COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

[Calthrina950]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

I've been mainly reading media reports discussing infants, children, and teenagers who have died from coronavirus, including people who had no underlying medical conditions. Those reports were basically aiming to address the claims of individuals who said that younger people were "invincible" in light of this pandemic.

[It’s so Joever]

I think that the following states should begin opening up now(Phase two)
-Alaska (except for Anchorage)
-Hawaii
-Parts of East Washington
-Idaho (Except for Boise)
-Montana
-Vermont
-Maine (except for Portland)

By May 1st, many more States and the excluded cities should be able to safely begin opening up.
 That being said, some States are doing things way too prematurely. Some need a sharper decline in cases (Like Georgia) or significantly more testing (Like Colorado) before it is safe.

What's stopping someone from going from say, California/Washington/Oregon, and going to Montana and causing another outbreak though?

I mean, States should also be banning non-essential interstate travel (with a few exceptions for border communities)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think that the following states should begin opening up now(Phase two)
-Alaska (except for Anchorage)
-Hawaii
-Parts of East Washington
-Idaho (Except for Boise)
-Montana
-Vermont
-Maine (except for Portland)

By May 1st, many more States and the excluded cities should be able to safely begin opening up.
 That being said, some States are doing things way too prematurely. Some need a sharper decline in cases (Like Georgia) or significantly more testing (Like Colorado) before it is safe.

What's stopping someone from going from say, California/Washington/Oregon, and going to Montana and causing another outbreak though?

I mean, States should also be banning non-essential interstate travel (with a few exceptions for border communities)

This would need to be a lot more than a “few exceptions”.  There are many major cities where a significant fraction of people who work in those cities live in a different state.  I’ve had several jobs where I lived in a different state than I worked, and thus travelled interstate multiple times every day.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

I've been mainly reading media reports discussing infants, children, and teenagers who have died from coronavirus, including people who had no underlying medical conditions. Those reports were basically aiming to address the claims of individuals who said that younger people were "invincible" in light of this pandemic.

Right, it's objectively true that there's non-zero risk to people of every age. I have no idea where this claim that it was "sensationalized" for young people comes from, and why a comparison with the most vulnerable age group population is warranted at all.

This also ignores the fact that young people, if infected, can spread the virus to old people. I saw much more coverage about young healthy people as potential disease vectors than I did about young people actually dying.

[Calthrina950]

It's worth noting that in that CDC link the death counts are incomplete.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

So you can't say with certainty that there's more of one type than any other. This being a representative sample (17K deaths out of 40K+) is reliant on there not being any discrepancies or differences in reporting by state/locality, place of death, etc.

Worth noting as well that several states are experiencing outbreaks in nursing homes and elderly care facilities. If you look at these numbers, the number of total deaths 75+ is 4x the number of nursing home deaths. We have no way of knowing how many 75+ year olds are in nursing homes, but when you have outbreaks in facilities dominated by old people, you're going to have a lot of mortality.

But also the dig on the media (?) is very bizarre. When did anybody ever assert this thing was nearly as deadly to young people as the elderly? I heard plenty of reporting that the exact opposite was true.

I've been mainly reading media reports discussing infants, children, and teenagers who have died from coronavirus, including people who had no underlying medical conditions. Those reports were basically aiming to address the claims of individuals who said that younger people were "invincible" in light of this pandemic.

Right, it's objectively true that there's non-zero risk to people of every age. I have no idea where this claim that it was "sensationalized" for young people comes from, and why a comparison with the most vulnerable age group population is warranted at all.

This also ignores the fact that young people, if infected, can spread the virus to old people. I saw much more coverage about young healthy people as potential disease vectors than I did about young people actually dying.

I've mentioned that above. That alone provides justification for the measures that have been taken, and the warnings that have been issued. I noted on here how some of my "classmates" were mocking the virus when it was in its early stages, stating that it was nothing more than the flu. Such sentiments, hopefully, have been reduced now because of what has happened. Any strategy to deal with coronavirus must continue to educate the general public-especially younger people-on how to protect themselves, while quarantining those who are sick and promoting the most practical sanitary practices for nursing homes, assisted living facilities, etc. as possible.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/1252620525647663104

It looks like there will be no vote-by-mail in the coming elections, meaning that the results will be illegitimate.

[Skill and Chance]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1252400233662693377?ref_src=tws...

Patrick went on: "There are more important things than living, and that's saving this country for my children and my grandchildren and saving this country for all of us.

"I don't want to die, nobody wants to die but man we have got to take some risk and get back in the game and get this country back up and running," he told the Tucker Carlson Tonight host.

Isn't he also the one who said we may have to sacrifice a bunch of old people so young people can live

Yes.  Fortunately the Governor of Texas has been ignoring him and going more gradually than other Southern states. 

[Grassroots]

The treatment front:

-Remdesivir
Status: Very Promising

-Plasma treatments
Status: Very Promising

-Hydroxychloroquine
Status: Questionable

-Colchicine
Status: Interesting

-Malarial Drugs
Status: Losing battle

-Nitric Oxide
Status: Interesting

-Baricitinib
Status: Interesting

[GP270watch]

The treatment front:

-Remdesivir
Status: Very Promising

-Plasma treatments
Status: Very Promising

-Hydroxychloroquine
Status: Questionable

-Colchicine
Status: Interesting

-Malarial Drugs
Status: Losing battle

-Nitric Oxide
Status: Interesting

-Baricitinib
Status: Interesting

 What about Ivermectin? I've read some promising stories mostly anecdotal though.

 Also Avigan(Favipiravir) the Japanese flu drug has been used in China and Japan for treatment.

[It’s so Joever]

The treatment front:

-Remdesivir
Status: Very Promising

-Plasma treatments
Status: Very Promising

-Hydroxychloroquine
Status: Questionable

-Colchicine
Status: Interesting

-Malarial Drugs
Status: Losing battle

-Nitric Oxide
Status: Interesting

-Baricitinib
Status: Interesting

They should do research on medicinal Marijuana for Covid-19. Considering Cannabis helps with many other diseases, it may as well be looked into.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.

[Grassroots]

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.

Why would they do that? It's in september?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The early estimates of years of life lost per COVID-19 death range between ten and fifteen years, which of course means that around half of those who die are losing more than that.

The 10-15 year average sounds about right to me.  

But this distribution is going to be left-skewed, so the median is likely to be higher than the mean (the majority of people will lose less than the mean because the minority who lose more than mean will lose a lot more).  

You’d have a mean of 10 years if nine 80-year olds each lose 5 years of life for every one 30-year old who loses 55 years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1252643727811756034

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1252643727811756034

This is interesting.  Georgia seems like the libertarian version of Michigan in terms of handling this.  Nail salons and movie theaters are on a totally different level from parks and beaches.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/1252620525647663104

It looks like there will be no vote-by-mail in the coming elections, meaning that the results will be illegitimate.

It's April. There's still a ton of time and a ton of bills left.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He is a sociopath. This man has no soul.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1252377769075281922

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/1252620525647663104

It looks like there will be no vote-by-mail in the coming elections, meaning that the results will be illegitimate.

It's April. There's still a ton of time and a ton of bills left.

Setting up a national vote-by-mail system takes time, though. And the Democrats are showing no sign of realizing this.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/jonmladd/status/1252620525647663104

It looks like there will be no vote-by-mail in the coming elections, meaning that the results will be illegitimate.

It's April. There's still a ton of time and a ton of bills left.

Setting up a national vote-by-mail system takes time, though. And the Democrats are showing no sign of realizing this.

Well we don’t have much of a choice in this matter, now do we?

[Calthrina950]

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.

Why would they do that? It's in september?

It seems like virtually every major event worldwide has been canceled or delayed at this point. This is going to be a joyless summer for many, but I recognize the necessity for these precautions.

[Grassroots]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

[7,052,770]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

You might want to tone it down.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

[Roll Roons]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/nyc-sees-coronavirus-deaths-surge-with-744-reported-in-one-day/

At least for NYC, a lot of it seems to come from a backlog catching up.