COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Beet]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

If cases keep rising under the lockdown, how do you know when to end or ease the lockdown?
A lockdown isn't working if you have to stay under lockdown indefinitely.

Cases keep rising because it’s impossible to cut human contact. People will ignore the lockdown. People will still go out to get groceries and other necessities. Some don’t wear masks when doing so. People are still coming in (and out) of the state. Saying “cases still went up!” as an argument for why lockdowns don’t work is pretty weak.

It sounds like you are conceding that lockdowns don’t work in reality.
So if you institute a lockdown and for whatever reason, cases keep rising, is that specific lockdown working?  How do you know when to end it?

My good dude, I just said in an earlier post that the lockdown worked. Our hospitals were not overrun with sick and dying patients back in March/April and cases and deaths were low, especially compared to other states that were seriously hurting (NY/NJ/LA/MI/WA). I got a kidney stone in late April and was able to go to the emergency room and not wait because our hospital was not stressed and at capacity. The states that are seriously hurting now put no safety guidelines in place, or did so too late and now their hospitals are nearly or at capacity.

I also didn't say the cases still rose for "whatever reason". I laid it out pretty clearly. It's not as black and white as "lockdowns are ineffective because people are still getting sick when they're in place".

OK, but you still didn’t answer my question.  When should California have ended the lockdown?

He is not going to have any coherent answer on that. The pro-lockdown crowd just expects everyone to stay in their homes until every single living organism on planet earth has a coronavirus vaccine. And they are completely dismissive of the negative side effects of that such as mass evictions, starvation, increasing national debt, more mental health crisises, etc. Since their side does not care about those issues I have decided that I do not care if some people die over this. Too bad.

And I am not even advocating that we have places like Disney World open. We still need to maintain social strict social distancing, wear masks, and live life carefully under this reality.

Ironically I don't care if some people die of this because the anti-lockdown crowd insists it's okay if people die. Too bad.

But to answer the question, California has generally been doing lockdowns on the right schedule. The cases that are rising there are due to other factors, which I am not sure of. Perhaps the state's heavy homeless population is playing a role.

On the other hand, Arizona, Texas and Florida are seeing cases rise because they have been too reluctant to enforce lockdowns. Now, that is not to be dismissive of other concerns at all. I don't see why everyone thinks it has to be an either-or.

There is no either-or. There is only smart policy and dumb policy. Putting yourself in an either-or situation is a lose-lose, since both outcomes are very bad.

The correct solution? Lockdowns paired with eviction bans, paying people to stay home so they don't starve, and using some of that $3 trillion the Federal Reserve has pumped into the stock market to go to actual businesses and the national debt instead. Mental health is a concern, but it's worth pointing out that suicide rates actually went down in Japan, Germany and New Zealand, as well as the early months in India during lockdowns. Mental health is a complicated thing and some people may actually feel better without dealing with the pressures of everyday life. But if people are suffering mentally from the virus-- which is not uncommon, why can't the culprit be seen as the virus itself, rather than the public policy responses to contain it?

That, of course, is the essential problem and why I, who supports a lockdown (at least for my city) don't really think it's worth advocating for it very hard. Because it won't do any good if people don't have the mentality of a singular problem that needs to be solved by technical means, and instead turn this into another culture war. A divided society cannot win against COVID-19. It can only be won if seen as a wartime situation. During World War II, people sacrificed tremendously, millions of men left the country, went to die voluntarily, the women who stayed home went into the factories, consumer spending plunged, basic goods like Nylon weren't available, people delayed getting married and starting families. And that was just in the U.S., where the war didn't come to our shores. The effort in Europe and Asia were far greater. Why can't we have the same singularity of purpose against COVID-19? If anything, the moral cause is even clearer because there is no human enemy at all. I would rather sacrifice in a fight against a virus than a fight against my fellow man. But if people insist on their rights to go to restaurants, then they lack that collective will, and the virus won't be eradicated. There's nothing I can do about that, except try to delay my own getting infected for as long as possible.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

He is not going to have any coherent answer on that. The pro-lockdown crowd just expects everyone to stay in their homes until every single living organism on planet earth has a coronavirus vaccine. And they are completely dismissive of the negative side effects of that such as mass evictions, starvation, increasing national debt, more mental health crisises, etc. Since their side does not care about those issues I have decided that I do not care if some people die over this. Too bad.

Can't one think the lockdown wasn't long enough, based on the current situation of spiking cases, while not also knowing exactly how long it should have been? I'm not sure anyone knows how long it should have been.

So basically no plan whatsoever.

[Sir Mohamed]

He is not going to have any coherent answer on that. The pro-lockdown crowd just expects everyone to stay in their homes until every single living organism on planet earth has a coronavirus vaccine. And they are completely dismissive of the negative side effects of that such as mass evictions, starvation, increasing national debt, more mental health crisises, etc. Since their side does not care about those issues I have decided that I do not care if some people die over this. Too bad.

Can't one think the lockdown wasn't long enough, based on the current situation of spiking cases, while not also knowing exactly how long it should have been? I'm not sure anyone knows how long it should have been.

The uncomfortable answer is that a longer lockdown would have prevented cases from spiking today, but only have delay the problem for some weeks or months. Even if we had total lockdown lasting for months, bringing active cases down the a few thousand, numbers would again sharply rise once the lockdown gets partially or fully lifted. Even if cases in the US would disappear at once, one person coming from outside could start a new infection chain that leads to millions of infections in a few months. The problem simply is a lack of sufficient (worldwide) immunity against this virus.

I'm afraid we will have to continue with local lockdowns back and forth for many, many more months unless we want even more cases than we already have. Maybe up 100k a day (we're not too far from that already). Before an effective vaccine is available, we can't return the normalcy without paying a very huge price in human lives. And the saddest part is that we don't know when a vaccine is ready for mass use and how effective it's going to be. It's possible we will never find an effective one and the virus is either here to stay or it will fade away through mutation (what sometimes happens with viruses).

In short: Lockdowns are needed, but they're not the solution. They only buy time. The negative effects are economic problems and social distress.

[jamestroll]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

*plonk*

[Dr. Arch]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Please tell me that you forgot to add the /s at the end.

[jamestroll]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

*plonk*

Yes I know it sounds harsh and I do not mean that in a literal sense.

But the only solution I see anyone propose are 100% full lock downs which only delay the inevitable.

I know what does work are masks, social distancing, and good hygienic practices

Its not realistic to have us locked down for several years. We can keep most of the economy operating with modified business practices.  No large events of course .

[YE]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Talk about lack of empathy. None of those four things are even things explicitly caused by lock downs.

[Sir Mohamed]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Seriously? If so, maybe you think otherwise if you grandparents or parents are on intensive care in the hospital. I hope this will never happen to anyone, but think about that. It's also not true only older people die from Covid19.

[jamestroll]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Talk about lack of empathy. None of those four things are even things explicitly caused by lock downs.

We do not have to shut the economy down to practice social distancing! We have proven effective methods to slow the spread that should be common sense.

Of course I do not want people dying of covid19. I am just frustrated  now that the only solution being thrown out there are full on lockdowns.

Florida should be placed under a stay at home order but they put themselves in this mess

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

*plonk*

I know what does work are masks, social distancing, and good hygienic practices

Ideally, yes.  But not enough people comply with these items.

It's one thing to lay out guidelines.  It's another for the general public to actually listen.   

[Sir Mohamed]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Talk about lack of empathy. None of those four things are even things explicitly caused by lock downs.

We do not have to shut the economy down to practice social distancing! We have proven effective methods to slow the spread that should be common sense.

Of course I do not want people dying of covid19. I am just frustrated  now that the only solution being thrown out there are full on lockdowns.

Florida should be placed under a stay at home order but they put themselves in this mess

You need to realize the economy can't function with a severe public health crisis. What's the use of opening shops, bars and restaurants if nobody goes there because people are either too sick or afraid to get infected?

[jamestroll]

No I do not want anyone to die of covid.

But why does everything down to common sense MASKS have to be political now??

I went into rural Virginia and you could literally tell if someone if a Republican or Democrat just by whether they were wearing a mask or not.

I retract my harsh statement.

[jamestroll]

I will say it loudly and proudly..

Until someone comes up with a coherent plan and address my concerns of long term lock downs:

I do not care if old people die from covid 19!

Talk about lack of empathy. None of those four things are even things explicitly caused by lock downs.

We do not have to shut the economy down to practice social distancing! We have proven effective methods to slow the spread that should be common sense.

Of course I do not want people dying of covid19. I am just frustrated  now that the only solution being thrown out there are full on lockdowns.

Florida should be placed under a stay at home order but they put themselves in this mess

You need to realize the economy can't function with a severe public health crisis. What's the use of opening shops, bars and restaurants if nobody goes there because people are either too sick or afraid to get infected?

I am opposed to stay at home orders. There will be inevitable some economic collapse with businesses providing modified services but we cant mandate people are trapped inside their homes for years and years. And yes it will literally be years until this is resolved.

[GP270watch]

The Health officials are saying long term lockdowns are not good, so that's a false argument and narrative. But people are not following their basic recommendations, they're still going to parties and large gatherings.

 Also sad to see that The President of The United States tweeting baseless conspiracy theories from a gameshow host barely gets a mention. Pretty crazy how far America has fallen in the Trump era.

[emailking]

Can't one think the lockdown wasn't long enough, based on the current situation of spiking cases, while not also knowing exactly how long it should have been? I'm not sure anyone knows how long it should have been.

So basically no plan whatsoever.

You can have a plan of course but no one knows if it's the best way to respond to an unprecedented situation.

[jamestroll]

The Health officials are saying long term lockdowns are not good, so that's a false argument and narrative. But people are not following their basic recommendations, they're still going to parties and large gatherings..

Exactly.  Can we all basically agree I just lost my cool over frustration but I am making valid points

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

If cases keep rising under the lockdown, how do you know when to end or ease the lockdown?
A lockdown isn't working if you have to stay under lockdown indefinitely.

Cases keep rising because it’s impossible to cut human contact. People will ignore the lockdown. People will still go out to get groceries and other necessities. Some don’t wear masks when doing so. People are still coming in (and out) of the state. Saying “cases still went up!” as an argument for why lockdowns don’t work is pretty weak.

Yes, basically full on lockdowns accomplish nothing positive.

A lockdown is a drastic pause button meant to allow time for governments to come up with less damaging, sustainable measures for reducing transmission: contact tracing and isolation, etc. But until the government starts doing it's f***ing job and implementing those more sustainable measures, the choices are essentially either lockdown or uncontrolled exponential spread. Given the choice between the two of those, I think lockdows are the least bad option for the time being, especially in states that are seeing spiking cases.

All of our problems originate from the fact that the government essentially looked at the pandemic like this:

[jamestroll]

We should probably lock down California,  Arizona, Texas and Florida for now and be prepared to lock down much of the north when winter season arrives.

But I argue most businesses should still be able to function on modified levels.

But this round of lockdowns we need to come up with a coherent plan. This will be a problem for several years and we can't expect indefinite lockdowns until that time.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Lockdowns do not necessarily just “delay the inevitable.” If new cases get down below a certain threshold, there is buffer time to prevent the dangerous kind of exponential spread that makes the difference between “under control” and “out of control.” Cases can be isolated and contact traced. It requires politicians and normies to care about the pandemic and keep up their efforts with certain precautions, but I’m a believer that it can be done.

[Koharu]

Snip!

Stay safe, friend. I've been worried about you since you are on the front lines in regards to public contact.

[Bojack Horseman]

https://nbc25news.com/news/state/man-killed-by-police-after-mask-dispute-at-michigan-store?fbclid=IwAR31eD16P_lz4gZyYNxXmwATetAKrs2Ba9SR9nrqdQcGqmhnYpDo9Gmd7gk

Covidiot in Grand Ledge, Michigan walks into a store without a mask and is confronted by the clerk and a customer wearing a mask. He pulls out a knife and begins stabbing the customer before fleeing in his car. An Eaton County sheriff’s deputy pulls the suspect over and he threatens the cop with the knife. The man is then shot and killed by the deputy. At least there’s one less covidiot in the world to spread the virus.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lockdown is a drastic pause button meant to allow time for governments to come up with less damaging, sustainable measures for reducing transmission: contact tracing and isolation, etc. But until the government starts doing it's f***ing job and implementing those more sustainable measures, the choices are essentially either lockdown or uncontrolled exponential spread. Given the choice between the two of those, I think lockdows are the least bad option for the time being, especially in states that are seeing spiking cases.

Why are these the only choices?  This is why so many people increasingly lack trust in public health officials; they aren't actually giving us the real alternatives. 

We could have solved this months with a much, much lower death toll ago if a lockdown of the vulnerable population had been accompanied by a program of controlled voluntary infection of the young and healthy.  But politicians and health officials were either in complete denial or just didn't have the courage to confront the true scope of the problem.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A surprisingly good thread on herd immunity from the governor of Mississippi.  Click to read the whole thing.

https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1282783825219682304

[Koharu]

https://nbc25news.com/news/state/man-killed-by-police-after-mask-dispute-at-michigan-store?fbclid=IwAR31eD16P_lz4gZyYNxXmwATetAKrs2Ba9SR9nrqdQcGqmhnYpDo9Gmd7gk

Covidiot in Grand Ledge, Michigan walks into a store without a mask and is confronted by the clerk and a customer wearing a mask. He pulls out a knife and begins stabbing the customer before fleeing in his car. An Eaton County sheriff’s deputy pulls the suspect over and he threatens the cop with the knife. The man is then shot and killed by the deputy.

This is so depressingly representative of America right now. Ugh.