COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

Yeah, this is news to me. 

[Person Man]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

Yeah, this is news to me. 

I don't think he was trying to be taken literally. This forum is disproportionally privileged though.

[jamestroll]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

Yeah, this is news to me. 

I don't think he was trying to be taken literally. This forum is disproportionally privileged though.

Exactly.  That's my point and I didnt mean millionaires literally lol.

But I am stunned that a large segment of this forum and general population think indefinite lockdowns for years are a logical choice. Those people are either wealthy, can work from home, elderly or do not need to work.

[Person Man]

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

What on Earth gives you that impression?

Yeah, this is news to me.  

I don't think he was trying to be taken literally. This forum is disproportionally privileged though.

Exactly.  That's my point and I didnt mean millionaires literally lol.

But I am stunned that a large segment of this forum and general population think indefinite lockdowns for years are a logical choice. Those people are either wealthy, can work from home, elderly or do not need to work.

I can work from home but my girlfriend was furloughed. One of my brothers is looking for a first job after a double major in Econ and Psych, a MS in Econ, and a MPA from mid-tier public schools (Oregon, Wyoming, and Montana State). He's moving to Harvard because his girlfriend got a postdoc there. He's much more grounded than I am and he's somewhat technical because of the Econ (he burnt out before the Ph.D.) but his future is uncertain. I know that he can PROBABLY get a job as a data analyst or business analyst at either a bank or a big Indian consulting firm but I don't know who would be hiring in this environment. He also doesn't understand that he is probably starting around $55000 or $65000 a year instead of $80000. Though I don't know. In a place like Massachusetts, I think if he got a job as a direct hire, he could be at 70k and if he gets it a consulting, it would be at 60k. If it were in Florida or Arizona, those would be like 60k and 50k respectively.  Maybe with two three years' experience he can get 80. My best friend also faces an uncertain future after he decided to quit work for his boss after his boss harassed his wife. It happened just before the lock down. My other brothers are OK, though. One is a respiratory therapist and one is a Psychologist at the VA. They'll be fine.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So US deaths have passed 45k while still averaging roughly 2k a day. Is the Trump administration still claiming that the eventual death toll will be 60k? They'll likely cross that before the month is over.

trump put himself in a terrible position on this

He spent months Attacking Obama and Biden over the 12,000 deaths that the swine flu had caused

Now by the time this is all over the death toll will be much bigger than it ever was with swine flu and it was also but a lot bigger than trumps own optimistic  60k projection.

good luck explaining that away to the voters in November

Not really. You're in the midst of an anti-Trump fantasy. He simply turns to Dr Birx and asks for guidance.

She said 60-65k a couple of days ago. That may change.

The USA is in the grips of a national emergency, and you are drooling over these deaths hoping for more to prove a point with a pre-pubescent forum post.

You have the wrong perspective on this pandemic.

I don’t think anyone wants more deaths and it’s awful you’d suggest that.

I am fervently anti-Trump, and while I recognize he’s done a terrible job, I still hope he’ll do well. The fact is, Republicans have never taken this crisis as seriously as it very clearly is. That’s why you have a few reopening way too early and others who took way too long to shut down. And with Trump giving conflicting advice and openly encouraging dissent among the populations of Democratic states. He is sowing mistrust and creating even more panic, all for political purposes.

I don't often get considered intelligent replies about Trump, but that qualifies your thoughts well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1252957045780865027

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Can we stop pretending that we will be all locked down for years and that it will be worth it past June?

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

Almost all of this article is about problems that will be much more prominent in the global south than the United States...

The areas in the US experiencing the most poverty and what is historically some of the worst health care in the country are experiencing some of the heaviest case loads and fatalities (reservations, urban centers, factories and processing plants staffed by immigrants and blue collar workers). In addition to having more comorbidities, people in these communities typically work manual or service jobs deemed essential. In other words, being "incentivized" to continue to participate in the labor force is making these people more sick than the white collar workers who can stay at home. Notably, the (astroturfed) "liberate" movements and TV pundits talking about reopening the economy don't have any representation from these communities.

Containing the virus versus keeping people fed is of course a false choice in the United States. This is why the social safety net exists. Just give people money. We already do this in several forms; just temporarily scale it up for a few months.

[jamestroll]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Can we stop pretending that we will be all locked down for years and that it will be worth it past June?

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

Almost all of this article is about problems that will be much more prominent in the global south than the United States...

The areas in the US experiencing the most poverty and what is historically some of the worst health care in the country are experiencing some of the heaviest case loads and fatalities (reservations, urban centers, factories and processing plants staffed by immigrants and blue collar workers). In addition to having more comorbidities, people in these communities typically work manual or service jobs deemed essential. In other words, being "incentivized" to continue to participate in the labor force is making these people more sick than the white collar workers who can stay at home. Notably, the (astroturfed) "liberate" movements and TV pundits talking about reopening the economy don't have any representation from these communities.

Containing the virus versus keeping people fed is of course a false choice in the United States. This is why the social safety net exists. Just give people money. We already do this in several forms; just temporarily scale it up for a few months.

As the economy continues to deteriorate people from all sectors will begin to be laid off due to lack of demand.

And we are doing everything atrociously right now. Georgia, Tennessee and Texas are opening up prematurely which will only cause the spread of the virus to accelerate. We just are not ready yet.

We can't say we will temporarily scale up safety nets for a few months when it will be years with the way we are operating this entire crisis. We are putting ourselves in a box in which we will have to wait for a vaccine.

[Koharu]

We're not going to be doing this for years.

Researchers are learning everything they can about this virus. As we learn more, we can adjust our response. In addition, life will carry on. Humans are extremely adaptable and if this continues to be a threat to the degree it currently is, we will find ways to feed people and get people working again, even if it doesn't look the same as it once did

If nothing else, we'll start producing hazmat suits and people will start wearing them at all times when outside their homes. We'll be like the Quarians from Mass Effect. I know this seems ridiculous, but humans are flipping ingenious and will likely figure out something much better than what I've laid out here.

[Nyvin]

Here's a good question - How do these protest to re-open fit in with the Republican saying "All Lives Matter"?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If nothing else, we'll start producing hazmat suits and people will start wearing them at all times when outside their homes. We'll be like the Quarians from Mass Effect. I know this seems ridiculous, but humans are flipping ingenious and will likely figure out something much better than what I've laid out here.

That might be better than what we have now, but we'll have to think of something much better.

I'm tired of thinking every object or building outside my apartment is contaminated.

[Koharu]

Here's a good question - How do these protest to re-open fit in with the Republican saying "All Lives Matter"?

"Sick and old people should just stay home."

[Calthrina950]

Giving out money would be a better answer in a country that was capable of getting a check to everyone within a couple of weeks, or that had a functioning system of unemployment insurance.

This fragile and humiliating state of affairs is the result of decades of political decisions, but no amount of political will can reverse that savage reality in time to get help to everyone who would need it during a lockdown of six months or more.

In short, everyone is afraid, no one knows exactly what to do, and the circumstances that we face are so unprecedented that projections about either the economy or the virus remain extremely uncertain (discounting hyperbolic claims such as Beet's assertion in the first COVID thread that 5% of the world's human population would die).

The rest of 2020 is going to be very uncertain, and so will the first months of 2021 until a vaccine is approved. If a second wave hits in the fall, what will be done? The past month's experience has shown that we can't afford to go on lockdown again, without risk of further damaging the economy. And how effective have the precautions we taken been? I think it's likely coronavirus will infect as many people (~60 million) as were infected by the swine flu a decade ago.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/raywert/status/1252949333772820480?s=20

[free my dawg]

Very interesting how very few of the protests in my state have targeted our governor. I'm sure this is a coincidence.

[Person Man]

Giving out money would be a better answer in a country that was capable of getting a check to everyone within a couple of weeks, or that had a functioning system of unemployment insurance.

This fragile and humiliating state of affairs is the result of decades of political decisions, but no amount of political will can reverse that savage reality in time to get help to everyone who would need it during a lockdown of six months or more.

In short, everyone is afraid, no one knows exactly what to do, and the circumstances that we face are so unprecedented that projections about either the economy or the virus remain extremely uncertain (discounting hyperbolic claims such as Beet's assertion in the first COVID thread that 5% of the world's human population would die).

The rest of 2020 is going to be very uncertain, and so will the first months of 2021 until a vaccine is approved. If a second wave hits in the fall, what will be done? The past month's experience has shown that we can't afford to go on lockdown again, without risk of further damaging the economy. And how effective have the precautions we taken been? I think it's likely coronavirus will infect as many people (~60 million) as were infected by the swine flu a decade ago.

If it turns out to be that, our system will be overrun as it is currently designed. I don't think it will be that bad, though. That would translate to at least a million and perhaps a couple million deaths. We've already lost about as many Americans as we did in Vietnam, and we're not even out of the first full month of the thing but I think we will probably get to 60000 "soon" and eventually get to 100000 -150000.

[Mr. Reactionary]

https://twitter.com/raywert/status/1252949333772820480?s=20

Yeah, I doubt you'll see numbers like that if we r still locked down in June. Especially when we were all sold the bill of goods on the understanding that our common goal was to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed in the months of march and April. We'll all still get it they said, the goal isn't to prevent infections, thats impossible, we just need to flatten the curve immediately to give them an extra month to prepare. That was what was preached. Now its "well if we ever open up again without a vaccine they'll be overrun so this is indefinite now. Dont worry, we'll get you lovely welfare checks ... but dont dare protest... or go vote."

That's why we keep saying the goal posts are moving. We were told flatten the curve for march and April, not prevent the disease from spreading by whatever means necessary in perpetuity well beyond April.

[Beet]

This article points to sewage as a possible means of epidemic detection.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/coronavirus-found-paris-sewage-points-early-warning-system

I could see this being standard in the future for disease control. Regularly measure human waste for viruses to track emerging outbreaks.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Giving out money would be a better answer in a country that was capable of getting a check to everyone within a couple of weeks, or that had a functioning system of unemployment insurance.

This fragile and humiliating state of affairs is the result of decades of political decisions, but no amount of political will can reverse that savage reality in time to get help to everyone who would need it during a lockdown of six months or more.

In short, everyone is afraid, no one knows exactly what to do, and the circumstances that we face are so unprecedented that projections about either the economy or the virus remain extremely uncertain (discounting hyperbolic claims such as Beet's assertion in the first COVID thread that 5% of the world's human population would die).

Sure, I absolutely agree with this. There is no denying that the majority of people in this country are going to come out of this time period much worse than they were going into it and government assistance can't fully remedy that (even if it could supplement household income, there is a lot of damage due to a tearing social fabric, loss of institutions, deaths of family and friends, etc. which government checks can't fix).

My point is, all of these arguments about when to "reopen" the economy are ultimately political arguments about what policy makers and enactors should and shouldn't do. But it's a false dichotomy to say that governments (federal, state and local) are deciding between lockdowns and people's income. If you accept that, e.g., sitting in your car and honking at the Michigan state capitol building is sufficient political action for ending lockdowns, you should also accept that, e.g., putting political pressure on your state legislators to fix your unemployment insurance system is also an option for protecting people without income.

The reason this isn't discussed as a viable option is that most people see it as laughable that many governments would actually provide any sustained assistance here. Despite being a broadly popular nobody seriously thinks people like Mitch McConnell or Robin Vos will make meaningful or sustained efforts here. The nation has been so shocked by decades of ideological devotion to austerity and ghoulish disregard for the poor that it can't even dream to demand the most common-sense assistance right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1252989153626796032

[Badger]

Latest update to my firms efforts to get funding to get us through. We're doing reasonably well, amazingly enough, due to having laid off most of our staff. The amount of work I have I had assumed would run out by the end of the week for about 3 weeks now. However, I think this week might be it.

We were approved for a significant SBA loan, but the key word here is loan. This is not a PPP loan which can be forgiven and covers payroll, rent, health insurance, and one other major thing I can't remember. Our application for a PPP Grant was, I kid you not, lost by the SBA we discovered yesterday. It was all so infuriating to learn that apparently since the SBA was receiving 800 applications per hour, the bank's merely cherry-picked the biggest companies to Grant loans to. So small firms like mine got screwed, while taxpayer dollars went to places like Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. Small business support indeed!

Anyway, Congress apparently appropriated more money for the program yesterday so we are back in line for a grant ( or as Mister reactionary blithely refers to it "welfare checks". Awfully cheeky coming from a guy whose paycheck is entirely taxpayer-funded). In the meantime my wife and I may very well have to apply for unemployment this weekend. :

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Latest update to my firms efforts to get funding to get us through. We're doing reasonably well, amazingly enough, due to having laid off most of our staff. The amount of work I have I had assumed would run out by the end of the week for about 3 weeks now. However, I think this week might be it.

We were approved for a significant SBA loan, but the key word here is loan. This is not a PPP loan which can be forgiven and covers payroll, rent, health insurance, and one other major thing I can't remember. Our application for a PPP Grant was, I kid you not, lost by the SBA we discovered yesterday. It was all so infuriating to learn that apparently since the SBA was receiving 800 applications per hour, the bank's merely cherry-picked the biggest companies to Grant loans to. So small firms like mine got screwed, while taxpayer dollars went to places like Ruth's Chris Steakhouse. Small business support indeed!

Anyway, Congress apparently appropriated more money for the program yesterday so we are back in line for a grant ( or as Mister reactionary blithely refers to it "welfare checks". Awfully cheeky coming from a guy whose paycheck is entirely taxpayer-funded). In the meantime my wife and I may very well have to apply for unemployment this weekend. :

Hang in there, Badger!

[PSOL]

Joseph Stiglitz on the pandemic response

Donald Trump’s botched handling of the Covid-19 crisis has left the US looking like a “third world” country and on course for a second Great Depression, one of the world’s leading economists has warned.

In a withering attack on the president, Joseph Stiglitz said millions of people were turning to food banks, turning up for work due to a lack of sick pay and dying because of health inequalities.

The Nobel prize-winning economist said: “The numbers turning to food banks are just enormous and beyond the capacity of them to supply. It is like a third world country. The public social safety net is not working.”

Stiglitz, a long-term critic of Trump, said 14% of the population was dependent on food stamps and predicted the social infrastructure could not cope with an unemployment rate that could hit 30% in the coming months.

Well shoot, guess we have a lot more turbulence on the horizon.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1252808909456203776

I was coming here to post this.  Here's the CNN article. 

CDC tissue samples now confirm that the earliest U.S. death from COVID-19 occurred on Feb. 6, and the decadent had no known travel history.  This implies that community spread was already happening in California in early-to-mid January.  This is more good evidence that most cases are asymptomatic and the true CFR is being overestimated.   

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-n-warns-hunger-pandemic-amid-threats-coronavirus-economic-downturn-n1189326

Can we stop pretending that we will be all locked down for years and that it will be worth it past June?

I know most people on this forum come from households earning millions a year but...

Almost all of this article is about problems that will be much more prominent in the global south than the United States...

The areas in the US experiencing the most poverty and what is historically some of the worst health care in the country are experiencing some of the heaviest case loads and fatalities (reservations, urban centers, factories and processing plants staffed by immigrants and blue collar workers). In addition to having more comorbidities, people in these communities typically work manual or service jobs deemed essential. In other words, being "incentivized" to continue to participate in the labor force is making these people more sick than the white collar workers who can stay at home. Notably, the (astroturfed) "liberate" movements and TV pundits talking about reopening the economy don't have any representation from these communities.

Containing the virus versus keeping people fed is of course a false choice in the United States. This is why the social safety net exists. Just give people money. We already do this in several forms; just temporarily scale it up for a few months.

As the economy continues to deteriorate people from all sectors will begin to be laid off due to lack of demand.

And we are doing everything atrociously right now. Georgia, Tennessee and Texas are opening up prematurely which will only cause the spread of the virus to accelerate. We just are not ready yet.

We can't say we will temporarily scale up safety nets for a few months when it will be years with the way we are operating this entire crisis. We are putting ourselves in a box in which we will have to wait for a vaccine.

The Georgia plan is insane and needs to be distinguished from what is happening in Tennessee and Texas.  The later both have less of a problem to begin with and are moving 2 weeks later than Georgia and allowing stricter measures to continue in urban counties.