COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GeorgiaModerate]

7/3 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,890,588 (+53,399 | Δ Change: ↓6.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 132,101 (+616 | Δ Change: ↓10.33% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

7/4 (Today):

• Cases: 2,935,770 (+45,182 | Δ Change: ↓15.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 132,318 (+212 | Δ Change: ↓65.58% | Σ Increase: ↑0.16%)

The death count for 7/4 looks slightly off.  132,318 - 132,101 = 217, not 212.

[Brittain33]

I think what's probably happening is that the disease is taking off in the early states, only the sickest people got tested, so the median age of people who tested positive was super high. Since society was open when the first outbreaks started, the real infections were probably pretty much evenly distributed across the population. Now, the people getting infected are younger people who feel safe out and about, and since we now have vastly greater testing capabilities, we're picking all of them up; whereas, in NY in March young otherwise healthy people who got the virus would have largely been told to go home and only seek testing/medical care if they needed to go to the hospital.

I agree, I have at least 3 friends in their 40s who got sick in NYC and stayed home and managed it themselves because they knew there was no point in burdening a hospital or taking a scarce test.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1279773674149740544

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Another 10,059 cases in Florida's daily update. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Finally some good news, everyone!

The virus is taking the 4th of July weekend off!

A bunch of states, and counties within states have not been reporting testing results and deaths to varying degrees. Moreover, in some areas testing is shutting down for the holidays, either partially or in some cases entirely:

As U.S. Sets Coronavirus Records, Some Testing Sites Closing For Fourth Of July

TOPLINE

The coronavirus is spreading faster than ever across the U.S., but some communities are about to take a break from testing for the Fourth of July—a holiday that health experts are concerned might lead to gatherings that will make the spread even worse.



One of those states is Georgia, which has reported record new case counts over the past few days and now has a positive test rate of over 10%, making it one of many states where the percentage of tests coming back positive is on the rise.

DeKalb County, one of the state’s most populated and one that includes parts of Atlanta, is set to close down its County Board of Health testing centers for three days—shutting down on Friday and not reopening until Monday.

But Atlanta is far from alone in losing some testing sites for a while.

Sites in cities like San Francisco, Denver and Miami Beach are set to observe the Fourth of July holiday by closing for at least part of the weekend, as numerous other communities across the country are also set to temporarily stop testing.

This goes to show that Trump had it right all along - the virus will just disappear.

This also suggests a new policy to combat the virus and help it on its way to disappearance. Just make every day a holiday, give the virus a break. If we don't test on holidays, then there will be no more cases, and therefore no more virus. Congress should immediately enact the Every Day Is A National Holiday Act.

[Brittain33]

Another 10,059 cases in Florida's daily update. 

Corona isn’t taking the weekend off.

[Nyvin]

Not sure where you're getting the data about the protests and would like to see information backing that up. Here in Wisconsin, it's an increase among young people as well, but a large percentage traced back to bars, not protests.

Protests are not currently associated with Dane County's rise in COVID-19 cases

What the data look like today

Here’s a recap of the data from June:

622 people tested positive for COVID-19 in Dane County between June 1 through June 24. For the question "In the 14 days before symptom onset, did you attend a gathering, party, or meeting with people from outside your household":

•     288 answered "No."
•     213 answered "Yes", and of those, 12 said they had attended a protest.
•     6 answered "Unknown."

From June 13 through June 26, 614 people tested positive for COVID-19 in Dane County. Here’s what we know about these cases:

•     45% of cases interviewed reported attending a gathering or party with people outside of their household.
•     28% of cases (a total of 172) were associated with a cluster: 132 from bars, 14 from workplaces, 11 from congregate facilities, 3 from daycares/preschools, and 12 from other clusters.

Our data are not showing a large impact from protests at this time. This makes sense when thinking about what protests look like: they are outside, many people are wearing masks, and people are moving and not always near the same people for an extended period of time. With what we know about COVID-19, this activity is going to be less risky than gatherings that are indoors, do not have physical distancing, do not have people wearing masks, and include the same people near each other for extended periods of time.

Data Notes for the Week of June 29

49% of cases were between 18-25 (i.e. students or hangers-on at UW). Large numbers infected at bars. It is illegal for those between 18-21 to go to bars. Who goes to bars? People with lots of free time. Parents and those who have get up and go to work limit their time at bars. Protests and bars draw the same customers.

If you go to a kegger, you are pretending that it is like a household because it is in a house.

Bar goers go to protests, protesters go to bars to brag about their exploits. At both types of events, there are large interchanges. Older couples might go to a restaurant and enjoy meal with a glass of wine. They're not shouting to be heard.

You should join QAnon,  you'd be good at pushing conspiracy theories.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It is illegal for those between 18-21 to go to bars.

What?? I never got that memo.  

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Dear God.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Weird. If only there was something we could put over our mouths & nose that'd help stop the transmission of an airborne virus. Anybody got any ideas?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Weird. If only there was something we could put over our mouths & nose that'd help stop the transmission of an airborne virus. Anybody got any ideas?

Would typicals masks actually be effective against an airborne virus?  I thought the whole reason people thought masks were effective was that the coronavirus droplets were too large to fit through a mask.  But if they are just completely mixed with the air we breathe, wouldn’t they escape a mask just as easily as the air does? 

But masks do seem effective, so I’m a little skeptical of the this new “alert”.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Weird. If only there was something we could put over our mouths & nose that'd help stop the transmission of an airborne virus. Anybody got any ideas?

Would typicals masks actually be effective against an airborne virus?  I thought the whole reason people thought masks were effective was that the coronavirus droplets were too large to fit through a mask.  But if they are just completely mixed with the air we breathe, wouldn’t they escape a mask just as easily as the air does? 

But masks do seem effective, so I’m a little skeptical of the this new “alert”.

Masks are effective for airborne aerosols:

Considering infected subjects (i.e., source), the expiration range of SARS-CoV-2 aerosols can be effectively attenuated by any mask. Thus, homemade cloth masks should be promoted for use during the pandemic, particularly in countries currently experiencing so-called 'mask shortages'.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1279749506037317634?s=21

Weird. If only there was something we could put over our mouths & nose that'd help stop the transmission of an airborne virus. Anybody got any ideas?

MEANWHILE

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1279859772456611840

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have an explanation for how Qatar has 100,000 cases but only 128 deaths?

That’s a CFR of just over 0.1%, which seems impossibly low even if they are successfully identifying every infection.  (For comparison, the CFR is around 4% in the US and 15% in the UK.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

That's an insult to people with actual mental illnesses.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I know people expect holiday weekends to be especially low reporting days, but Nate Silver is reporting 70k more tests today with a 0.7% drop in positivity rates compared to last Sunday.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1279886003919085570?s=21

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

That's an insult to people with actual mental illnesses.

I do (seriously) wonder if there is some form of mental illness that can cause people to be more inclined to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, or outlandish beliefs in general.  But I don't know enough about it to have an informed opinion.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

That's an insult to people with actual mental illnesses.

I do (seriously) wonder if there is some form of mental illness that can cause people to be more inclined to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, or outlandish beliefs in general.  But I don't know enough about it to have an informed opinion.

I was directing that more towards the tweet than at you, just so you know.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

That's an insult to people with actual mental illnesses.

I do (seriously) wonder if there is some form of mental illness that can cause people to be more inclined to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, or outlandish beliefs in general.  But I don't know enough about it to have an informed opinion.

I was directing that more towards the tweet than at you, just so you know.

Np, I didn't think it was directed at me; I was just commenting on the possible association of mental illness and conspiracy theories.

[Hammy]

Sequel to ^^^

https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1279847406151106561

That's an insult to people with actual mental illnesses.

I do (seriously) wonder if there is some form of mental illness that can cause people to be more inclined to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, or outlandish beliefs in general.  But I don't know enough about it to have an informed opinion.

There are a number of mental illnesses where paranoid delusions are legitimately symptoms (schizophrenia, paranoid personality disorder, and some variants of dementia for example.)

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1279906540791779334

[It’s so Joever]

Does anyone have an explanation for how Qatar has 100,000 cases but only 128 deaths?

That’s a CFR of just over 0.1%, which seems impossibly low even if they are successfully identifying every infection.  (For comparison, the CFR is around 4% in the US and 15% in the UK.)

Aren’t the majority of infections in very young and strong migrant workers?
Maybe that would partially explain it, as that is the case with Singapore and they also have a low death rate.
There is also the possibility deaths are being covered up...