CA: Does Kevin de Leon have a future at the state or federal level?

[I’m not Stu]

He was endorsed by the state’s party. He lost Santa Ana to Feinstein despite Lou Correa’s endorsement. He lost CA-34 and CA-40, and CA-46 (Hispanic VRA districts) to Feinstein too. Does he have a future?

[President Johnson]

He may have, but more likely at the local level. Mayor of Los Angeles could be a thing, once Eric Garcetti is termed out or retires. I don't think Gavin Newsom would appoint him to Kamala's seat, should she become vice president. And certainly not if Feinstein passes away. 2024, when this seat is up again, is a long road; if he wants to try again, probably needs something else to remain relevent. Paths to statewide elected offices are closed for a longer time, as Newsom and Kounalakis are in their first terms.

[I’m not Stu]

He may have, but more likely at the local level. Mayor of Los Angeles could be a thing, once Eric Garcetti is termed out or retires. I don't think Gavin Newsom would appoint him to Kamala's seat, should she become vice president. And certainly not if Feinstein passes away. 2024, when this seat is up again, is a long road; if he wants to try again, probably needs something else to remain relevent. Paths to statewide elected offices are closed for a longer time, as Newsom and Kounalakis are in their first terms.

Would Antonio Villaraigosa have won Santa Ana and Hacienda Heights had he faced Gavin Newsom in CA-GOV? De Leon lost the State Senate district he represented (SD-24) to Feinstein.

[JMT]

Apparently de Leon has already made a comeback of sorts: He was elected to the LA City Council last month.

https://www.theeastsiderla.com/news/government_and_politics/kevin-de-le-n-wins-council-district-14-race-jackie-goldberg-keeps-school-board-seat/article_5452ef3e-7240-11ea-88b9-37706e59171b.html

[pikachu]

He's running for mayor in 2022 and should be considered the favorite to win.

[I’m not Stu]

De Leon was elected to the city council with 53% of the vote in an election with only 39% turnout. Why is turnout so bad in Los Angeles? Is a high-ranking State Senator losing their home district an invitation for attack campaigns from opponents?

[pikachu]

De Leon was elected to the city council with 53% of the vote in an election with only 39% turnout. Why is turnout so bad in Los Angeles? Is a high-ranking State Senator losing their home district an invitation for attack campaigns from opponents?

Lol that's actually some of the highest turnout a city council election has gotten in LA in a long, long time, mainly because the elections are being held in odd years. Anyway, he didn't have the support of progressives during the election nor is he as entrenched in municipal politics as other LA politicians. Compared to likely opponent for Mayor (Ridley-Thomas), his performance is still more impressive.

[I’m not Stu]

Is losing his own State Senate district in 2018 an embarrassment for de Leon? Could he win statewide or in the House?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

De Leon was elected to the city council with 53% of the vote in an election with only 39% turnout. Why is turnout so bad in Los Angeles? Is a high-ranking State Senator losing their home district an invitation for attack campaigns from opponents?

Lol that's actually some of the highest turnout a city council election has gotten in LA in a long, long time, mainly because the elections are being held in odd years. Anyway, he didn't have the support of progressives during the election nor is he as entrenched in municipal politics as other LA politicians. Compared to likely opponent for Mayor (Ridley-Thomas), his performance is still more impressive.

I believe this was the first LA Council election (Perhaps ever?) to be held in an even year. For comparison, Jose Huizar (Who preceded de Leon) won reelection in March 2015 with around 9% turnout

[I’m not Stu]

Did losing the LA/OC Hispanic VRA districts cost de Leon a future at the state/federal level?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Did losing the LA/OC Hispanic VRA districts cost de Leon a future at the state/federal level?

Ask again 3 times and I might provide my answer

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't think many people have realized just how drastic the political dynamics of Los Angeles municipal elections has changed since the term realignments. Turnout used to average ~10% in odd year elections and incumbents rarely lost. But now turnout will likely hover between 40-50%.

And the time between the primary and the general used to be about two months. This year it is eight months of campaigning! How much showboating are we going to get in Council meetings this year? Yesterday's meeting alone was plenty.

Ryu, Lee, and MRT are/were all stuck running against candidates who are/were running actual campaigns backed up with real endorsements. Nury, Krekorian, and Marqueece didn't have to deal with that.

The public's perception of City Hall is also not great right now. Being an incumbent (MRT functions like an incumbent) is a hinderance in the eyes of a lot of voters, merited or not. With higher turnout, there may be a stronger "throw out the bums" sentiment that was traditionally mitigated by the odd year elections stifling turnout.

Given all that, KDL avoiding a runoff was a great accomplishment for him. I've never been a huge KDL fan, but he will be a billion times better than Sleazy Huizy.

If KDL is resourceful, from day one he will try to fill the power vacuum left by Wesson's departure from the Council Presidency. It still remains to be seen how Nury will use the position, but as of right now the Council seems ripe for a new takeover. Especially with the flailing of many of the members right now during this crisis -- either because of electoral considerations, or that they're just poor or misguided legislators.

In LA the Council has the power, by design. Wesson has pretty much called the shots during Garcetti's terms. He kept his troops in line via a number of methods, with the ultimate result being 15-0 votes would roll out of Council on a conveyor belt to which the Mayor was completely neutered.

[pikachu]

I don't think many people have realized just how drastic the political dynamics of Los Angeles municipal elections has changed since the term realignments. Turnout used to average ~10% in odd year elections and incumbents rarely lost. But now turnout will likely hover between 40-50%.

And the time between the primary and the general used to be about two months. This year it is eight months of campaigning! How much showboating are we going to get in Council meetings this year? Yesterday's meeting alone was plenty.

Ryu, Lee, and MRT are/were all stuck running against candidates who are/were running actual campaigns backed up with real endorsements. Nury, Krekorian, and Marqueece didn't have to deal with that.

The public's perception of City Hall is also not great right now. Being an incumbent (MRT functions like an incumbent) is a hinderance in the eyes of a lot of voters, merited or not. With higher turnout, there may be a stronger "throw out the bums" sentiment that was traditionally mitigated by the odd year elections stifling turnout.

Given all that, KDL avoiding a runoff was a great accomplishment for him. I've never been a huge KDL fan, but he will be a billion times better than Sleazy Huizy.

If KDL is resourceful, from day one he will try to fill the power vacuum left by Wesson's departure from the Council Presidency. It still remains to be seen how Nury will use the position, but as of right now the Council seems ripe for a new takeover. Especially with the flailing of many of the members right now during this crisis -- either because of electoral considerations, or that they're just poor or misguided legislators.

In LA the Council has the power, by design. Wesson has pretty much called the shots during Garcetti's terms. He kept his troops in line via a number of methods, with the ultimate result being 15-0 votes would roll out of Council on a conveyor belt to which the Mayor was completely neutered.

Maybe I'm being too cynical, but I think KdL wants the prestige of being mayor over having the power that comes with leading the council; maybe I'm wrong, but I never got the impression that he really cared much about city issues during his time in Sacramento. But, yeah, I generally agree that the council has been across very poorly in handling this crisis and there's also still potentially more coming from the Englander investigation, which has a good shot at making the council look even worse... That being said, idk if anyone other than Raman has a shot at knocking off an incumbent. I'm still surprised that Yoo got to the run-off and will be surprised if MRT doesn't wipe the floor with her.

[Pulaski]

Could he run in the 40th in the near future? Roybal-Allard is 79 later this year, and there's at least some overlap with his old State Senate seat right?

[Continential]

Hopefully not, for all of the reasons why John Dule stated in his (AMA?).

[I’m not Stu]

Could he run in the 40th in the near future? Roybal-Allard is 79 later this year, and there's at least some overlap with his old State Senate seat right?

His State Senate district and CA-40 voted for Feinstein for US Senate. Doesn’t that make him look like a weak candidate?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

He lost Los Angeles against a fellow Democrat who's also a 25+ year California institution. Doesn't that make him a weak candidate for Mayor?


(Please don't answer)

[I’m not Stu]

He won’t win any office higher than mayor. He won’t win statewide or replace Lucille Roybal-Allard when she retires. He’s far more popular in the North Coast than in Los Angeles.

[pikachu]

He won’t win any office higher than mayor. He won’t win statewide or replace Lucille Roybal-Allard when she retires. He’s far more popular in the North Coast than in Los Angeles.

I wouldn’t say he’s unpopular in LA, he’s just unknown. If he becomes mayor and has a successful term, he could easily run for governor in 2026 or a Senate seat if one of those open up.

[I’m not Stu]

What if de Leon loses in 2022 to Ridley-Thomas or Feuer?

[Canis]

What if de Leon loses in 2022 to Ridley-Thomas or Feuer?

Then you pass go and collect $100

[I’m not Stu]

What if de Leon loses in 2022 to Ridley-Thomas or Feuer?

Then you pass go and collect $100

Meaning I’m right that he has no statewide or federal future? De Leon failed to get 15% in the 2018 CA-SEN primary. He only finished second in the jungle primary because Republicans didn’t recruit a serious candidate. Atlas once thought he could actually beat Feinstein. De Leon is overrated.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I don't think many people have realized just how drastic the political dynamics of Los Angeles municipal elections has changed since the term realignments. Turnout used to average ~10% in odd year elections and incumbents rarely lost. But now turnout will likely hover between 40-50%.

And the time between the primary and the general used to be about two months. This year it is eight months of campaigning! How much showboating are we going to get in Council meetings this year? Yesterday's meeting alone was plenty.

Ryu, Lee, and MRT are/were all stuck running against candidates who are/were running actual campaigns backed up with real endorsements. Nury, Krekorian, and Marqueece didn't have to deal with that.

The public's perception of City Hall is also not great right now. Being an incumbent (MRT functions like an incumbent) is a hinderance in the eyes of a lot of voters, merited or not. With higher turnout, there may be a stronger "throw out the bums" sentiment that was traditionally mitigated by the odd year elections stifling turnout.

Given all that, KDL avoiding a runoff was a great accomplishment for him. I've never been a huge KDL fan, but he will be a billion times better than Sleazy Huizy.

If KDL is resourceful, from day one he will try to fill the power vacuum left by Wesson's departure from the Council Presidency. It still remains to be seen how Nury will use the position, but as of right now the Council seems ripe for a new takeover. Especially with the flailing of many of the members right now during this crisis -- either because of electoral considerations, or that they're just poor or misguided legislators.

In LA the Council has the power, by design. Wesson has pretty much called the shots during Garcetti's terms. He kept his troops in line via a number of methods, with the ultimate result being 15-0 votes would roll out of Council on a conveyor belt to which the Mayor was completely neutered.

Maybe I'm being too cynical, but I think KdL wants the prestige of being mayor over having the power that comes with leading the council; maybe I'm wrong, but I never got the impression that he really cared much about city issues during his time in Sacramento. But, yeah, I generally agree that the council has been across very poorly in handling this crisis and there's also still potentially more coming from the Englander investigation, which has a good shot at making the council look even worse... That being said, idk if anyone other than Raman has a shot at knocking off an incumbent. I'm still surprised that Yoo got to the run-off and will be surprised if MRT doesn't wipe the floor with her.

I totally agree with you. I primarily laid that out because if I were him and wanted to accrue power, that's what I do.

I also agree that Ryu and MRT will win. But they cannot run the snoozing zombie campaigns reminiscent of the past.

[I’m not Stu]

Nobody else won a statewide jungle primary with less than 15% in state history.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Runs for Gov in 2026 after Newsom, SF is losing population to LA, and big city Govs have come from SF or LA, anyways.