COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump retweets:
https://twitter.com/chuckwoolery/status/1282499347117215745
https://twitter.com/chuckwoolery/status/1282500772027142144

I'd trust Chuck E. Cheese more than Chuck Woolery myself.

The idea that anyone should respond to a global pandemic based on the advice of an anti-semetic serial-polygamist gameshow host instead of scientists and doctors is getting pretty close to peak "my ignorance is as good as your knowledge".

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1282672141394116610

You can always count on Americans to make literally everything, even something so small and easy as wearing a mask during a global pandemic, a partisan issue.

The broader issue here is science. Many at the GOP base don't have a high opinion of science, because they live in their own world. A world, where Hannity and Limbaugh are your "eductator" rather than experts. For years or decades, these figures have preached how horrible "experts" and scientests are and pained them as out of touch elitsts looking down at middle America. Otherwise, they wouldn't have nominated a presidential candidate who, by all objective accounts, had ZERO credentials for the job he was seeking.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's amazing the American mask compliance is so superior to Europe given that half of one party is completely adamant about not using it. Not that that compliance is helping us very much right now.

I find it bizarre that this is so partisan. Everybody I know regardless of party affiliation is taking this incredibly seriously, and I see pretty darn good compliance. I don't know if that comes from being from the most impacted area or if I simply do not know the 'rural' type of Republican. Likely a combination. When I was down south, the compliance was near zero but that was six weeks ago before major cases were ubiquitous.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's amazing the American mask compliance is so superior to Europe given that half of one party is completely adamant about not using it. Not that that compliance is helping us very much right now.

I find it bizarre that this is so partisan. Everybody I know regardless of party affiliation is taking this incredibly seriously, and I see pretty darn good compliance. I don't know if that comes from being from the most impacted area or if I simply do not know the 'rural' type of Republican. Likely a combination. When I was down south, the compliance was near zero but that was six weeks ago before major cases were ubiquitous.

I was in South Carolina last week and I am gonna estimate that only 20-30% of the people I saw were wearing masks (and a decent chunk weren't wearing their masks over their noses).

I'd surmise that some of it comes from that relaxed Southern lifestyle. 

[W]

I tested negative on the rapid test! Considering I lived with someone positive for COVID for 2 weeks that's a relief. Only around 80ish% confidence however and I'll have to wait a week for the 100% confidence lab test before I'm fully in the clear. Caultious relief for now however.

[It’s so Joever]

Unrelated, but Franklin Veaux is one of my favorite writers on Quora. He’s very logical and knows what he’s talking about.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

COVID-19 deaths in Vietnam = 0.

That is bordering on unbelievable.

Even Australia has 108 deaths, but i guess the majority of our outbreaks were through rampant stupidity.

This just in from North Korea

07:07 - Confirmed active Cases: 1
07:08 - Confirmed active Cases: 0
7:25 - Confirmed active Cases: 1
7:26 - Confirmed active Cases: 0

Looks like they have a cure??

If you consider no one wanting to go there a cure.

[woodley park]

It's amazing the American mask compliance is so superior to Europe given that half of one party is completely adamant about not using it. Not that that compliance is helping us very much right now.

I find it bizarre that this is so partisan. Everybody I know regardless of party affiliation is taking this incredibly seriously, and I see pretty darn good compliance. I don't know if that comes from being from the most impacted area or if I simply do not know the 'rural' type of Republican. Likely a combination. When I was down south, the compliance was near zero but that was six weeks ago before major cases were ubiquitous.

I was in South Carolina last week and I am gonna estimate that only 20-30% of the people I saw were wearing masks (and a decent chunk weren't wearing their masks over their noses).

I'd surmise that some of it comes from that relaxed Southern lifestyle. 

Is not wearing a mask over your nose basically as bad as not wearing one at all? Does leaving the nose uncovered endanger the person with the uncovered nose, the people around them, or both?

[GP270watch]

Snip!

I dunno. I wish my stepdad had lived to see Trump wear a mask--his response would help me better gauge these folks. But without that information, I feel like such immediate turnaround indicates a bot. That said, if they're not bots, it demonstrates how flipping important it is for Trump to wear a mask as an example.

Sorry about your stepdad.

The tweet I posted was a joke because The Republican party is such a joke right now . What used to be The Onion type headline parodies are now real news-stories under Trump. I can't distinguish from bots and real Republicans on Twitter because they're equally posting incoherent and nonsensical gibberish.

[It’s so Joever]

I honestly think it’s entirely possible Trump is weaponizing Covid-19 as a campaign strategy....in the worst way possible. I will write more about it tonight, but if true, it would be extremely terrifying and honestly Hitler-esque/Stalin-esque.

[Meclazine for Israel]

COVID-19 deaths in Vietnam = 0.

That is bordering on unbelievable.

Even Australia has 108 deaths, but i guess the majority of our outbreaks were through rampant stupidity.

This just in from North Korea

07:07 - Confirmed active Cases: 1
07:08 - Confirmed active Cases: 0
7:25 - Confirmed active Cases: 1
7:26 - Confirmed active Cases: 0

Looks like they have a cure??

If you consider no one wanting to go there a cure.

I just find it amazing that the Vietnamese are so organised that they have zero deaths.

Surely, they are not that organised.

Maybe they have a healthy lifestyle where they simply don't sit around getting fat and arguing with people on the internet because they think they are right.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

New York City health officials reported zero deaths related to the novel coronavirus four months after the state's first official death was recorded on March 11.

According to initial data reported by the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, no one died from the virus in New York City on July 11. Officials recorded no confirmed deaths the day before as well, but did have two probable deaths.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-city-without-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-start-of-pandemic/2511864/

This is such a meaningless stat.  There were 36 deaths reported today in New York City, more than in all of Florida.  It's easy to report zero deaths on a Sunday when you just don't report on Sundays.

[GP270watch]

I looked into Vietnam and most outside observers are saying even if the deaths are not zero that it's extremely low. They took immediate actions having public health campaigns about sanitation and hand washing. Vietnam adopted mask wearing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantine periods.

Vietnam enacted measures other countries would take months to move on, bringing in travel restrictions, closely monitoring and eventually closing the border with China and increasing health checks at borders and other vulnerable places.

Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May. A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way.

Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

[͘]

I honestly think it’s entirely possible Trump is weaponizing Covid-19 as a campaign strategy....in the worst way possible. I will write more about it tonight, but if true, it would be extremely terrifying and honestly Hitler-esque/Stalin-esque.

I have a weird conspiracy theory that I believe that Trump is trying to make the pandemic as bad as possible so people will be in fear and not participate in voting.

[Holmes]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

If cases keep rising under the lockdown, how do you know when to end or ease the lockdown?
A lockdown isn't working if you have to stay under lockdown indefinitely.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

The ban on indoor dining and bars especially. Those are unlikely to be safe until there's a vaccine, given that you can't exactly wear a mask while eating and drinking.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

The ban on indoor dining and bars especially. Those are unlikely to be safe until there's a vaccine, given that you can't exactly wear a mask while eating and drinking.

So when the state locked down back in March you expected the lockdown to last for 12-18 months until there was a vaccine? (Or at least for all indoor restaurants to be closed for that long?)

[Roll Roons]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

The ban on indoor dining and bars especially. Those are unlikely to be safe until there's a vaccine, given that you can't exactly wear a mask while eating and drinking.

If the spread is under control, I think indoor dining can be done as long as tables are spaced apart. Here in DC, they've been open for a few weeks now and there hasn't been a spike like there has in Arizona, Florida or Texas.

Though I agree that bars are a no-go.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

California re-instituting bar, restaurant, movie theater, and other closures. Other states seeing spiking cases would be wise to follow suit swiftly.

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1282752861835649024

Ugh.  California locked down hard and early.  And cases kept rising all throughout the lockdown. Why keep repeating a strategy that has already proven to be a failure, without any real endgame in mind?  This is all reminiscent of the Vietnam War, or the Iraq War "surge".

The lockdown worked. We weren’t hit hard like other states such as NY, NJ, WA or LA. Then Newsom eased restrictions and cases recently started to spike because of it. Restrictions should have never been lifted.

The ban on indoor dining and bars especially. Those are unlikely to be safe until there's a vaccine, given that you can't exactly wear a mask while eating and drinking.

So when the state locked down back in March you expected the lockdown to last for 12-18 months until there was a vaccine? (Or at least for all indoor restaurants to be closed for that long?)

It wasn't as obvious then as it is now that indoor dining is a huge part of this problem, so no, I didn't quite expect that back in March. And if we could have gotten a sufficient contact tracing and isolation regime put in place during the first lockdowns, maybe we could have avoided this. That's what countries that have all of this largely under control did! But when you have 60K new cases every day nationally and rising, it isn't realistic that we're going to get a sufficient contact tracing program set up any time soon. Maybe in four months indoor dining could be safe again if we somehow make massive improvements in contact tracing between now and then. As things exist, I'm expecting that we will once again fail to create such a contact tracing program, so yes, I think shutting down restaurants until there is a vaccine is probably going to end up as the least bad way to deal with all of this.

To be clear, we should be providing a massive rescue package to the restaurant industry to prevent an otherwise inevitable wave of bankruptcies, especially because the government failure on contact tracing has created this situation that they are now dealing with.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

After all these months of lockdowns, major business closures, and other restrictions, what sort of support has the government really offered to the people to at least make it bearable?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It seems like every state has basically followed the same pattern of surge, plateau, and decline, regardless of the strategy they used.  The only thing that really changed was the timing.

We already saw the pattern of surge and decline play out roughly sequentially in NY/NJ, New England, the Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic.

Now we are seeing the all the state who were mostly spared in the first few months at various points of the same cycle:  
- It appears that the southwest is now in the plateau period, as cases in CA, AZ, and NV have leveled out over the past 10 days or so.  
- Florida and Texas look like they are cresting, still rising in cases, but more slowly than they were a week ago.  
- And we are in the middle of the surge in the Deep South, with new record cases being hit every few days in SC, GA, AL, and TN.  
- The most remote regions of the Mountain West and Alaska and Hawaii all still have very low cases per capita, but MT, ND, ID, AK, and HI are all listed on rt.live as among the rates with the current highest Rts, so they are probably surges just beginning.

But ascribing credit or blame to a specific policy based on where a state happens to be in this process at any exact moment seems silly to me.  Ron DeSantis was of course a complete buffoon for bragging about how much better his state looked a month or two ago.  But blaming a state now for "reopening too early" is similarly short-sighted.

[GP270watch]

 Comparing different states in different geographic locations, with different demographics, and different population density is silly when we don't really know everything about Covid-19. I think what people are reacting to more than anything is that certain Republican governors have downplayed Covid-19 in callous and tonedeaf ways. This is why other Republican governors have got praise and Democrats in states with some terrible outbreaks also get the benefit of the doubt.