Does the North still win if Lincoln was defeated in 1864?

[Sir Mohamed]

Does the North still win the US civil war, if Abraham Lincoln was defeated in the 1864 presidential election? I think yes, because Lincoln would have been prez for another 4 months after the election. By March 1865, when his term was actually up, the Confederacy was done anyways. Post war policies might be another story, McClellan might have faced the same backlash than Andrew Johnson.

What do you think?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The South could have possibly won the Civil War, but a Point of Divurgence (PoD) as late as mid-1864 is too late to make it happen. What you'd need to do is remove Lincoln from the picture.
In case Lincoln loses, then what you likely see is a very soft Reconstruction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if the South ceded, it probably would have found it difficult to run without North.  Also, in the 20th century, Wilson, although,  was a Jim Crow was strong nationalist and could of by then united the South with the North. FDR served for Wilson and ran with Cox in 1920

[brucejoel99]

What happens between Election Day & Inauguration Day? That's an additional 4 months of war. If March 4th sees Atlanta fallen & Sherman just starting his march to the sea, I don't see President McClellan calling him back.

[Brother Jonathan]

If McClellan had won in 1864, the north probably still wins but it may have taken longer since McClellan would have probably pursued a less aggressive strategy than Lincoln. That being said, by 1864 the momentum the North had built up was probably to much to overcome and McClellan made a point of breaking with the Democratic platform's commitment to a negotiated settlement. Still, the dynamic between a President McClellan committed to the war but generally opposed to abolition working with a Democratic party divided between pro-war and anti-war members, and a Republican party with likely greater radical influence post-Lincoln would have been interesting, and may have hamstrung the war effort.