COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Hammy]

I don't find an English language article yet, but a German study from Leipzig University found that air pollution and severe covid-19 cases are likely connected. According to the study, it's not a final proof and needs more research, but a strong indicator. They looked at pollution levels and death rates and found some connection. Especially with regard to Northern Italy.

It would explain why New York seems to have a higher fatality rate.

[Hammy]

Holy crap these people on twitter are dangerously stupid! Fauci is apparently part of the "Deep State" according to Trump supporters on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/va_shiva/status/1252312219653718016?s=20

How is conservatism not classifiable as a mental health crisis at this point?

[KaiserDave]

Very proud of the resilience and vigilant efforts of my city

[Storr]

Holy crap these people on twitter are dangerously stupid! Fauci is apparently part of the "Deep State" according to Trump supporters on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/va_shiva/status/1252312219653718016?s=20

How is conservatism not classifiable as a mental health crisis at this point?

What on Earth is "Truth Freedom Health"?

Also, of course they pander to the antivaxers: "Dr. Fauci has significant and deep conflicts of interest with Big Pharma that has a singular aim: Force medical mandates e.g. vaccines upon all Americans. Big Pharma is failing, and is in economic peril. Forced and mandated vaccines are the only path for Big Pharma’s future."

[Grassroots]

Holy crap these people on twitter are dangerously stupid! Fauci is apparently part of the "Deep State" according to Trump supporters on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/va_shiva/status/1252312219653718016?s=20

How is conservatism not classifiable as a mental health crisis at this point?

These aren't conservatives, they are lolbertarians.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

89 of Tennessee's 95 counties will have "the vast majority" of businesses open on May 1st, with some things set to open on April 27th.  The 6 exceptions are the Big 4 Cities plus Madison and Sullivan Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1252220777115549699

[Dr. Arch]

How are today's numbers looking?

Too early to know. Check again in about 5 hours.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1252220777115549699

I read this (quite long) article this morning and by the end of it, it was still unclear to me why Giroir was fired at his previous university.  It honestly made him sound like one of the more competent people in this administration (though that is not saying much).

[Grassroots]

89 of Tennessee's 95 counties will have "the vast majority" of businesses open on May 1st, with some things set to open on April 27th.  The 6 exceptions are the Big 4 Cities plus Madison and Sullivan Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

Tennessee's cases haven't lowered yet tho.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/politics/larry-hogan-wife-yumi-korea-coronavirus-tests.html

This is what leadership looks like - Imagine if we had this man as our president. No matter how slim his chances may be, I will drop everything and campaign my heart out for him in 2024.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/politics/larry-hogan-wife-yumi-korea-coronavirus-tests.html

This is what leadership looks like - Imagine if we had this man as our president. No matter how slim his chances may be, I will drop everything and campaign my heart out for him in 2024.

So glad he is my governor!

[anthonyjg]

Georgia will start re-opening some businesses this week https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-allow-some-shuttered-businesses-reopen-amid-pandemic/jKbtfWKHOvqMStwhPf9oFI/

[HillGoose]

89 of Tennessee's 95 counties will have "the vast majority" of businesses open on May 1st, with some things set to open on April 27th.  The 6 exceptions are the Big 4 Cities plus Madison and Sullivan Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

YES

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy crap these people on twitter are dangerously stupid! Fauci is apparently part of the "Deep State" according to Trump supporters on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/va_shiva/status/1252312219653718016?s=20

These are the people who unironically shout "lIbErAlIsm iS a MEnTaL dIsOrDer!"

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

[Grassroots]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

And? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Seems highly dishonest to me to compare the observed outcomes with the upper limit of the projections instead of the mean of the projections.

[Hammy]

Georgia's reopening so I'll just be resigning myself to my inevitable death as my health isn't great.

[Mr. Reactionary]

SARS-COV-2 might be here to stay as it becomes endemic.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-may-be-here-to-stay

Projections by specialists suggest that periodical physical distancing measures may become a necessity if the new coronavirus becomes a seasonal occurrence.

In the study paper, which appears in the journal Science, the researchers explain that it is likely that the new coronavirus will become endemic, with infections ebbing and flowing throughout the coming years. The same happens with cold and flu viruses.

This being the case, the authors suggest that physical distancing may become an intermittent requirement until 2022.

To understand how transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 might evolve, the researchers looked to the dynamics of two seasonal coronaviruses: beta-coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. These are two common human coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms.

According to the team’s simulation, infections with SARS-CoV-2 might also become a seasonal occurrence, as is the case with the other beta-coronaviruses that infect humans.

Because there are currently no vaccines or targeted treatments for infections with the new coronavirus, the researchers project that on-and-off physical distancing may be a necessary measure over the next couple of years. This is to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

“What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent [physical] distancing periods,” says Kissler.

The investigators emphasize the need to strike a balance between healthcare capacity and economic resources on a case-by-case basis.

On the one hand, they say that some transmission of the virus may create a level of herd immunity, which could reduce its impact.

“By permitting periods of transmission that reach higher prevalence than otherwise would be possible, they allow an accelerated acquisition of herd immunity,” notes study co-author Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

On the other hand, too-stringent physical distancing measures might mean that humans cannot establish herd immunity at all, which would make a resurgence of the virus particularly problematic.

According to the study paper, “longer and more stringent temporary [physical] distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size.”

In other words, this study wants to move the goalposts so far we can't even see them anymore.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

And? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

I was just posting the chart stop being so God damn snarky

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/us/politics/larry-hogan-wife-yumi-korea-coronavirus-tests.html

This is what leadership looks like - Imagine if we had this man as our president. No matter how slim his chances may be, I will drop everything and campaign my heart out for him in 2024.

This is like the best thing I’ve heard a politician do all month.
500k tests would get MD close to Iceland levels of testing.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

And? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

I was just posting the chart stop being so God damn snarky

except it is a blatantly dishonest chart

Seems highly dishonest to me to compare the observed outcomes with the upper limit of the projections instead of the mean of the projections.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

And? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

I was just posting the chart stop being so God damn snarky

except it is a blatantly dishonest chart

Seems highly dishonest to me to compare the observed outcomes with the upper limit of the projections instead of the mean of the projections.

Of course people like you would think its dishonest

[HagridOfTheDeep]

SARS-COV-2 might be here to stay as it becomes endemic.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-may-be-here-to-stay

Projections by specialists suggest that periodical physical distancing measures may become a necessity if the new coronavirus becomes a seasonal occurrence.

In the study paper, which appears in the journal Science, the researchers explain that it is likely that the new coronavirus will become endemic, with infections ebbing and flowing throughout the coming years. The same happens with cold and flu viruses.

This being the case, the authors suggest that physical distancing may become an intermittent requirement until 2022.

To understand how transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 might evolve, the researchers looked to the dynamics of two seasonal coronaviruses: beta-coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. These are two common human coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms.

According to the team’s simulation, infections with SARS-CoV-2 might also become a seasonal occurrence, as is the case with the other beta-coronaviruses that infect humans.

Because there are currently no vaccines or targeted treatments for infections with the new coronavirus, the researchers project that on-and-off physical distancing may be a necessary measure over the next couple of years. This is to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

“What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent [physical] distancing periods,” says Kissler.

The investigators emphasize the need to strike a balance between healthcare capacity and economic resources on a case-by-case basis.

On the one hand, they say that some transmission of the virus may create a level of herd immunity, which could reduce its impact.

“By permitting periods of transmission that reach higher prevalence than otherwise would be possible, they allow an accelerated acquisition of herd immunity,” notes study co-author Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

On the other hand, too-stringent physical distancing measures might mean that humans cannot establish herd immunity at all, which would make a resurgence of the virus particularly problematic.

According to the study paper, “longer and more stringent temporary [physical] distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size.”

In other words, this study wants to move the goalposts so far we can't even see them anymore.

What idiot needs a study to tell them that the virus isn't going to magically disappear after we've "flattened the curve?" You talk about moving the goal posts. Lol. We are living in a reality where there is a hugely contagious virus waiting in the wings that has the potential to totally collapse health care systems everywhere if it's left to its own devices. There is no "normal" until a vaccine is sufficiently produced and administered. The year 2022 does not seem like a stretch.

Our provincial health officer has observed that average social contact has been reduced to 30% of what it was before in BC. Our government's modelling suggests we can open back up to 40-60% of the social contact we had before while still keeping the situation under control. Basically, that's the best we'll be able to get until a vaccine becomes available. If we let loose and get to 70%, we're looking at a return to sustained exponential growth.

There is a small margin of error and no easy solution. Accept this reality.