1976: Ford/Rockefeller vs Carter/Mondale

[Frodo]

Suppose President Ford had not turned to Kansas Sen. Bob Dole as his running-mate, and instead remained with his original vice-president, Nelson Rockefeller.  Presented with these two tickets, how would you have voted in 1976?

[afleitch]

I would be more likely, as a Rockefeller fan, to back Ford. However, if I was there at the time, I would probably have found myself 'sucked' into the whole Carter campaign and would probably have stuck with Carter.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Ford (normal)

[Bdub]

Gerald Ford

[phk]

Rockefeller makes a world of a difference.

[dazzleman]

Gerald Ford

So far, 92.3% for Ford.  Somehow, I don't think this poll is representative..

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Ford. You just have killed off the religious right/GOP alliance even before it starts. The social conservatives don't manage to domiante the post 1980 political sphere.

[Lincoln Republican]

My vote would have been for Ford/Rockefeller

With Rockefeller on the ticket, this may have been enough to swing the following states from Carter to Ford

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

These states were won with narrow margins by Carter.  Rockefeller on the ticket would have played well in these states, perhaps enough to put them into the Republican column. 

This would have then resulted in the following:

Ford/Rockefeller          345
Carter/Mondale           193

[Lincoln Republican]

Another possibility is that with Rockefeller on the ticket, this may have been detrimental to Ford in Oklahoma and Virginia, which were won by narrow margins by Ford.  I do not believe that Rockefeller on the ticket would have hurt the Republican ticket in any other close state that was won by Ford, in fact, in some of those close states, it would have helped to improve the GOP margin.

In this case, the results would hyave been as follows:

Ford/Rockefeller          325
Carter/Mondale           213 

[Lincoln Republican]

It's interesting that when one looks at the electoral map of 1976, it was the last time the Democrats showed that kind of strength in the south.  The Democrats rebounded somewhat in the south with Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but not to the extent the Democrats showed in 1976, and Democratic strength in the south in Presidential elections has been down ever since.

It seems to me, as of late, that to some extent the Democrats have "written off" the south as far as Presidential elections go, and pay lip service in the south during Presidential election campaigns.

Anybody agree with me in this assessment, or am I going to get some violent denials to this statement?

Comments would be of interest.

[True Democrat]

Carter would have a good shot at Midwestern states like Iowa, South Dakota and even Kansas, North Dakota, and Montana.  All of these were very close, and Dole really helped Ford here.

[jokerman]

It's interesting that when one looks at the electoral map of 1976, it was the last time the Democrats showed that kind of strength in the south.  The Democrats rebounded somewhat in the south with Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, but not to the extent the Democrats showed in 1976, and Democratic strength in the south in Presidential elections has been down ever since.

It seems to me, as of late, that to some extent the Democrats have "written off" the south as far as Presidential elections go, and pay lip service in the south during Presidential election campaigns.

Anybody agree with me in this assessment, or am I going to get some violent denials to this statement?

Comments would be of interest.

Of course if you look at the county map, Democrats did well in the south in 1980 as well.  Just flip that margin 5 points closer to Carter and many of those Southern states flip.

[PBrunsel]

Carter: 322 EV

Ford: 216

Dole was chosen to appease Reaganites. With the liberal and sleazy Rocefeller on the ticket the Reaganites and Moral Majority members would not have voted, giving Carter an easy win.

[Lincoln Republican]

While it is true that Nelson Rockefeller was dropped from the ticket, in short, because many Republicans believed he was too liberal, and he was replaced by the conservative Bob Dole, I do believe Rockefeller would have helped the Republican ticket in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, possibly enough to swing these states to Ford.  These are states Ford narrowly lost.  Carter may then have won Iowa, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia, states Carter narrowly lost.

In this scenario, the results would have been

Ford/Rockefeller        288
Carter/Mondale         250

California could have become the key, which, in 1976, with Rockefeller on the ticket, could have gone to Carter, which would then give Carter 295 EV to 243 EV for Ford, and a win for Carter.  In reality, Ford only won California by a margin of 1.78%, so California could easily have gone either way.   

[jokerman]

Not too much different.  Carter still wins, and improves his PV Vote margin.  The absence of Dole's conservatism plays a much bigger role than the new prescence of Rockefeller's progressivism.  New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Virginia go for Carter and his margin of victory in other southern states bumps up considerably.  However, Carter's victories in Wisconsin and Ohio were razor thin and Rockefeller manages to help Ford pull those two states for him.  But, it's not enough to pull off a win in the all-important New York, where in real life Carter had a solid 4 1/2 point victory.