I just wonder whether all of them will actually run for reelection. I read in 2018 DeWine might just serve one term, which is why Jon Husted dropped out and accepted the second spot on the ticket.

There's also some chance Baker or Cuomo retire (or latter joins the Biden Administration). Lamont may also decline to seek reelection.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: April 30, 2020, 01:44:39 AM »

None of them will, except for Gov Kelly whom will be in a tough reelection
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Quincy Kelley
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« Reply #18 on: April 30, 2020, 11:02:27 AM »

1.) Abbott (TX) has already declared last year he's running for reelection in 2022. He'll easily get reelected by double digits (around 20-25 percentage points), making him the second longest-serving TX Governor by January 19, 2027.

2.) Cuomo (NY State) will easily win reelection in 2022 to a historic 4th term, which will make him the second NY State Governor since Rockefeller to win 4 terms.

3.) Whitmer (MI), Evers (WI), Kelly (KS) will have stronger GOP challengers in their respective states in 2022.

4.) Ivey (AL) might retire in 2022 due to her age & does she have the stamina to seek a 2nd full 4-year term ?

5.) Kemp (GA) isn't losing reelection in 2022, even against Abrams in a rematch. The GA Dems will have to move elsewhere down the road.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: April 30, 2020, 01:08:22 PM »

Kelly will be the only incumbent Gov to lose, since Evers and Siaolak have Senate races and Tom Batrett or Ron Kind can run for Senate
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Quincy Kelley
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« Reply #20 on: April 30, 2020, 02:44:07 PM »

Kelly will be the only incumbent Gov to lose, since Evers and Siaolak have Senate races and Tom Batrett or Ron Kind can run for Senate

Safe to say Kelly will be the last Democratic Governor KS will have for awhile.
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« Reply #21 on: April 30, 2020, 08:25:02 PM »

Kelly will be the only incumbent Gov to lose, since Evers and Siaolak have Senate races and Tom Batrett or Ron Kind can run for Senate

Safe to say Kelly will be the last Democratic Governor KS will have for awhile.
You're making some very bold claims in this thread, what makes you say that about Kansas?
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Quincy Kelley
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2020, 08:06:19 AM »

Kelly will be the only incumbent Gov to lose, since Evers and Siaolak have Senate races and Tom Batrett or Ron Kind can run for Senate

Safe to say Kelly will be the last Democratic Governor KS will have for awhile.
You're making some very bold claims in this thread, what makes you say that about Kansas?

1.) KS is deep Red & always has been.

2.) Hostile GOP controlled legislature.

3.) Kelly doesn't have the statewide stature that Sebelius (who won 4 statewide elections as Insurance Commissioner in 1994, 1998 & Governor in 2002, 2006) had.

4.) GOP aren't going to get sucker-punched again.

5.) RGA will be spending heavily in this race.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2020, 08:48:29 AM »

Kansas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan tends to swing with whoever the president is. Wisconsin and Michigan haven't elected a governor of the same party as the president since 1990. Kansas and New Mexico haven't done it since 1986. New Jersey has the longest track record though, not having done it since 1985
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2016
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« Reply #24 on: May 26, 2020, 12:27:25 PM »

Gretchen Whitmer will fall back into obvilion in 2022.
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