COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It would be a simple thing, then, for southern governors and health agencies to suggest residents turn off their A/C and open a few windows to tame the indoor spread of COVID. Oh, and wear face masks in public places where the A/C runs nonstop.

Is this a joke?  The high in Phoenix today is 111 degrees.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

[Storebought]

It would be a simple thing, then, for southern governors and health agencies to suggest residents turn off their A/C and open a few windows to tame the indoor spread of COVID. Oh, and wear face masks in public places where the A/C runs nonstop.

Is this a joke?  The high in Phoenix today is 111 degrees.

I wasn't aware Arizona is a Southern state?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It would be a simple thing, then, for southern governors and health agencies to suggest residents turn off their A/C and open a few windows to tame the indoor spread of COVID. Oh, and wear face masks in public places where the A/C runs nonstop.

Is this a joke?  The high in Phoenix today is 111 degrees.

I wasn't aware Arizona is a Southern state?

Well, ok, the high today is 90 in Dallas, 95 in Tampa, and 100 in El Paso.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

[Florida Man for Crime]

If the government is going to tell people they gotta do something, they should tell them they should stay OUTSIDE as much as possible, not inside.

This is a legitimate point, but it seems like you are under the impression that everywhere is rural Kentucky.

If you live in rural Kentucky, yes, stay outside as much as possible and frolic in the fields.

However, if you live in a high density urban area, you may be exposed to more people if you walk around on the sidewalk all day (there may not be fields around to frolic in) than if you stay in your home.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Case growth in the Sun Belt is being driven by summertime temperatures forcing people indoors (air conditioning), where spread is more common.

This is likely a significant part of what is going on, but it doesn't explain rises in cases which are occurring further north in temperate climates, most notably in places like Washington and Oregon. The high in Seattle is forecast to be 76 Fahrenheit today...

Over a 7-day moving average, there are also increases in cases in many other northern/midwestern states where the outbreak is not as severe - Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge-map-7714f8d1-5ba1-46f8-9bf3-5d59938f2c95.html

We can hope that those increases are just noise. Hopefully they are not just an early trend/sign indicating that the south/west is merely leading the way for the rest of the country (at least outside of the northeast).

The only region which clearly still has declining cases is the Northeast in particular.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I don’t understand why the fact that we haven’t seen a second wave in places like Italy or Spain (yet?) has anything to do with what’s going on in Texas right now.

Because they are the counterfactual showing what can be achieved with a competent response.

I think it is unlikely we will see a second wave in most Western European countries just because such a high percentage of their population has already been infected and is thus now immune.

Honestly, what on earth are you talking about?

USA has an estimated 4.9% of the population that has been infected so far.

https://covid19-projections.com/

NY: 16.5%.
TX: 1.5%
PA: 6.7%
NC: 2.1%
CA: 2.5%
FL: 2.9%
GA: 4.4%
LA: 9.1%
MI: 8.1%
AZ: 3.9%
WA: 2.5%
CO: 4.2%

Now let's compare internationally:

Italy: 10.3%
Austria: 1.4%
Greece: 0.3%
Germany: 1.8%
Spain: 7.9%
France: 8.9%
Belgium: 14.6%
UK: 8.5%
South Korea: 0.1%
Australia: 0.1%
Japan: 0.2%
Canada: 3.3%

Heck, even Sweden, which is not really trying to control the virus by policy, is only at 9.9% estimated of the population infected!

Before just making up stuff that is blatantly wrong, why not at least check and see what some sort of numbers/estimates are?

My god. If you just bother to look, you can see that there is some variation, but not that much. In Europe's hot spot countries, the % infected went up to roughly the mid-high teens at the most. Likewise in the American hotspots. And it is lower elsewhere, both internationally and in the USA. Granted, the estimates are surely not perfectly accurate, and if you look up another source you can probably find slightly different numbers, but there is not some vast general difference between USA and Europe/rest of the world in terms of how exposed we have been to the virus so far.

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

Hatred of the Chinese goverment and the political system that allowed this to happen is certainly not racist. Unfortunately for Trump, he's regularly praised the Chinese government's actions on the virus since the start of the year, so Trump kind of dug himself into a hole here on how we're supposed to interpret it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So far, failure to control the virus is reversing the limited economic gains that have been made by re-opening.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1276199933775941634



Partially and haphazardly closing, then re-opening, and then closing again properly and finally then being able to actually re-open is a far worse outcome than simply closing properly in the first place and then being able to sustainably re-open.

U.S. Recovery Looks to Be Ebbing in States With Virus Outbreaks

The U.S. economic recovery is showing incipient signs of weakening in some states where coronavirus cases are mounting.

The ebbing is evident in such high-frequency data as OpenTable restaurant reservations and follows a big bounce in activity as businesses reopened from lockdowns meant to check the spread of Covid-19.

“We’re now starting to see very early evidence that things are leveling off” in some of the states that reopened first and are now suffering rising virus cases, said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp.

[GP270watch]

 And so much of the stimulus spending has already gone to purchase trash corporate debt instead of going into the pockets of people so they can spend money on necessities and cover bills because of the economic shutdown/fallout.

[Storebought]

These southern/sunbelt state governors should stop grandstanding and just mandate (at the least) face masks be worn in public. Compare the steady number of cases in NM, one of the states that mandates face masks be worn in public, with the spiking (I haven't checked to see if they are exponential yet) growth rates in nearby AZ or TX.

As the above posts show, there is no economic benefit in rushing reopening just other places half a continent away have shown falling rates. That is one of the most mystical and absurd policy decisions I've seen ever anybody make.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

If you don't think that calling the coronavirus by that term used in Trump's tweet ends up leading to harassment and assaults against Chinese Americans and other Asian Americans, then you are deluding yourself.

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

If you don't think that calling the coronavirus by that term used in Trump's tweet ends up leading to harassment and assaults against Chinese Americans and other Asian Americans, then you are deluding yourself.

Again, hatred of China is not racist. Nationalism is not racist. You can say he's trying to whip up nationalism (which is true) but I hate China and lots of Americans hate China and it has nothing to do with the physical appearance of the bulk of its citizens. Trump has always tried to stir up nationalism, including against white European countries. You dont get to conflate literally everything with racism just because its convenient for you to avoid an argument.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m still failing to see how Italy and Spain can be seen as examples of success.  They are both top 5 among countries with the highest death rates.  Thousands of people likely died in those countries just due to hospital overcrowding and lack of resources and oversight. They seem to have suffered the worst outcomes of anywhere in the world.  Just because they are now seeing fewer deaths doesn’t mean they did a good job when it would have made the most difference.

If you want to talk about a success story, maybe point to Portugal.  They had a similar number of cases to Italy and Spain, with similar testing rates.  But they had about death rate about 75% lower (only about 150 deaths per million compared to aroun 600 in Italy and Spain).  There may have been several reasons for this, but a huge amount comes down to better treatment.  In particular, Portugal caught on the the use of dexamethasone steroids very early on.  

This is the sort of simple treatment that many contries failed to recognize at first, but which is now contributing to a huge drop in deaths in the US compared to a few months ago.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

If you don't think that calling the coronavirus by that term used in Trump's tweet ends up leading to harassment and assaults against Chinese Americans and other Asian Americans, then you are deluding yourself.

Again, hatred of China is not racist. Nationalism is not racist. You can say he's trying to whip up nationalism (which is true) but I hate China and lots of Americans hate China and it has nothing to do with the physical appearance of the bulk of its citizens. Trump has always tried to stir up nationalism, including against white European countries. You dont get to conflate literally everything with racism just because its convenient for you to avoid an argument.

Listen, I have nothing positive to say about the government of China, that government is run by dangerous authoritarians who care only about themselves and not their citizens. But it plainly the case that calling something the "ChinaVirus" (I feel disgusting even typing that) is going to whip up hatred against people with a Chinese family background and other people wrongly perceived as being Chinese, whether in China or the United States or elsewhere, and that those people targeted are going to face real dangers. It is grossly irresponsible that Trump is using that term, even if his intent - and I have my doubts that it is his intent -  is solely to criticize the government of China.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I’m still failing to see how Italy and Spain can be seen as examples of success.

Do you honestly not understand? It is hard to believe that can be the case, are you sure you are not just pretending not to understand in order to troll?

The difference between Italy/Spain and the USA (southern states in particular) is that whereas Italy/Spain had no idea that the virus was very serious and that it was already spreading significantly in their countries. When they did realize though, they acted decisively and fairly promptly (though they were definitely too slow and could/should have been prompter).

Italy and Spain can't realistically have been expected to stop the virus in January/February given that they didn't even know that it was there and it wasn't yet clear (at least to most people, though there were definitely alarm bells that should have been going off) that it would be a major problem.

By contrast, for the USA (and especially the southern states) it has been clear for months now that it would be a major problem and we still haven't done much to deal with it, at least not on a national level and not in many states (and due to the failed American experiment of federalism, we have to look on the state level).

So this is the difference between knowing that you have a problem and then dealing with the problem as soon as you realize that it is a problem, and realizing that you have a problem, but deciding not to bother dealing with it in the hopes that maybe somehow it will just stop being a problem on its own.

It is like if you find out that you have cancer. One response is to immediately seek treatment and follow the course of treatment recommended by the doctor. Another response is to maybe google a bit about the cancer, go and talk to a doctor about it, and the doctor says that you need chemotherapy, and then maybe you show up for the first chemotherapy session, but after that to decide "Hmm, isn't this fake news? Cancer is not real!" and not show up for the rest of the treatment. After all, maybe everything will get better on it's own! The human body is a wonderful thing, it can heal itself!

And while it is true that even the patient who properly got treated for the cancer maybe could have caught it sooner if they had been more attentive, it is hard to blame them too much for not acting before they realized that they actually had cancer. By contrast, the patient who skips out on chemotherapy is very much blameable because they knew that they had a problem and yet declined to do what was needed to fix it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It is like if you find out that you have cancer. One response is to immediately seek treatment and follow the course of treatment recommended by the doctor. Another response is to maybe google a bit about the cancer, go and talk to a doctor about it, and the doctor says that you need chemotherapy, and then maybe you show up for the first chemotherapy session, but after that to decide "Hmm, isn't this fake news? Cancer is not real!" and not show up for the rest of the treatment. After all, maybe everything will get better on it's own! The human body is a wonderful thing, it can heal itself!

People who get infected now are much more likely to tested and get treatment.  We wouldn’t even hear about most of these cases if people weren’t seeking diagnosis and treatment relatively early on.

This was not true of the majority of cases in Italy and Spain (in contrast, as I mentioned above, to Portugal).  You really think a lot of people who test positive for the virus are ignoring the treatment suggestions from doctors?  I haven’t really heard much indication of that.  

We have so many more effective treatments now than we did a few months ago.  Besides all the news we’ve heard about remdesivir, plasma transfusions, and steroids, some are as simple as laying patients on their stomachs ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/health/coronavirus-proning-lungs.html).  Whether the death rate continues to fall as it has for the past two months may depend on whether these improvements can continue to keep pace with new cases.  Maybe I’m just more optimistic about this than others, but the rapid progress we’ve seen so far is pretty miraculous.

[jamestroll]

I do not care that Covid-19 is spreading rapidly.

We. Must. Keep. The. Economy. Open.  At. Any. Cost.

The last lockdown resulted in no coherent plan to reopen the economy.

Why do people keep acting like this has to be extremes in one way or the other? We can keep the economy open (mostly) but still be safe with distancing, masks, etc.

The problem is that many states just flung the entire economy open like nothing happened and with no restrictions and THAT is the problem, because people can't be bothered to do the f**king bare minimum.

However, for you to say that you 'don't care' that it's spreading rapidly and thus killing more people is incredibly insane to me. Not only that, but speak for yourself. Some states did NOT have a coherent plan, but some, like PA where i live, HAVE had one. And that's why we've been able to mitigate cases actually pretty damn well up to this point.

I would like now for states to either revert back to a previous phase or put brakes on progressing into new phases of reopening. At this point it would be the best way to avoid another shut down. Which has to be the absolutely last resort.

I am not a mask nazi but I strongly recommend everyone wears masks going forward. The same people who are anti-mask are the same people screaming to keep the economy opened.

But up to me no more moving into new phases for now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump's anti-mask crusade will be recorded as one of the greatest own goals in American political history.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1276184906159271937

It speaks volumes about how Trump views his base voters that, whenever things are going badly for him, he goes back to the racism to rally his floor of like 40%.

Hatred of China is not racist.

If you don't think that calling the coronavirus by that term used in Trump's tweet ends up leading to harassment and assaults against Chinese Americans and other Asian Americans, then you are deluding yourself.

Again, hatred of China is not racist. Nationalism is not racist. You can say he's trying to whip up nationalism (which is true) but I hate China and lots of Americans hate China and it has nothing to do with the physical appearance of the bulk of its citizens. Trump has always tried to stir up nationalism, including against white European countries. You dont get to conflate literally everything with racism just because its convenient for you to avoid an argument.

Listen, I have nothing positive to say about the government of China, that government is run by dangerous authoritarians who care only about themselves and not their citizens. But it plainly the case that calling something the "ChinaVirus" (I feel disgusting even typing that) is going to whip up hatred against people with a Chinese family background and other people wrongly perceived as being Chinese, whether in China or the United States or elsewhere, and that those people targeted are going to face real dangers. It is grossly irresponsible that Trump is using that term, even if his intent - and I have my doubts that it is his intent -  is solely to criticize the government of China.

More to the point, regardless of any debate whether hatred of China, or more accurately the Chinese government, is racist or not, it's absolutely incontrovertibly scapegoating and blame shifting by Trump, who is quite culpable in completely failing to address this crisis.

Even if One Believes Trump's invoking China isn't racially-tinged, all that does is remove the cherry on top of an otherwise still- enormous failure sundae.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276240972062613505
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1276242764334804998

[Smeulders]

It is like if you find out that you have cancer. One response is to immediately seek treatment and follow the course of treatment recommended by the doctor. Another response is to maybe google a bit about the cancer, go and talk to a doctor about it, and the doctor says that you need chemotherapy, and then maybe you show up for the first chemotherapy session, but after that to decide "Hmm, isn't this fake news? Cancer is not real!" and not show up for the rest of the treatment. After all, maybe everything will get better on it's own! The human body is a wonderful thing, it can heal itself!

People who get infected now are much more likely to tested and get treatment.  We wouldn’t even hear about most of these cases if people weren’t seeking diagnosis and treatment relatively early on.

This was not true of the majority of cases in Italy and Spain (in contrast, as I mentioned above, to Portugal).  You really think a lot of people who test positive for the virus are ignoring the treatment suggestions from doctors?  I haven’t really heard much indication of that.  

We have so many more effective treatments now than we did a few months ago.  Besides all the news we’ve heard about remdesivir, plasma transfusions, and steroids, some are as simple as laying patients on their stomachs ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/health/coronavirus-proning-lungs.html).  Whether the death rate continues to fall as it has for the past two months may depend on whether these improvements can continue to keep pace with new cases.  Maybe I’m just more optimistic about this than others, but the rapid progress we’ve seen so far is pretty miraculous.

I think you probably are. We've heard a lot about new treatments because those are interesting news stories. From the numbers I have heard, none of these improved treatments have impacts that would explain the differences in case fatality rates. I can be convinced otherwise, but if I had to guess the largest effects would be increased testing catching many more mild cases, and simply different reporting standards. We've seen that there are large differences in excess deaths vs. reported covid deaths between countries and regions. As the epidemic moves into Republican controlled states, I expect increased underreporting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYC reports no protest-related upticks in Covid-19.