Largest single state, single election trends since 1980

[Orser67]

This list is based off of Atlas data (e.g. this 1980 page) and uses the Atlas definition of trend (which is basically how much the state swung in comparison to the national popular vote).

There are some pretty obvious home state effects here (e.g. AR voting for Clinton in 1992), as well as third party effects (DC in 1984 seems to largely have been about Anderson's strength in 1980), but there also some states without obvious answers imho.

2016 Utah 31.8D
2008 Hawaii 26.8D
1984 Georgia 26.7R
1980 North Dakota 20.3R
2008 Arkansas 19.8R
1980 Nevada 19.5R
2000 Wyoming 19.1R
1980 Arkansas 18.8R
1984 D.C. 18.7D
1992 Arkansas 18.6D
1984 South Carolina 18.0R
1992 Iowa 17.5R
1980 Vermont 17.0D
2012 Utah 16.5R
1996 Kansas 16.0R
1980 South Dakota 15.6R
1984 North Dakota 15.4R

[Frenchrepublican]

Interesting.

[nclib]

I think VT is meant to be D in 1980.

ND 1980 has the highest trend outside of states not gaining or losing a home state candidate. Also, it's the only state (aside from home state candidates) to appear on this list twice in subsequent elections. Any explanation?

Arkansas is listed 3 times and none of them were subsequent.

Looking at other home state candidates not on this list:

Reagan, CA 1980 3.20
Mondale, MN 1984 4.72
H.W. Bush, (TX?) 1988 -4.40
Dukakis, MA 1988 0.15
W. Bush, TX 2000 8.39
Gore, TN 2000 1.73
Kerry, MA 2004 0.84
McCain, AZ 2008 7.75
Obama, IL 2008 5.03
Romney, MA/MI 2012 MI:3.57 MA:-0.74
H. Clinton IL/AR (NY is same as Trump) 2016 IL:1.81 AR: -1.47

[morgankingsley]

I knew Nevada used to be titanium republican but i didn't know it swung that much

[Orser67]

I think VT is meant to be D in 1980.

ND 1980 has the highest trend outside of states not gaining or losing a home state candidate. Also, it's the only state (aside from home state candidates) to appear on this list twice in subsequent elections. Any explanation?

Arkansas is listed 3 times and none of them were subsequent.

Fixed, thanks for pointing that out, and double thanks for being polite about it. And yeah, AR and ND stood out to me as well.

The other thing I noticed from this exercise was the absolutely massive trends in the South in 1976; I had known about them before, but this made me truly appreciate just how large they were. GA trended 59 points to go from 75R-25D in 1972 to 67D-33R in 1976, 10 other Southern states (by census region) trended at least 15 points towards Democrats, and the remaining Southern states (plus MO+KS) trended towards Democrats as well.

Also, if anyone is curious, the largest trend I found was in 1896, when Colorado trended 119.5 points towards Democrats. However, this is kind of a technicality; the Populist nominee won Colorado with 54% of the vote in 1892 when Cleveland wasn't on the ballot, while in 1896 Bryan (who was nominated by both the Democratic and Populist parties) won CO with 71% of the vote in 1896.

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting list. What was the biggest swing ever? I'd bet on GA from 1972 to 1976. Nixon took 75% of the vote in his reelection and won every county, four years later Carter received 66% of the vote and swept all counties, too.

[Orser67]

Here are 60+ point swings in the two-party vote since 1896:

1896 CO: 112.2D
1896 ID: 101.D
1964 MS: 86.0R
1976 GA: 84.2D
1968 MS: 83.8D
1964 AL: 83.7R
1948 AL: 82.1R
1896 NV: 81.7D
1932 TX: 80.4D
1948 MS: 79.7R
1932 OK: 74.9D
1968 AL: 74.2D
1932 GA: 70.6D
1972 MS: 68.1R
1976 AR: 68.1D
1932 AL: 67.8D
1900 UT: 67.7R
1932 FL: 66.4D
1912 SD: 65.8D
1912 CA: 63.7D
1896 MT: 62.9D
1948 SC: 62.8R
1920 ND: 61.1R
1976 MS: 60.5D
1976 AL: 60.0D

Some of these are probably a little counter-intuitive; e.g. how did MS swing 83.8 points to the Democrats in 1968 when Wallace won the state? The answer is that, purely compared to the Democratic Party, the Republicans went from winning by 74 points (an 87R-13D win) in 1964 to losing by ten points (Wallace won 63.5% of the vote, followed by Humphrey with 23% and Nixon with 13.5%) in 1968.

[mianfei]

ND 1980 has the highest trend outside of states not gaining or losing a home state candidate. Also, it's the only state (aside from home state candidates) to appear on this list twice in subsequent elections. Any explanation?

ND has always been the most volatile state in the country due to its extreme isolationism and vulnerability to agricultural influences.

Even in 2008, Obama gained greatly from hostility towards Bush’s war policies, whilst Reagan, Bush junior, and Trump all made large gains due to Democratic environmental policies (and perhaps immigration policies too).

Some of these are probably a little counter-intuitive; e.g. how did MS swing 83.8 points to the Democrats in 1968 when Wallace won the state? The answer is that, purely compared to the Democratic Party, the Republicans went from winning by 74 points (an 87R-13D win) in 1964 to losing by ten points (Wallace won 63.5% of the vote, followed by Humphrey with 23% and Nixon with 13.5%) in 1968.

If we exclude elections dominated by third party candidates – where one often does best by combining with one of the other major party – then these large trends all fall into three groups:

• swings against Bryan in the West due to evaporation of the free silver issue before the 1900 election
• swings against Hoover in Outer South due to the Great Depression and elimination of the anti-Catholicism that helped him carry TX, FL, NC, VA, TN and OK in 1928, and nearly carry AL
• swings to Carter in 1976 as a southern favorite son after the South overwhelmingly rejected McGovern (in the Deep South, Nixon actually won more of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote)

[Orser67]

If we exclude elections dominated by third party candidates – where one often does best by combining with one of the other major party – then these large trends all fall into three groups:

• swings against Bryan in the West due to evaporation of the free silver issue before the 1900 election
• swings against Hoover in Outer South due to the Great Depression and elimination of the anti-Catholicism that helped him carry TX, FL, NC, VA, TN and OK in 1928, and nearly carry AL
• swings to Carter in 1976 as a southern favorite son after the South overwhelmingly rejected McGovern (in the Deep South, Nixon actually won more of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote)

Good summary. For UT in 1900, I think it's also at least partially because of successful Republican efforts to court Mormon leaders. For 1932, I'd also note that it's probably the only time in American history where an indisputable landslide for one party was immediately followed by an indisputable landslide for the opposite party.

I'd add that for ND in 1920, it's at least partially because of an absolutely massive shift towards Republicans, particularly outside of the South. 1920 is kind of a fascinating election for the degree in which it represented a repudiation of the Democratic Party, and Harding retains the record for the largest popular vote margin. ND had the most striking shift, going from 48D-46R to 78R-18D, but there were plenty of other states that had massive swings (e.g. MN went from a 0.1% Democratic Republican victory to a 50-point Republican victory).

[Calthrina950]

If we exclude elections dominated by third party candidates – where one often does best by combining with one of the other major party – then these large trends all fall into three groups:

• swings against Bryan in the West due to evaporation of the free silver issue before the 1900 election
• swings against Hoover in Outer South due to the Great Depression and elimination of the anti-Catholicism that helped him carry TX, FL, NC, VA, TN and OK in 1928, and nearly carry AL
• swings to Carter in 1976 as a southern favorite son after the South overwhelmingly rejected McGovern (in the Deep South, Nixon actually won more of the black vote than McGovern did of the white vote)

Good summary. For UT in 1900, I think it's also at least partially because of successful Republican efforts to court Mormon leaders. For 1932, I'd also note that it's probably the only time in American history where an indisputable landslide for one party was immediately followed by an indisputable landslide for the opposite party.

I'd add that for ND in 1920, it's at least partially because of an absolutely massive shift towards Republicans, particularly outside of the South. 1920 is kind of a fascinating election for the degree in which it represented a repudiation of the Democratic Party, and Harding retains the record for the largest popular vote margin. ND had the most striking shift, going from 48D-46R to 78R-18D, but there were plenty of other states that had massive swings (e.g. MN went from a 0.1% Democratic victory to a 50-point Republican victory).

I'm assuming you mean a 0.1% Republican victory. The state never voted Democratic at the presidential level prior to 1932.