COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Landslide Lyndon]

About that V-shaped recovery.

https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1289981302272188416

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 8/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

New - Substituting the Δ Change metric as of 7/13 on dates starting from 7/5:
ΔW Change: Comparisons of Weekly Day-to-day Growth or Decline of COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Comparing the numbers to the same day of last week, are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

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7/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 3,896,855 (+63,584 | ΔW Change: ↑8.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.66%)
• Deaths: 143,269 (+392 | ΔW Change: ↑3.43% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

7/20: <M>

• Cases: 3,961,429 (+64,574 | ΔW Change: ↓1.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.66%)
• Deaths: 143,834 (+565 | ΔW Change: ↑21.51% | Σ Increase: ↑0.39%)

7/21: <T>

• Cases: 4,028,569 (+67,140 | ΔW Change: ↑2.36% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)
• Deaths: 144,953 (+1,119 | ΔW Change: ↑24.85% | Σ Increase: ↑0.78%)

7/22: <W>

• Cases: 4,100,875 (+72,306 | ΔW Change: ↑0.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.79%)
• Deaths: 146,183 (+1,230 | ΔW Change: ↑23.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.85%)

7/23: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,169,991 (+69,116 | ΔW Change: ↓11.70% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)
• Deaths: 147,333 (+1,150 | ΔW Change: ↑17.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

7/24: <F>

• Cases: 4,248,327 (+78,336 | ΔW Change: ↑4.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.88%)
• Deaths: 148,490 (+1,157 | ΔW Change: ↑22.30% | Σ Increase: ↑0.79%)

7/25: <S>

• Cases: 4,315,678 (+67,351 | ΔW Change: ↑6.47% | Σ Increase: ↑1.59%)
• Deaths: 149,395 (+905 | ΔW Change: ↑11.32% | Σ Increase: ↑0.61%)

7/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,371,839 (+56,151 | ΔW Change: ↓11.24% | Σ Increase: ↑1.30%)
• Deaths: 149,849 (+454 | ΔW Change: ↑15.82% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

7/27: <M>

• Cases: 4,433,392 (+61,553 | ΔW Change: ↓4.68% | Σ Increase: ↑1.41%)
• Deaths: 150,444 (+595 | ΔW Change: ↑5.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

7/28: <T>

• Cases: 4,498,343 (+64,951 | ΔW Change: ↓3.26% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 152,320 (+1,876 | ΔW Change: ↑67.65% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

7/29: <W>

• Cases: 4,568,037 (+69,694 | ΔW Change: ↓3.61% | Σ Increase: ↑1.55%)
• Deaths: 153,840 (+1,520 | ΔW Change: ↑23.58% | Σ Increase: ↑1.00%)

7/30: <Þ>

• Cases: 4,634,985 (+66,948 | ΔW Change: ↓3.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.47%)
• Deaths: 155,285 (+1,445 | ΔW Change: ↑25.65% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

7/31: <F>

• Cases: 4,705,889 (+70,904 | ΔW Change: ↓9.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.53%)
• Deaths: 156,747 (+1,462 | ΔW Change: ↑26.36% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

8/1 (Yesterday): <S>

• Cases: 4,764,318 (+58,429 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.24%)
• Deaths: 157,898 (+1,151 | ΔW Change: ↑27.18% | Σ Increase: ↑0.73%)

8/2 (Today): <Sunday>

• Cases: 4,813,647 (+49,329 | ΔW Change: ↓13.25% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)
• Deaths: 158,365 (+467 | ΔW Change: ↑12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

[Reaganfan]

Florida has the lowest one-day increase in two weeks. Hopefully a sign of things looking up. My buddy lives there and I was shocked they don't have a mandatory mask order.

[Omega21]

About that V-shaped recovery.

https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1289981302272188416

Looks like the US flattened the wrong curve

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290252674777133057
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290257055534551043

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

Cherokee always seems to start a little earlier than anyone else in metro Atlanta, although in general I agree that GA schools do start way too early.  My county (Forsyth) was scheduled to start this Thursday (the 6th) but has delayed it by a week.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

Cherokee always seems to start a little earlier than anyone else in metro Atlanta, although in general I agree that GA schools do start way too early.  My county (Forsyth) was scheduled to start this Thursday (the 6th) but has delayed it by a week.

The early start in the South has to do with farming (at least ancestrally), no? (Or at least that's the way it was explained to us in Texas). 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

Cherokee always seems to start a little earlier than anyone else in metro Atlanta, although in general I agree that GA schools do start way too early.  My county (Forsyth) was scheduled to start this Thursday (the 6th) but has delayed it by a week.

The early start in the South has to do with farming (at least ancestrally), no? (Or at least that's the way it was explained to us in Texas). 

I think that was the original reason for starting in August, as opposed to after Labor Day, as some parts of the country use.  But it used to be late August, and only in fairly recent times has it moved to early August (or even July 31 in Cherokee one year!)  AIUI, there were a couple of reasons for this:

1. They wanted to end the first semester before Christmas, so as not to have exams hanging over students' heads over the holidays.

2. Some districts wanted a more balanced schedule, with a shorter summer vacation and more breaks during the school year.

[Joe Biden 2024]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/us/gwinnett-schools-covid-employees/index.html

260 employees were either exposed or tested positive

[Del Tachi]

The new cases started going down as soon as they switched from the CDC to HHS. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything but if people wanted to make one there's plenty of fodder.

New cases aren't being reported to HHS, only hospital resource utilization is

[Del Tachi]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/us/gwinnett-schools-covid-employees/index.html

260 employees were either exposed or tested positive

Since when?  The article doesn't say. 

Doesn't really matter though.  GCPS have been closed since March, all of these cases were the result of spread within the community (not within schools).  How many kids have died of COVID in Gwinnett County?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The new cases started going down as soon as they switched from the CDC to HHS. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything but if people wanted to make one there's plenty of fodder.

New cases aren't being reported to HHS, only hospital resource utilization is

My biggest concern isn't necessarily fudging of the numbers, it's more that hospitals were apparently given little time to prepare for the system switch.

I've heard thru the grapevine that PENN Hospital wasn't given advanced warning of the new data consolidation. 

[Del Tachi]

Cherokee County, Georgia, a few miles to my west, is opening schools today.  Some highlights:

Out of 43K students, 23% will be starting remotely.  Whichever option parents decided (home or remote), they have to stay committed to that for the first nine weeks for elementary schools, and the entire fall semester for middle and high school.

Face masks are mandatory for teachers and staff, but only recommended for students.

Due to space constraints, they will not be able to consistently maintain six feet of distance between students.

The district is not doing temperature checks. They ask parents to check their child’s temperature before coming to school and getting on the bus daily, and the same goes for school staff.

I expect this to be a disaster.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/this-1st-day-school-cherokee-county-will-look-very-different-than-other-years/SXIPJOW2JJG3VPJTMFBT3OJQEU/

Aug. 3 is much too early even in a normal year. Other than that, I don't think there'll be any problems. I guess somebody had to go back early just to prove school is doable.

A lot of people have already been interacting like normal this summer, so school probably doesn't pose any new risks.

Cherokee always seems to start a little earlier than anyone else in metro Atlanta, although in general I agree that GA schools do start way too early.  My county (Forsyth) was scheduled to start this Thursday (the 6th) but has delayed it by a week.

The early start in the South has to do with farming (at least ancestrally), no? (Or at least that's the way it was explained to us in Texas). 

I think that was the original reason for starting in August, as opposed to after Labor Day, as some parts of the country use.  But it used to be late August, and only in fairly recent times has it moved to early August (or even July 31 in Cherokee one year!)  AIUI, there were a couple of reasons for this:

1. They wanted to end the first semester before Christmas, so as not to have exams hanging over students' heads over the holidays.

2. Some districts wanted a more balanced schedule, with a shorter summer vacation and more breaks during the school year.

A lot of older public schools in the Midwest and Northeast don't have air conditioning, so a later start is common in those places to avoid schooling during the hottest weeks of the year.

Air conditioning is a way of life in the Deep South. 

[Former President tack50]

A few weeks from now, there’s a good chance that those saying that Europe did so much better then the US at controlling the virus are going to look like Ron DeSantis bragging about how Florida responded better New York.

Spain has gone from averaging 300 cases/day a month ago to 2000 cases/day, and it looks like its second wave has just started growing.  Belgium, which already had the highest death rate in the world, has grown from 100 cases/day to 600 in the same time frame.  Even Germany has seen their cases double in the past two weeks.

Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of the virus, they just delay it.

Spain has more than twice the population of Florida and yet only a fifth of the cases.

Sure, and Florida could have said the exact same thing to New Jersey in May.

The problem in Spain isn’t even the total number of cases right now.  It is that after everyone had hailed them as a model response in contrast to the US, they’ve seen their cases double every week for the last three or four weeks.

If anyone put Spain as a model response, it should have been of what NOT to do considering we still are in the top 5 in terms of deaths per capita

[Person Man]

The new cases started going down as soon as they switched from the CDC to HHS. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything but if people wanted to make one there's plenty of fodder.

New cases aren't being reported to HHS, only hospital resource utilization is

My biggest concern isn't necessarily fudging of the numbers, it's more that hospitals were apparently given little time to prepare for the system switch.

I've heard thru the grapevine that PENN Hospital wasn't given advanced warning of the new data consolidation. 

If someone like you is in the dark, who knows what is happening. It's all really fishy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The new cases started going down as soon as they switched from the CDC to HHS. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy or anything but if people wanted to make one there's plenty of fodder.

New cases aren't being reported to HHS, only hospital resource utilization is

My biggest concern isn't necessarily fudging of the numbers, it's more that hospitals were apparently given little time to prepare for the system switch.

I've heard thru the grapevine that PENN Hospital wasn't given advanced warning of the new data consolidation. 

If someone like you is in the dark, who knows what is happening. It's all really fishy.

I mean, I'm not an insider by any means.  I have an understanding of virus behavior, treatments, etc. just by trade, but I'm definitely not privy to everything that goes on when it comes to hospital administration (and so forth).

Still, if what I've been told is correct, it's troubling that major hospitals like PENN were not kept in the loop. 

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290282508303716352
^ attacked Deborah Birx.

[jimrtex]

The early start in the South has to do with farming (at least ancestrally), no? (Or at least that's the way it was explained to us in Texas). 

School districts in Texas prefer an earlier August start because that lets them finish the semester before Christmas, have balanced semesters, have a full week of vacation at Thanksgiving, and not crowd Christmas.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1290282508303716352
^ attacked Deborah Birx.

Donald Trump attacked Nancy Pelosi for attacking Deborah Birx and then he went on to attack Deborah Birx.

[It’s so Joever]

You’ve heard about the school East of Indianapolis (Greenfield) but some other slightly disturbing incidences have been popping up in other parts of the Indianapolis metro area and a few Southern states.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.indystar.com/amp/5568721002

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.clarionledger.com/amp/5559279002

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article244449132.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsbtv.com/news/local/paulding-county/day-before-metro-atlanta-high-school-is-set-open-principal-reports-covid-19-cases/LDTCPDA7LNBKHA7BX5FT2NIKLE/%3foutputType=amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wthr.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/avon-high-school-staff-member-tests-positive-for-covid-19/531-eacc73d0-a5fa-4c8e-9e58-e44a3b14d02f

[It’s so Joever]

A few weeks from now, there’s a good chance that those saying that Europe did so much better then the US at controlling the virus are going to look like Ron DeSantis bragging about how Florida responded better New York.

Spain has gone from averaging 300 cases/day a month ago to 2000 cases/day, and it looks like its second wave has just started growing.  Belgium, which already had the highest death rate in the world, has grown from 100 cases/day to 600 in the same time frame.  Even Germany has seen their cases double in the past two weeks.

Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of the virus, they just delay it.

Spain has more than twice the population of Florida and yet only a fifth of the cases.

Sure, and Florida could have said the exact same thing to New Jersey in May.

The problem in Spain isn’t even the total number of cases right now.  It is that after everyone had hailed them as a model response in contrast to the US, they’ve seen their cases double every week for the last three or four weeks.

If anyone put Spain as a model response, it should have been of what NOT to do considering we still are in the top 5 in terms of deaths per capita

Indeed, and you are having a second wave anyways.

I would put Georgia (the country!!!), Latvia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia as model countries with their Covid response since they don’t get enough credit (damned New Zealand stealing all the fame )

[It’s so Joever]

A few weeks from now, there’s a good chance that those saying that Europe did so much better then the US at controlling the virus are going to look like Ron DeSantis bragging about how Florida responded better New York.

Spain has gone from averaging 300 cases/day a month ago to 2000 cases/day, and it looks like its second wave has just started growing.  Belgium, which already had the highest death rate in the world, has grown from 100 cases/day to 600 in the same time frame.  Even Germany has seen their cases double in the past two weeks.

Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of the virus, they just delay it.

Fair enough.
Lockdowns aren’t a strategy, they are a way of bringing cases down to the point you CAN have a good strategy.
If you are in a US or Italy situation, no amount of contact tracing will solve the issue.
I still would argue France and Germany did better than us, but Italy, Spain, and the UK are more debatable. However, combined those countries are doing better than us NOW.

Imho Vietnam is a good example of how we should have done things early on (although even they are going to have a wave soon)

[President Johnson]

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who worked for the Treasurey Department under Dubya and Obama and ran for California governor in 2014, proposes a 4-6 weeks lockdown to get things under control. I think this something that should be seriously looked into. A real president would call in scientists, economists and local leaders to a round table and discuss the matter. As long as the pandemic is out of control, there is not going to be sustainable economic recovery.

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1289944092382597121