COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GeorgiaModerate]

Italy plans for phased reopening:

#Italy PM Conte lays out how lockdown will be eased. From 4 May:
- People can move within region but not beyond
- Visiting family members allowed but not social gatherings. With masks
- Private sport allowed (eg running)
- Parks reopening
- Funerals - max 15 ppl...
- Bars/restaurants will allow take-aways
- Professional athletes can train on their own behind closed doors
- Manufacturing, construction and wholesale companies allowed to restart

ALL of above with mandatory social distancing. Those with temperature must stay home...

...then from 18 May:
- Smaller construction businesses can reopen
- Libraries, museums, exhibition venues allowed to reopen
- Sports teams can train behind closed doors.

AGAIN all with social distancing. And health ministry can intervene to stop things if curve spikes...

..then from 1 June:
PLANNED reopening of bars, restaurants, hairdressers, beauty salons.

So, phased unlocking of #Italy.
@GiuseppeConteIT
  repeats need for social distance. "If you love Italy, maintain your distance".

Italy will soon finally taste normality again.

One last thing: answering journalists' questions, PM Conte announced schools will remain closed until September.

https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1254487727233474560

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

What is the point of parroting these uncontrolled statistics with absolutely zero additional analysis or commentary?  Is the implication that 550k Americans are going to die from COVID-19?

The fact that The Bronx is nothing like the rest of America (in fact, the United States even including the Bronx is nothing like the Bronx) is a relevant point to consider when considering the progression of the pandemic.

Because the death rates in the boroughs of New York City, which is the most afflicted area in the U.S., are probably of general interest to people following the pandemic.  Not all statistics require additional commentary or analysis, and in many cases I prefer to just present the data without imparting any commentary that may be interpreted as spin.  But if you want some, I'll say that this may represent a good upper bound for the maximum death rate among localities in the U.S.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RudyGiuliani/status/1254513987196248065?s=20
Grandpa forgot to take his meds again

Duh, everyone knows that Obama has a time machine.  That's how he inserted his birth announcements in the Honolulu newspapers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since Arch seems to be a little late tonight, here's Nate Silver's summary from earlier today:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254525465592725504

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Imagine Trump having to acknowledge that God sent a plague to the U.S. because we elected Trump.

If you believe in signs from God, sending a plague and depression in the year Trump is up for reelection is a pretty strong message.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254825274786668546

Good news.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/meslackman/status/1254838397031464960

From the article:

That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.

The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254856060734550017

Something I've wondered: have other countries seen protests in favor of reopening such as those that have occurred in a number of U.S. cities?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1254877836852289540

“What I need to know is how many people have passed away in New York, and what I need to know is: Who has the bodies?” Diamond asked. “I need for somebody that does investigative work to call the morgues. To call the funeral homes. We need to know, because I don't trust anything else that comes out of his mouth now... Something's not right here. Something is off here.”

She added: “Is this being deliberately spread? Look, I’m not being a conspiracy theorist, this is real, but I’m asking my own questions. What the hell is going on?"

Silk, meanwhile, baselessly asserted that the disease was “man-made” and “engineered,” wondering aloud if there was a “little deep-state action going on behind the scenes.” She also questioned whether the World Health Organization had a “switch” to “turn this virus on and off?”

It's good to see that Fox will draw the line somewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1254900026314293250
If he's telling the truth, he's stupid; if a lie, he's dishonest.  Take your pick.

[GeorgiaModerate]

State and federal public health agencies plan to screen people in parts of Fulton and DeKalb counties over the next seven days for antibodies to the novel coronavirus to pinpoint who might have had COVID-19 and estimate how widely the virus has traveled.

The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state and local health boards in both counties will visit 420 randomly selected households through May 4 seeking volunteers to give blood samples.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/where-testing-learn-how-many-have-had-virus-begins/4NKAdP7IEWCEqPX00iUz3H/

Fulton and DeKalb counties are the core of metro Atlanta.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1255184301458669571

I do not see how the Executive Branch can unilaterally immunize these companies from liability.  Would one of our resident lawyers comment?

[GeorgiaModerate]

On Pence's visit to the Mayo Clinic:

https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1255211616746057733

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mask orders continue to spread across the country. Andy Beshear is now mandating all Kentuckians to wear masks in public by May 11: https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/WATCH-LIVE-Gov-Beshears-daily-COVID-19-update-569985941.html. Apparently, the general public will not be cited if they don't wear them, but they will be "asked" to put them on, and it will be mandatory for essential employees in businesses. The city of Birmingham, Alabama, is also making masks mandatory in public: https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/birmingham-eyes-requiring-masks-in-public.html. And in Colorado, Aspen is also requiring masks: https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/face-masks-mandatory-in-aspen/. Both Birmingham and Aspen will fine residents if they don't wear masks. Aspen is the first place in my home state that I am aware of that is making it mandatory.

How long do these mandatory masks orders last for I've seen as soon as they can last a year

Honestly why would this be a big deal? Mandatory masks in public spaces are much less intrusive than various closure/lockdown/stay-at-home rules.

Because you're telling people what to do.

My own views aside, people -- especially Americans -- get very touchy about being told what to do (or when they sense that they're being told what to do).

This is certainly true. For example, as I'm sure you're aware, this has arisen in your home state of Texas. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo issued an order last week mandating that all residents there wear masks in public, or face a $1,000 fine for not doing so. Governor Abbott, however, in issuing his executive order today outlining Texas's gradual reopening process, explicitly overruled the fine requirement, stating that local jurisdictions in Texas cannot fine or penalize people who don't want to wear masks. In addition to Harris County, Bexar, Travis, and Dallas Counties, and the city of Laredo had also issued mandatory mask orders. Any penalties from those orders are overridden as well.

I've also seen a number of articles discussing the traditional hostility in this country to wearing masks, which have typically been associated with government intrusiveness and with criminality (i.e. black inner-city "thugs", the Ku Klux Klan). Nevertheless, it seems like the majority of Americans have accepted it, and there is of course the example of the Spanish Flu from a century ago, when mask-wearing became common in many cities.

Regarding the last part, Georgia actually has a law that makes it a misdemeanor to wear a mask in public (with a few exceptions), dating from the Klan days.  Kemp suspended it during the state of emergency after concerns were raised that people could be prosecuted under it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now they’re estimating that 36 ppl got COVID at the WI primaries

Given that the projections estimate about 42,000 people in Wisconsin have been infected in total, this seems awfully low.

Don't forget that not everybody is being tested and there could be new asymptomatic carriers.

It also conflicts with this story from a few days ago that reported 40 cases in Milwaukee County alone linked to the election: https://www.wuwm.com/post/40-coronavirus-cases-milwaukee-county-linked-wisconsin-election-health-official-says.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I do not see how the Executive Branch can unilaterally immunize these companies from liability.  Would one of our resident lawyers comment?

Answer: the DPA has a broad immunity provision.

https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1255234701389856775

[GeorgiaModerate]

Among many interesting questions on the virus response in a new AJC/UGA poll:

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of Gov. Brian Kemp’s plans to reopen Georgia businesses in the next few days?

Strongly disapprove — 43%

Somewhat disapprove — 19%

Neutral — 14%

Somewhat approve — 14%

Strongly approve — 10%

[GeorgiaModerate]

With today's update, more Americans have now (officially) died from coronavirus (59,252) than in the Vietnam War (58,220).

In two months, as opposed to a nearly 20-year war.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Someone asked about Singapore recently:

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1255310843610349571

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is good news if true:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255550542295764996

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver's daily summary:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255622880336982017

[GeorgiaModerate]

Long and interesting report based on a national survey of 22,000+ from April 16-26:

http://www.kateto.net/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%20April%202020.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the record, on Tuesday morning I had a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism because of the lockdown.

Everyone who supported the lockdowns happy now?

I'm sorry to hear that and hope you're feeling better.  Of course nobody is happy about it.  But just out of curiosity, why do you blame the lockdown for it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp to lift statewide shelter-in-place for most Georgians on Friday

Gov. Brian Kemp will lift a statewide shelter-in-place order for most of Georgia’s 10.6 million residents starting Friday as he continues to roll back coronavirus restrictions, though he urges Georgians to stay at home when possible to contain the pandemic.

The order requires elderly and “medically fragile” residents to shelter in place until June 12, and calls for businesses to follow a host of existing restrictions through May 13 in order to remain open.