COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, probably a real-life example of Insane Troll Logic (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/InsaneTrollLogic):

White House counselor Kellyanne Conway had been publicly pushing for a return to televised coronavirus briefings. On July 17, Conway told Fox News that she believed daily presidential addresses to the nation on coronavirus would improve Trump’s sagging poll numbers.

“The president's numbers were much higher when he was out there briefing everybody on a day-by-day basis about the coronavirus. Just giving people the information,” Conway told Fox. “I think the president should be doing that.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/20/trump-televised-white-house-coronavirus-briefings-372927

[Roll Roons]

LOL, probably a real-life example of Insane Troll Logic (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/InsaneTrollLogic):

White House counselor Kellyanne Conway had been publicly pushing for a return to televised coronavirus briefings. On July 17, Conway told Fox News that she believed daily presidential addresses to the nation on coronavirus would improve Trump’s sagging poll numbers.

“The president's numbers were much higher when he was out there briefing everybody on a day-by-day basis about the coronavirus. Just giving people the information,” Conway told Fox. “I think the president should be doing that.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/20/trump-televised-white-house-coronavirus-briefings-372927

This is straight-up something out of Our Cartoon President (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Cartoon_President for those unfamiliar)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Here's the full Lancet article about the Oxford vaccine:
Safety and immunogenicity of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2

Concluding paragraph:

In conclusion, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was safe, tolerated, and immunogenic, while reactogenicity was reduced with paracetamol. A single dose elicited both humoral and cellular responses against SARS-CoV-2, with a booster immunisation augmenting neutralising antibody titres. The preliminary results of this first-in-human clinical trial supported clinical development progression into ongoing phase 2 and 3 trials. Older age groups with comorbidities, health-care workers, and those with higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 exposure are being recruited and assessed for efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 given as a single-dose or two-dose administration regimen in further trials conducted in the UK and overseas. We will also evaluate the vaccine in children, once sufficient safety data have been accumulated in adult studies. Phase 3 trials are now underway in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK and will evaluate vaccine efficacy in diverse populations.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Here’s the Lancet editor’s summary of the two vaccine results they are publishing today (Oxford and one from China)

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316111.pdf

It looks like the Oxford vaccine produced a t-cell response in all subjects, and an antibody response in more than 90% of subjects.  No serious adverse effects reported.

Excellent!

Still a ways to go and aiming for September might be on the optimistic end of the scale, but any positive news is always a plus!

Very good news:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/promising-coronavirus-vaccine-from-oxford-university-is-safe/12475332

In Australia, holding out might pay off if this vaccine works.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-elimination-or-suppression-economy/12472888

We are tossing up whether to chase elimination or supression.

[It’s so Joever]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

[Del Tachi]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55. 

And what are the chances of his developing some long-term negative effects from the virus?  He did say "health" as well as "life".  Death isn't the only risk. 

And what are his chances of passing the virus on to some other more at-risk person(s)?  This is not just an issue of individual risk; if it was, I'd have much less problem with people choosing to accept that risk for themselves.  But they're putting other people at risk as well, and as such this is a matter of public safety.

[MichaelRbn]

Dr. Fauci invited to throw out the first ball at the Washington Nationals opening game on Thursday.

[It’s so Joever]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55.  

Firstly, that’s with schools closed so that data is completely invalid for my age group.
Secondly, what the previous poster said, this virus has long term health consequences, and I do have a preexisting condition that this virus could potentially (although not likely) exacerbate.

[Bojack Horseman]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55. 

And if you survive you’re looking at permanent lung damage and other serious health problems as a result of having covid. It’s not as black and white as “live or die.”

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55.  

Firstly, that’s with schools closed so that data is completely invalid for my age group.

If you are going to make this argument, it is worth noting that Sweden kept their primary schools open. Sweden has had almost 6,000 covid deaths, a per capita death toll just below Italy.  But only one death was a child under 19 (and I believe this one was actually below school-age).

[Del Tachi]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55.  

And what are the chances of his developing some long-term negative effects from the virus?  He did say "health" as well as "life".  Death isn't the only risk.  

And what are his chances of passing the virus on to some other more at-risk person(s)?  This is not just an issue of individual risk; if it was, I'd have much less problem with people choosing to accept that risk for themselves.  But they're putting other people at risk as well, and as such this is a matter of public safety.

His odds are greater of sustaining lifelong injuries in a car accident than they are from COVID-19.  

Evidence concerning the long-term effects of COVID-19 is extremely limited.  All of the major studies about permanent damage from COVID-19 infection used hospitalized patients as the study population, which is not representative if up to 80% of cases are asymptomatic.  Hospitalized patients are going to generate worse outcomes by virtue of having been sicker, and school age kids have a COVID-19 hospitalization rate of only 5.3 per 100,000.  Permanent damage from other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS was associated with underlying diseases like diabetes or hypertension, which are heavily correlated with age and increased mortality.  The same risk factors are present whether we're talking about deaths, hospitalizations or "permanent damage," so the risk to school-aged kids is very minor at best.

As far as other at-risk persons, they should be taking measures to limit their personal contacts with individuals whose infection status they don't know.  Keeping schools closed is not a rational way to mitigate disease/mortality risk that is extremely concentrated in elderly populations.  The American Academy of Pediatrics recently published a paper confirming that child-to-adult transmission of COVID-19 is extremely rare.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Serious question: do you have a soul?

[emailking]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

[Del Tachi]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.  What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

[Del Tachi]

Serious question: do you have a soul?

1.  This is a lame comeback

2.  More of a soul then the majority of posters who want to keep disadvantaged kids away from the only possible avenue they have for education and self-betterment, I guess

[It’s so Joever]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.  What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

Honestly, I hope your entire family is forced into going into a poorly ventilated and crowded building of 3.7k people. Especially if they have preexisting conditions. Maybe then you will understand why I am so concerned.

[It’s so Joever]

The Republican party is a death cult.

https://twitter.com/stltoday/status/1285199041417158663

How is this not genocide?!
I am so damn tired of people such as Del Tachi and the other GOPers implying my health and life are expendable as a high school student.

If you're in high school, you're much much likelier to die of the flu or a car accident than COVID-19.  Colorado has less than 1 death per million people under age 35, and the odds of dying for those aged >75 are 100 times greater than those <55.  

And what are the chances of his developing some long-term negative effects from the virus?  He did say "health" as well as "life".  Death isn't the only risk.  

And what are his chances of passing the virus on to some other more at-risk person(s)?  This is not just an issue of individual risk; if it was, I'd have much less problem with people choosing to accept that risk for themselves.  But they're putting other people at risk as well, and as such this is a matter of public safety.

His odds are greater of sustaining lifelong injuries in a car accident than they are from COVID-19.  

Evidence concerning the long-term effects of COVID-19 is extremely limited.  All of the major studies about permanent damage from COVID-19 infection used hospitalized patients as the study population, which is not representative if up to 80% of cases are asymptomatic.  Hospitalized patients are going to generate worse outcomes by virtue of having been sicker, and school age kids have a COVID-19 hospitalization rate of only 5.3 per 100,000.  Permanent damage from other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS was associated with underlying diseases like diabetes or hypertension, which are heavily correlated with age and increased mortality.  The same risk factors are present whether we're talking about deaths, hospitalizations or "permanent damage," so the risk to school-aged kids is very minor at best.

As far as other at-risk persons, they should be taking measures to limit their personal contacts with individuals whose infection status they don't know.  Keeping schools closed is not a rational way to mitigate disease/mortality risk that is extremely concentrated in elderly populations.  The American Academy of Pediatrics recently published a paper confirming that child-to-adult transmission of COVID-19 is extremely rare.

Since you are so convinced I will be alright, how about you pay for my future medical bills?
You can Venmo me!

[Del Tachi]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.  What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

Honestly, I hope your entire family is forced into going into a poorly ventilated and crowded building of 3.7k people. Especially if they have preexisting conditions. Maybe then you will understand why I am so concerned.

Schools should be open for in-person instruction.  There's multiple potential ways to do this while being mindful of the potential threats of the virus.  Staggered schedules, outdoor instruction, improved ventilation, etc.

Requiring 100% at-home, online schooling is simply not a solution for American children or their families.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Serious question: do you have a soul?

1.  This is a lame comeback

No it's not when you keep talking about people like they are numbers on a board and not living, breathing, human beings.

[Del Tachi]

Serious question: do you have a soul?

1.  This is a lame comeback

No it's not when you keep talking about people like they are numbers on a board and not living, breathing, human beings.

"Treating people like numbers" means accurately understanding the threat poised by the virus; we can't build a national policy response around exceptional cases and outliers.  You apparently don't understand this, yet I'm the one who's "anti-science"?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Serious question: do you have a soul?

1.  This is a lame comeback

No it's not when you keep talking about people like they are numbers on a board and not living, breathing, human beings.

"Treating people like numbers" means accurately understanding the threat poised by the virus; we can't build a national policy response around exceptional cases and outliers.  You apparently don't understand this, yet I'm the one who's "anti-science"?

You are pro-science the same way Republicans are pro-life.

[It’s so Joever]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.  What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

Honestly, I hope your entire family is forced into going into a poorly ventilated and crowded building of 3.7k people. Especially if they have preexisting conditions. Maybe then you will understand why I am so concerned.

Schools should be open for in-person instruction.  There's multiple potential ways to do this while being mindful of the potential threats of the virus.  Staggered schedules, outdoor instruction, improved ventilation, etc.

Requiring 100% at-home, online schooling is simply not a solution for American children or their families.

Well first of all, you are putting words in my mouth. I never said full 100% online learning, but let me explain what my district is doing.
They have two options, either go back to the full capacity, reopened school (which is poorly ventilated, has 3.7k students, and was designed for less than 2k people, or to be forced to switch to an online program which offers about 30% of classes that regular schools do, and means you lose all your former school resources, your counselors, and possibly teacher recommendations.
Now do you see why I am upset as someone with a preexisting condition?
Literally ZERO of my classes are offered at this program, and unlike other districts in our area which  are webcasting/recording lessons, my school district refuses to do any of that and is willfully limiting options.
Finally, all parents had to make a decision by July 14th and it is binding for the entire year.
Maybe I sound entitled, but damn it, I shouldn’t be forced to choose between my life and my education. And if I am, that tells me a lot about this country.
This is reality for thousands of students nationwide, either you are unaware, or willfully ignorant of what schools are doing in many parts of the country.

[It’s so Joever]

Del Tachi your statistics don't take into account that most people under 35 in Colorado haven't had the virus yet, and the deaths per million for people under 35 (which is what you're using to estimate a given individual's chances) will be a lot higher if everyone gets the virus.

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.  What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

Honestly, I hope your entire family is forced into going into a poorly ventilated and crowded building of 3.7k people. Especially if they have preexisting conditions. Maybe then you will understand why I am so concerned.

Schools should be open for in-person instruction.  There's multiple potential ways to do this while being mindful of the potential threats of the virus.  Staggered schedules, outdoor instruction, improved ventilation, etc.

Requiring 100% at-home, online schooling is simply not a solution for American children or their families.

As for what I would want?
Firstly, differentiation between young and old kids. There is widespread evidence they react differently to the virus. I think a full reopening of ELEMENTARY schools would be safe in States that aren’t seeing huge outbreaks.
High schools must be treated differently, they are more crowded and teens spread/contract the virus at higher rates than young kids. I think the best thing to do would be an optional hybrid option. Kids who need it can go in twice a week for in-person instruction. They will be assigned certain times a week for this to prevent cross-contamination. Meanwhile, an equitable online class will be provided both for days kids aren’t in-person, and for those who want to stay online full time.
Finally, masks will be required for those who don’t have medical exemptions and we should try to hold some classes outdoors when weather permits.

[emailking]

That would only be the case if you expect the population distribution of new cases/deaths to wildly change the more infections there are.

The way you calculated it, it absolutely would. You took deaths/(total number of people) not deaths/(total number of cases). If there are more infections, there will obviously be more deaths, so the numerator increases and the denominator doesn't.

What evidence do you have that younger people haven't been getting the virus until now?

They have been getting the virus.