NM-PPP: Biden +12

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mexico: PPP, April 20-21, 1009 voters

Biden 52
Trump 40

But it's probably worse for Trump than that:

Among undecideds for President only 5% approve of the job Trump is doing, while 71% approve of the job Lujan Grisham is doing, suggesting that it may be more likely to get worse for Trump over time than better.

Trump approval: 40/56 overall, 40/55 on virus

Lujan Grisham approval: 59/32 overall, 62/26 on virus

[Bidenworth2020]

I never really thought this would be an especially strong state for Biden. Probably one of the few states where Bernie almost certainly would have performed better as the nominee. Nonetheless, solid numbers and consistent with a 6 point lead nationwide.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think 40% is Trump's ceiling. This is a safe state and if the Trump campaign seriously wants to contest NM, they are pretty delusional.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

New Mexico is def near the top of my list of states that I expect to snap back in the direction of the Democrats, at least when considering states that went to HRC by single digits in 2016 after giving Obama a double digit victory in 2012.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jesus Christ, only 5% of undecideds approve of Trump? How does that even work?

I never really thought this would be an especially strong state for Biden. Probably one of the few states where Bernie almost certainly would have performed better as the nominee. Nonetheless, solid numbers and consistent with a 6 point lead nationwide.

Agreed.

[Skye]

Biden will probably win the state with a margin similar to Obama in '08.

[Pollster]

This poll is modestly good news for Xochitl Torres Small.

[pbrower2a]

So much for culturally-conservative Mexican-Americans going to Trump.

Biden is the devout Christian, and Trump isn't.

[woodley park]

I agree with pbrower. There was a report in Politico some time ago that Trump had planned to contest New Mexico, but that was before COVID opened up vulnerabilities in the much more important battleground states. I expect Trump will only make a play here if he manages to shore up his standing in Florida, Arizona, and the industrial Midwest.

Food for thought -- did Gary Johnson bleed more from Trump or from Clinton in 2016?

[Pollster]

Food for thought -- did Gary Johnson bleed more from Trump or from Clinton in 2016?

[Likely Voter]

NM is reportedly on the Trump team's 'expanded map' saying they have data to back it up. We will see if they spend significant resources there. But the way things are trending, they should probably worry more about keeping AZ than trying to flip NM.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Mexico President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-04-21

Summary: D: 52%, R: 40%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe D. Let's move on.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

NM is reportedly on the Trump team's 'expanded map' saying they have data to back it up. We will see if they spend significant resources there. But the way things are trending, they should probably worry more about keeping AZ than trying to flip NM.

Trump's "team" is a circus of incompetents and charlatans, like anything else he's involved in.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NM is reportedly on the Trump team's 'expanded map' saying they have data to back it up. We will see if they spend significant resources there. But the way things are trending, they should probably worry more about keeping AZ than trying to flip NM.

Trump's "team" is a circus of incompetents and charlatans, like anything else he's involved in.

Just like Trump's ACN MLM scam or Trump Steaks his 2020 campaign will go down in flames.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

NM is reportedly on the Trump team's 'expanded map' saying they have data to back it up. We will see if they spend significant resources there. But the way things are trending, they should probably worry more about keeping AZ than trying to flip NM.

Trump's "team" is a circus of incompetents and charlatans, like anything else he's involved in.

Just like Trump's ACN MLM scam or Trump Steaks his 2020 campaign will go down in flames.

I'm sure the "real polls" have Trump way up in NM and OR, the fake news just won't report them. If he doesn't win those states it's obviously because of millions of undetectable illegal voters, and not because he's despised there.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Food for thought -- did Gary Johnson bleed more from Trump or from Clinton in 2016?

Forgive me for being dense, but what is this chart saying about Johnson voters?

[Adam Griffin]

Food for thought -- did Gary Johnson bleed more from Trump or from Clinton in 2016?

Forgive me for being dense, but what is this chart saying about Johnson voters?

Mainly that third-party voters are edgy and that even if they would have came out to vote for another candidate in the absence of other choices, they love telling pollsters they wouldn't have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NM being plus 12 and it has predicted the PVI winner since 1980 isnt good news to Trump. Even in losing elections of 2000, 2016, it predicted Gore and Hilary the PVI winner

[AGA]

This is why I am skeptical of people who say that the polls will move towards Trump as we near the election. Undecided voters overwhelmingly do not approve of Trump; this has been observed in other polls. Also remember that in 2016, undecided voters broke heavily for Trump.