COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

I think the IHME and Meclazine’s models will be proven inaccurate as well, but do note that there is a margin of error within these things due to problems with reporting and natural variation. The number of deaths today still seems to be within the MoE of the projections, so don’t be too pessimistic.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

Looking at the data it seems to be backlog in a few states

[PSOL]

Amazon staff take off work to raise safety concerns in pandemic

A U.S. labor and activist coalition said employees of Amazon.com Inc would take off work starting on Tuesday to draw attention to what it says are unsafe conditions at warehouses during the coronavirus pandemic.

The action involves more than 350 of Amazon’s staff from 40 facilities, according to the coalition. The world’s largest online retailer has faced several worker protests and demands by unions for it to close warehouses down.

[Devout Centrist]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media.  

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him.

3.  Healthcare rationing is present in every discrete medical interaction.  Every potential course of treatment contains an implicit cost/benefit analysis for the patient, institution and broader health system.  If it takes COVID-19 for us to realize that 80+ year olds really shouldn't be going to ICU to begin with, then at least our healthcare will (thankfully) be cheaper in the long run.

(mostly infirm, would have died anyway of other things pretty soon)

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

I think the IHME and Meclazine’s models will be proven inaccurate as well,

No? This is a backlog of unreported cases. Meclazine predicted a peak of active cases nationally two days ago. I see nothing which disproves that.

[Grassroots]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

You might want to tone it down.

I don't think I will. People shouldn't be able to purposefully misinterpret another person's statement to make them seem bad or wrong.

[Lincoln Republican]

CNN is reporting information from CDC Director that a second wave of the coronavirus may hit this winter, deadlier than the first.

Get ready!

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

The cases are going to have a longer tail that many models predicted. Particularly with dumbass governors like in Georgia.

[PSOL]

Small business loan program discriminated against women, minorities: lawsuit

...

The lawsuit was brought by Glitz and Glam Jewelry by LJ, solely owned and operated by LeTresa Williams, and by Alvin Vaughn, sole owner and operator of a financial services business.

They alleged that the loan program, which ran out of money last week, allowed businesses with employees to apply for loans before those without, which they said are disproportionately owned by women and minorities.

...

White House mulls liability protection for reopening businesses: Trump adviser

I see this administration has its priorities in order.

[Grassroots]

Small business loan program discriminated against women, minorities: lawsuit

...

The lawsuit was brought by Glitz and Glam Jewelry by LJ, solely owned and operated by LeTresa Williams, and by Alvin Vaughn, sole owner and operator of a financial services business.

They alleged that the loan program, which ran out of money last week, allowed businesses with employees to apply for loans before those without, which they said are disproportionately owned by women and minorities.

...

White House mulls liability protection for reopening businesses: Trump adviser

I see this administration has its priorities in order.

That's quite a stretch and you know it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the question of whether the life of an old person is worth less than a young person, here is a blog post by a sometimes outrageous but usually interesting economist: http://www.thebigquestions.com/2020/04/20/are-old-lives-worth-less/.

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

The cases are going to have a longer tail that many models predicted. Particularly with dumbass governors like in Georgia.

Well they haven't shown that they will. Every moment throughout the crisis, the result has been better than the projections. Almost every state, minus a handful, are seeing new case rates falling. Backlogs don't count.

I doubt that the reopening of a select amount of businesses in GA will have any real effect.

[PSOL]

Small business loan program discriminated against women, minorities: lawsuit

...

The lawsuit was brought by Glitz and Glam Jewelry by LJ, solely owned and operated by LeTresa Williams, and by Alvin Vaughn, sole owner and operator of a financial services business.

They alleged that the loan program, which ran out of money last week, allowed businesses with employees to apply for loans before those without, which they said are disproportionately owned by women and minorities.

...

White House mulls liability protection for reopening businesses: Trump adviser

I see this administration has its priorities in order.

That's quite a stretch and you know it.

No, I meant it how I meant it.

[DabbingSanta]

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

The cases are going to have a longer tail that many models predicted. Particularly with dumbass governors like in Georgia.

Well they haven't shown that they will. Every moment throughout the crisis, the result has been better than the projections. Almost every state, minus a handful, are seeing new case rates falling. Backlogs don't count.

I doubt that the reopening of a select amount of businesses in GA will have any real effect.

This is because people and governments have taken action designed to prevent reaching those projections!  Do you people not understand cause-and-effect?  The logic you and others keep repeating is like this:

A husband and wife are driving down the highway.  The husband is driving and going way above the speed limit.  The wife warns him to slow down or he'll get a speeding ticket.  He does so in time to avoid a speeding ticket from the motorcycle cop hiding behind a billboard, who he never sees.  They arrive at their destination and the husband says "see, I didn't need to slow down!  We could have been here a lot sooner if I'd kept up to speed."

Statistical models are a moving target that are based on certain assumptions and behaviors.  If you change any of those behaviors, then of course the results will change.  How can you follow elections and not understand this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.

[Frodo]

I don't want you Republicans to complain about 'death panels' ever again.  

[DabbingSanta]

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.

I don't know. I don't want to play God, I think that's up to Him. I believe we can fight this disease with reasonable measures without going overboard.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.

I don't know. I don't want to play God, I think that's up to Him. I believe we can fight this disease with reasonable measures without going overboard.

That's what I meant.  What do you consider reasonable measures beyond which we shouldn't go?

[Beet]

As if this couldn't get any weirder, a white hat hacker group has just posted the online login information for all employees of the WIV, CDC, NIH, WHO, and the Gates Foundation. They say they are going through the data now, but one authentic appearing screenshot from an employee of the Wuhan Institute of Virology appears to show a discussion of inserting an HIV single nucleotide protein into a coronavirus. If this is true, prepare for World War III.

[DabbingSanta]

It's not that old people are worth less than young people, they are just more susceptible to dying. Is it really worth it trying to shut down society to "save them" when they are at the end of their lifespan anyway? My 93 year old grandmother passed last year, and she was a great lady. Good quality life until the last few weeks. She died of something easily preventable, but it was missed during much of her hospital stay. By the time we had an idea what was wrong many of her organs were failing. I was upset about this at her death bed, upset at how the health system seemingly failed her. She told me it was ok and that she had lived a long life anyway. She didn't hold any malice towards anyone, and she passed six hours later. Maybe I've strayed a little off topic but I think this is important. Death is a part of life and we can't destroy society trying to prolong the inevitable for the chronically ill and elderly. It might sound heartless to us but when you are in their boat I think the mindset changes.

Do tell us where you'd draw the line.

I don't know. I don't want to play God, I think that's up to Him. I believe we can fight this disease with reasonable measures without going overboard.

That's what I meant.  What do you consider reasonable measures beyond which we shouldn't go?

I think large gatherings, concerts, schools, and the like should remain closed through the summer. Small business settings should be allowed to operate as long as they are following social distancing rules. Large office like settings should be work from home until we see an 80 to 90% reduction from peak. Restaurants should be open but take out and drive thru only. Unconstitutional travel bans and stay at home orders should be lifted. Parks should be partially open - keep playgrounds and sports fields closed but allow people to park and walk outside.

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.

The cases are going to have a longer tail that many models predicted. Particularly with dumbass governors like in Georgia.

Well they haven't shown that they will. Every moment throughout the crisis, the result has been better than the projections. Almost every state, minus a handful, are seeing new case rates falling. Backlogs don't count.

I doubt that the reopening of a select amount of businesses in GA will have any real effect.

This is because people and governments have taken action designed to prevent reaching those projections!  Do you people not understand cause-and-effect?  The logic you and others keep repeating is like this:

A husband and wife are driving down the highway.  The husband is driving and going way above the speed limit.  The wife warns him to slow down or he'll get a speeding ticket.  He does so in time to avoid a speeding ticket from the motorcycle cop hiding behind a billboard, who he never sees.  They arrive at their destination and the husband says "see, I didn't need to slow down!  We could have been here a lot sooner if I'd kept up to speed."

Statistical models are a moving target that are based on certain assumptions and behaviors.  If you change any of those behaviors, then of course the results will change.  How can you follow elections and not understand this?

You don't understand. The results are better than the projections that factored in social distancing. I'm not arguing for a premature relaxation of the restrictions, i'm just saying the truth to own the alarmists.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Sadly, regardless of how the election goes, Trump will still be President if this hits in December. I especially can't imagine that he'd be any more motivated to competently deal with it if he becomes a lame duck.

[PSOL]

As if this couldn't get any weirder, a white hat hacker group has just posted the online login information for all employees of the WIV, CDC, NIH, WHO, and the Gates Foundation. They say they are going through the data now, but one authentic appearing screenshot from an employee of the Wuhan Institute of Virology appears to show a discussion of inserting an HIV single nucleotide protein into a coronavirus. If this is true, prepare for World War III.

Source?