Will the 2024 Democratic be competitive with Biden's vice president running?

[President Johnson]

Assuming Joe Biden is elected in 2020 but declines to seek reelection, will the 2024 primary even be somewhat competitive? In all likelyhood, his vice president would run to replace him. My money would be on Kamala here. I think a handful of more or less known figures will challenge her, but she will run through to the nomination similar to Al Gore in 2000 with a de facto incumbency advantage. Thoughts?

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming said Vice President isn't on the left wing, I'd expect a primary challenge from someone on the left (AOC comes to mind right off the bat, as does Beto O'Rourke).

I'm not sure how well they'd do though.

[MillennialModerate]

If Biden wins then yes I see this being a total 2000 redux with the VP being the likely nominee.

Which means that if Biden wins and his VP is to win in ‘24  there’s not likely to be an enticing year for Dems to run until ... 2036?

2020: Biden
2024: Biden’s VP
2028: Either Biden’s VP is re-elected or GOP wins
2032: a ‘28 GOP win would mean electing a Dem would mean voters would either be voting to make 4th President in a row a 1 termer OR a ‘28 Dem win would mean voters would be voting to give the Dems a FOURTH term in a row.
2036 :

[Orser67]

I think the VP would at least be the clear front-runner for the nomination, but I'd also expect at least a Pat Buchanan-level challenge from the left. I guess another scenario would be 2000, where Gore defeated Bradley fairly easily, but Bradley was still a pretty legitimate contender for the nomination.

[Mister Mets]

It would be competitive, although the running mate would likely start out as the favorite, as the first woman elected to national office.

Some potential running mates would have more advantages than others.

If Biden picks an African-American woman (Kamala Harris, Val Demings, Stacey Abrams, Susan Rice) she would likely have the support of the establishment and African-American primary voters, making it very difficult for anyone else to find a useful niche.

Elizabeth Warren would have similar advantages with the wine track, and the establishment.

A Latina running mate (Grisham, Cortez Masto) would be positioned to rack up numbers in California, in addition to having the establishment support that comes with being in national office.

Centrist midwestern white women like Whitmer and Klobuchar might start in a weaker position, as there are swaths of voters who might be more easily persuaded to go with someone else.

One potential unknown is how someone is in office. A Vice President could easily embarrass themselves on the national stage, and be vulnerable that way.

[ShadowRocket]

Yeah, I would expect a 2000 redux as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it basically played out in the way of a primary with an incumbent President where there is nothing more than the usual token opposition.

[brucejoel99]

It'd be somewhat competitive, given the Democratic Party's evident moderate/progressive divide. Personally, I think the VP would probably only start out as clear a front-runner for the 2024 nomination as Biden did for the 2020 nomination (though, suffice it to say that such being the case obviously still turned out pretty well for him).

In any event (with the obvious exception of Biden running for re-election as an incumbent, though), I think the 2024 Democratic primary would be more of a 2020/16 redux than a 2000 or 1992-like redux.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Klobuchar or Whitmer is the VP, do you all think a prominent Black Democrat will hop in?

Hillary and Biden were uniquely fit to have a lock on that vote. I don't see any other White Democrat who wouldn't be vulnerable on that front.

[Barack Oganja]

I'm going to go against the grain here and say it'll be competitive. If Biden's VP runs away with the 2024 nomination, then it's likely there won't be another competitive primary in the party until 2032. That may be too long to wait for ambitious politicians. It depends on how popular Biden is though. If he's really popular that obviously bolsters the VP's case, but if his term is seen as average or below average it'll complicate things.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It won't be "safe VP", if that's the definition of competitive, but I'd rate it likely VP unless the Biden admin was scandal-plagued.

[Devils30]

No, if Biden wins and Ds hold Congress in 2022. It's not hard to see a challenger from the left to hit Biden on identity issues and fail miserably