Rate Iowa

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote or change vote in previous threads here:

AZ GA GA(S) ME MI MT NC

Ratings

MT: Lean Daines --> Toss-Up/Tilt Daines

No Election: 35
Safe Dem: 8
Likely Dem:
Lean Dem: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt Dem: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt Rep: 1
Lean Rep: 2
Likely Rep:
Safe Rep: 12
No Election: 30

Predictions

Democrats: 47
Republicans: 45

Pickups

AZ ME NC

[ElectionsGuy]

Assuming NC and ME hold, Atlas likely predicts a 50-50 Senate that will go Democratic with Biden's VP.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely R

Ernst will probably runs 3 to 4 points ahead of Trump and considering that Trump would win IA if the election was held now, it's fair to say that Ernst is favoured.

[Lechasseur]

Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win this seat as bad the polls are for Trump, the polls are +8 Biden, and IA voted Dem in a wave..

This is not the same 3.5 percent unemployment rate economy that happened before the Pandemic. It's a wave election that could happen like in 2008

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R. Trump could lose Iowa by 5 points and Ernst would still win by 5. But Trump will win Iowa by double digits this time, and Ernst could win by 20 points or more.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Likely Ersnt but closer to safe than lean. IA is a pretty R state at this point, and Ernsts seems pretty popular. She can't be really attacked for much like Suasn Collins or Doug Collins, or Susan Collins and isn't controversial. Greenfield isn't a great opponent either. Unless Fraken wins and Ernsts messes up big time, it's an R seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Franken can win this race. REYNOLDS  won by 3.5 points,  not 10 pts. Even Greenfield can win, the last poll had it plus 6 over Greenfield

[here2view]

Likely R, and closer to Safe than Lean

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R, and closer to Safe than Lean

Iowa has gone Dem in wave elections in 1992, 96, 08 and 12, its tilts R but Dems are defending 3/4 Congressional seats and Franken can beat Ernst. Last poll had it Ernst plus 6

[Calthrina950]

Safe R. Trump could lose Iowa by 5 points and Ernst would still win by 5. But Trump will win Iowa by double digits this time, and Ernst could win by 20 points or more.

I'm not sure Trump is going to win Iowa by that much. Although I think he will carry it against Biden, Iowa is a state where Biden might be able to improve over Hillary Clinton, perhaps bringing it down to a 3-5% Trump win. But I agree with you about Ernst. This race is Likely/Safe Republican, and Ernst will win relatively easily in the end, probably by double digits, though she's not going to do as well as the state's institution, Chuck Grassley, did in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R. Trump could lose Iowa by 5 points and Ernst would still win by 5. But Trump will win Iowa by double digits this time, and Ernst could win by 20 points or more.

I'm not sure Trump is going to win Iowa by that much. Although I think he will carry it against Biden, Iowa is a state where Biden might be able to improve over Hillary Clinton, perhaps bringing it down to a 3-5% Trump win. But I agree with you about Ernst. This race is Likely/Safe Republican, and Ernst will win relatively easily in the end, probably by double digits, though she's not going to do as well as the state's institution, Chuck Grassley, did in 2016.

Since when is a 6 pt lead safe R, that was the last poll done on this race in Feb?

[Calthrina950]

Safe R. Trump could lose Iowa by 5 points and Ernst would still win by 5. But Trump will win Iowa by double digits this time, and Ernst could win by 20 points or more.

I'm not sure Trump is going to win Iowa by that much. Although I think he will carry it against Biden, Iowa is a state where Biden might be able to improve over Hillary Clinton, perhaps bringing it down to a 3-5% Trump win. But I agree with you about Ernst. This race is Likely/Safe Republican, and Ernst will win relatively easily in the end, probably by double digits, though she's not going to do as well as the state's institution, Chuck Grassley, did in 2016.

Since when is a 6 pt lead safe R, that was the last poll done on this race in Feb?

I've bolded the relevant portion; notice that I didn't blatantly declare it "Safe R", and notice what I said about Biden's prospects in the state. Iowa has traditionally been a highly volatile swing state, and it could trend in the Democrats' favor, but the state seems to be going in the opposite direction at the present time. I fully expect Ernst to outperform Trump, and she will definitely win reelection if he wins the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

6 pts isnt safe R and Dems are defending 3/4 Congressional seats there and Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012 and so did Clinton 92 and 96, Ernst isnt Geassley, she only beat Braley, because Braley was a nobody. Reynolds only won the state by 3 pts

[Xing]

Likely R. Obviously not a top target unless there’s a recession, but I don’t buy that she’s going to win by 20 or overperform Trump by 10 because muh folksy retail politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldnt underestimate Franken, this isnt 2014 or 2016 anymore, its 2018 and after and Franken can beat Ernst