COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

A lot of experts had been recommending a selective lockdown as a transitional solution, in which older people are still under a relatively strict lockdown, but the economy opens up for younger people.

It seems possible to me that this may be what has ended up happening just based on people understanding their own incentives, without any legally enforced age discrimination taking place.  Younger people are going out and getting infected, leading to more cases but fewer deaths, while older people remain much more cautious.   This doesn’t seem like a bad thing to me as it gets up closer to herd immunity while minimizing the cost to human life.

This is unfortunately not at all what is happening because lots of people who would like to not get infected are being forced to go in to their offices to work (even in cases , where they are ending up getting infected. And in some cases die. Old people and other people who wish not to be infected also need to do various other things such as get food, during which time they are vulnerable to potential infection. While well off people can minimize some of this risk by ordering things, especially many poor people who are not wealthy cannot avoid things such as physically going to stores (where in many states/localities people are still not taking basic precautions such as wearing masks). In addition, there are many people (both old and young) who need non-COVID medical care for other afflictions, and if/when hospitals are overwhelmed they cannot get this medical care and are vulnerable to death and suffering other ill-health effects as a result.

So no, Candide, that is not what is happening, everything is not for the best, and we do not live in the best of all possible worlds. Or perhaps we do, this is as good as it gets.

You are definitely correct about this. I've constantly made note of how many customers are wearing masks at my job. I worked this past weekend and on Monday, and across those three days, approximately 45% or so of customers were not wearing masks or facial coverings of any kind. I live in a county (El Paso) and state (Colorado) where masks have not been made mandatory for the general population-although they were mandated for essential employees two months ago. Thus far, Colorado is avoiding the uptick in cases that many other states are seeing, perhaps because we were among the earliest states to be hit by the pandemic. However, if cases do resurge here, then will mandatory masks become a thing?

Governor Polis has repeatedly emphasized the importance of mask-wearing at his press conferences, but he has refrained from imposing a mandate. He believes that Coloradoans can be trusted to make the informed choice (though he did issue an order a few weeks back reiterating the right of businesses to refuse service to unmasked customers). Polis is almost the only Democratic Governor at this point who hasn't issued a blanket mask mandate. I don't expect this to change so long as Colorado continues on its current trajectory.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If you think things are terrible but really think there is nothing we can do better, why do you keep posting in the thread?

I should certainly hope that you are not trying to imply that you post (or anyone else posts) in this thread because you (or they) think that posting in this thread has some sort of impact on anything.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1275979228673191936?s=20

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1275979228673191936?s=20

It's interesting, that a few months ago Abbott effectively overrode Hidalgo's initial mask order by neutralizing the legal penalties that were attached with it. But now, with cases resurging, he has finally conceded and is allowing her and other local authorities to issue renewed orders. Depending on how the situation progresses, he may be forced to concede on this as well.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is a case where IMO Hidalgo should simply issue the stay at home order and begin enforcing it.

If Abbott wants to stop it, let him send the Texas Rangers to arrest her.

If he does, when things get worse (which is unavoidable at this point due to the time lag of infection to hospitalization), Abbott will take the blame.

Or alternatively, maybe Abbott will fold. In which case many lives could still be saved.

So the upside is, if Abbott caves, lives are saved. If Abbott doesn't cave, then Abbott takes the blame when things get bad. Sounds pretty win-win to me.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Abbot should already be taking the blame, because things are already really bad.

I wonder if Cornyn's seat is jeopardized if the Texas GOP continues to make a disaster of this whole situation

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.  They still have by far the lowest covid death rate of any large state.  Their death rate is more than twenty times lower than New York.

Under the stay-at-home order Texas consistently experienced about 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for a month.  They lifted the stay-at-home order, and continued to experience 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for the next six weeks. 

Were they supposed to just continue the stay-home-order indefinitely when they never had a significant number of deaths, and there was no evidence the order was reducing cases or deaths anyway?

[politics_king]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.  They still have by far the lowest covid death rate of any large state.  Their death rate is more than twenty times lower than New York.

Under the stay-at-home order Texas consistently experienced about 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for a month.  They lifted the stay-at-home order, and continued to experience 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for the next six weeks. 

Were they supposed to just continue the stay-home-order indefinitely when they never had a significant number of deaths, and there was no evidence the order was reducing cases or deaths anyway?

Well every state should follow the mask protocol right now. If people need any clues, just look at the 1918 pandemic and how people for over 2 years wore masks everywhere. Now we have better technology obviously but lets be real here, no way you can continue to shutdown the economy. This all falls squarely in Trump's lap, if he didn't fire the pandemic team, if he would've listened in January, made sure testing along with contact tracing was available and if we were properly stocked for the pandemic.

We could be South Korea and not be in this mess where it's a total partisan divide. This is just a total mess. July & August worry me because of the protests how bad it could possibly get. This is about not flooding hospital systems, point blank. It's an indictment on our healthcare system not only in the United States but the whole world. Promoting healthcare work should be a good thing and we should be properly prepared, just having 25% more Hospitals could probably have done a better job with this.

[Roll Roons]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.  They still have by far the lowest covid death rate of any large state.  Their death rate is more than twenty times lower than New York.

Under the stay-at-home order Texas consistently experienced about 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for a month.  They lifted the stay-at-home order, and continued to experience 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for the next six weeks. 

Were they supposed to just continue the stay-home-order indefinitely when they never had a significant number of deaths, and there was no evidence the order was reducing cases or deaths anyway?

The biggest thing would have been a mask order. Same goes for Arizona and Florida.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.  They still have by far the lowest covid death rate of any large state.  Their death rate is more than twenty times lower than New York.

Under the stay-at-home order Texas consistently experienced about 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for a month.  They lifted the stay-at-home order, and continued to experience 1,000 cases and 30 deaths per day for the next six weeks. 

Were they supposed to just continue the stay-home-order indefinitely when they never had a significant number of deaths, and there was no evidence the order was reducing cases or deaths anyway?

The biggest thing would have been a mask order. Same goes for Arizona and Florida.

I agree with that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gee, I wonder why cases are spiking again in Florida.

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1275912010555932672

[Meclazine for Israel]

We could be South Korea and not be in this mess where it's a total partisan divide.

South Koreans behave very differently to Americans, or for that matter, UK, French or Australian citizens.

South Koreans are disciplined, organised, productive, and above all else, collective in their behaviour - perfect attributes when battling a global pandemic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1275943979792687104

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm confused as to what people think Texas should have done differently.

Texas should have done more or less what - to varying degrees and in different ways - Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland, have all managed to do. You could possibly throw in the UK into that list, though it is probably better to leave it off.

Like in much of the USA, Texas was extremely slow in implementing a statewide lockdown, which had exceptions and loopholes large enough to drive a freight train through, and when it did there was no serious effort to actually enforce it and make it effective, or to get widespread/universal public buy-in (effective public health measures to control infectious disease require pretty much the entire population to be on board). And then Texas moved to re-open, without regard to whether or not R_t could be held below 1, before cases were actually declining/under control and before the capacity was in place to control and contain clusters of virus spread. Much of the USA did basically the same.

However, the problem is not just Texas (the government of Texas), though that definitely is a problem. The problem is also Texans. And more generally, the problem is not just America. The problem is also Americans. As long as Texans behave like they do, and as long as Americans behave like they do, we will remain the Failed States of America.

The biggest thing would have been a mask order. Same goes for Arizona and Florida.

That is all very well to say, but a mask order does little good if it is not actually complied with and enforced as necessary. A governmental order doesn't by itself change public behavior. Texans are Texans and Americans are Americans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Lockdown? What lockdown?

Cellphone data shows Americans moving around at near pre-pandemic rates

The coronavirus lockdown is a thing of the past for most Americans, according to a Harvard epidemiologist who said anonymized mobility data from personal cellphones shows that movement across America has returned to near pre-pandemic levels.

Caroline Buckee, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said the data, collected as part of the COVID-19 Mobility Data Network, of which she is among the leaders, shows that Americans began moving more several weeks ago.

“Mobility data suggest people are moving around in nearly normal ways, although that … varies by region,” Buckee said. “And that started several weeks ago. It foreshadows the uptick in cases that we’re seeing in many parts of the country, for sure.”

While the mobility data is informative, particularly in that it gives a real-time view of how people are moving, it isn’t a perfect snapshot of people’s behavior or of the virus’ transmission, Buckee said. While it can tell us how much people are moving around, it can’t tell us whether people are taking other steps, such as wearing masks or washing hands, which could mitigate spread of SARS-CoV-2.

That increased movement has come as state governments have eased stay-at-home and other social-distancing restrictions. Some states, such as those hard-hit in the Northeast, have only slowly relaxed restrictions as cases decline, but other states reopened their economies and eased restrictions even though cases had only plateaued or were still increasing. Buckee said that the rise in cases in the South and Southwest, and in particular Florida, Texas, and Arizona, aren’t from an early second wave, but rather are still part of the virus’ first wave, which moved into those states slowly and now, with eased restrictions, show signs of taking off.

Americans are the problem.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Literal advocacy of violent cleansing. And yet my reference to Hutu Power Radio yesterday gets infracted as "hyperbole". Take note people, this is the end game for the book burning Bolsheviks trying to take over.

[fhtagn]

More proof that there was never a good reason to allow you back.

[Mr. Reactionary]

More proof that there was never a good reason to allow you back.

They took down my Hutu Power reference yesterday (which was critical of mob violence) within an hr (apparently at the unilateral initiative of a mod). Literal advocacy of genocide is still up almost 12 hours later. Priorities.

[emailking]

Gee, I wonder why cases are spiking again in Florida.

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1275912010555932672

I don't think "temperatured" is a word...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Implementing a lockdown -earlier- in Texas would have done nothing.  There wasn’t enough spread of the virus in Texas for an earlier lockdown to make any difference.  There was virtually no difference in Texas cases or deaths between when then started the lockdown, a month later when they ended the lockdown, or a month after that when they had been open for a while. 

Texas wasn’t going to completely eliminated the virus.  And they could do things to postpone the surge.  But they were never going to entirely avoid it.

How can people say that countries like Italy and Spain and Belgium did thingss right compared to Texas when these countries have ten times the death rate of Texas right now? 

It may be that the death rate in Texas climbs dramatically with the recent surge in cases.  But it may not.  There has been very little evidence for a significantly lagged surged in deaths following a surge in cases in other places.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Texas wasn’t going to completely eliminated the virus.  And they could do things to postpone the surge.  But they were never going to entirely avoid it.

That is total nonsense unless and until we see Texas-sized second waves in, among others, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland.

If that is hard to understand, I can list them again.

Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland.

And I am forgetting/leaving out various others such as Slovakia.

All of these other countries successfully controlled the virus as soon as they realized they had a problem.

Implementing a lockdown -earlier- in Texas would have done nothing.  There wasn’t enough spread of the virus in Texas for an earlier lockdown to make any difference.

You are totally a$$-backwards. A lockdown earlier when there were fewer cases would have made more of a difference, not less. It is easier to contain the virus when you have fewer cases, not more, and public health resources can be directed more effectively to plug up the holes with contact tracing, border restrictions, isolating the infected, etc.

The one thing here that is true that even if Texas (and Texas alone) had locked down properly, it would have accomplished comparatively little of all the other states in the USA had not done the same, because then even if Texas had done its part to keep the virus under control, people from other states would have simply traveled to Texas and un-done that work. That is why national leadership is required (and, also international) and you need a national coordinated policy to be effective in a pandemic, not this nonsense ineffective patchwork quilt "federalist" (I guess f stands for failed) system that America is cursed with, where even a single state/locality failing leads to national failure.

This shouldn't be surprising. Former GOP Senator Kit Bond concluded the same thing after taking part in pandmemic-response table top simulations a year or two ago.

There was virtually no difference in Texas cases or deaths between when then started the lockdown, a month later when they ended the lockdown, or a month after that when they had been open for a while. 

Indeed, because Texas never really locked down. In areas and countries where there were actual lockdowns. Heck, even in countries such as South Korea where they *never* actually locked down but where the government is competent and the population does not consist of morons, they have managed to control the virus quite well so far while keeping the economy to a large degree open.

You keep talking as though Texas had a lockdown. The reality is that it, like much of the USA, had a lockdown in name only. Which is far worse than an actual lockdown, because you suffer pretty much the same economic damage as from an actual lockdown, but at least with an actual lockdown it is evident from what happened in other countries that it is actually possible to contain the virus.

The problem with Texas, and with America, is that Texans and Americans are simply far stupider and less capable than other people such as South Koreans are.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Authoritarian measures are not a plan.

If the government is going to tell people they gotta do something, they should tell them they should stay OUTSIDE as much as possible, not inside. Then the government should provide the support for people to do it.

You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

[Del Tachi]

Case growth in the Sun Belt is being driven by summertime temperatures forcing people indoors (air conditioning), where spread is more common.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Texas wasn’t going to completely eliminated the virus.  And they could do things to postpone the surge.  But they were never going to entirely avoid it.

That is total nonsense unless and until we see Texas-sized second waves in, among others, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland.

If that is hard to understand, I can list them again.

Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland.

And I am forgetting/leaving out various others such as Slovakia.

All of these other countries successfully controlled the virus as soon as they realized they had a problem.

Implementing a lockdown -earlier- in Texas would have done nothing.  There wasn’t enough spread of the virus in Texas for an earlier lockdown to make any difference.

You are totally a$$-backwards. A lockdown earlier when there were fewer cases would have made more of a difference, not less. It is easier to contain the virus when you have fewer cases, not more, and public health resources can be directed more effectively to plug up the holes with contact tracing, border restrictions, isolating the infected, etc.

The one thing here that is true that even if Texas (and Texas alone) had locked down properly, it would have accomplished comparatively little of all the other states in the USA had not done the same, because then even if Texas had done its part to keep the virus under control, people from other states would have simply traveled to Texas and un-done that work. That is why national leadership is required (and, also international) and you need a national coordinated policy to be effective in a pandemic, not this nonsense ineffective patchwork quilt "federalist" (I guess f stands for failed) system that America is cursed with, where even a single state/locality failing leads to national failure.

This shouldn't be surprising. Former GOP Senator Kit Bond concluded the same thing after taking part in pandmemic-response table top simulations a year or two ago.

There was virtually no difference in Texas cases or deaths between when then started the lockdown, a month later when they ended the lockdown, or a month after that when they had been open for a while.  

Indeed, because Texas never really locked down. In areas and countries where there were actual lockdowns. Heck, even in countries such as South Korea where they *never* actually locked down but where the government is competent and the population does not consist of morons, they have managed to control the virus quite well so far while keeping the economy to a large degree open.

You keep talking as though Texas had a lockdown. The reality is that it, like much of the USA, had a lockdown in name only. Which is far worse than an actual lockdown, because you suffer pretty much the same economic damage as from an actual lockdown, but at least with an actual lockdown it is evident from what happened in other countries that it is actually possible to contain the virus.

The problem with Texas, and with America, is that Texans and Americans are simply far stupider and less capable than other people such as South Koreans are.

I don’t understand why the fact that we haven’t seen a second wave in places like Italy or Spain (yet?) has anything to do with what’s going on in Texas right now.  I think it is unlikely we will see a second wave in most Western European countries just because such a high percentage of their population has already been infected and is thus now immune.    Again, these countries have ten times the death rate of Texas.  To somehow use them as models of success is absurd.  The same is true of states that have seen steep declines like New York and Massachusetts.  The only reason they’ve fought off the virus as of now is that they suffered so badly in the first place.

Obviously many countries in Asian and the Pacific have been much more successful so far.  But it is unlikely that the tactics they used initially would be successful here now.  Or even would have been successful here three months ago given how much the virus had spread before we even started responding.  And these countries are still under extreme travel restrictions even months after they seemingly eradicated the virus.  

[Storebought]

It would be a simple thing, then, for southern governors and health agencies to suggest residents turn off their A/C and open a few windows to tame the indoor spread of COVID. Oh, and wear face masks in public places where the A/C runs nonstop.