Ipsos: Biden +8
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  Ipsos: Biden +8
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Author Topic: Ipsos: Biden +8  (Read 1083 times)
Comrade Funk
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« on: April 21, 2020, 05:57:20 PM »

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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2020, 06:03:43 PM »

You love to see it! Beautiful poll!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2020, 06:23:08 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2020, 06:37:38 PM by MT Treasurer »

So many Biden +8 (or +7/+9) polls, which "coincidentally" is exactly the margin by which Democrats won the House popular vote in 2018. For all the "But 2018 was a D+8 year!1!" talk, it sure doesn’t look like the national environment has improved for Republicans since that election.

Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).

This is a far more static election than people think.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2020, 06:32:18 PM »

Beautiful, thank you America!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2020, 06:34:17 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2020, 06:53:02 PM »

Trump is done
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2020, 07:00:10 PM »


Let's wait to thank this country if Biden actually wins.
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AGA
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2020, 07:14:42 PM »

How are so many people still undecided? My first thought that Sanders supporters haven't completely come around yet, but Trump's support will definitely go over 39%. I guess that a lot of people still aren't happy with either candidate.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2020, 07:42:42 PM »




I love that number of 39% for trump.
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2020, 07:54:44 PM »

How are so many people still undecided? My first thought that Sanders supporters haven't completely come around yet, but Trump's support will definitely go over 39%. I guess that a lot of people still aren't happy with either candidate.

I have no evidence to prove this, but I'd wager there are a lot of wealthy, finance-focused folks who are waiting to see if a) Trump can recover the economy and b) Biden sticks with an economic message friendly to them.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2020, 08:39:56 PM »

Biden is up 3 to 4 not plus 8
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2020, 08:40:05 AM »

So many Biden +8 (or +7/+9) polls, which "coincidentally" is exactly the margin by which Democrats won the House popular vote in 2018. For all the "But 2018 was a D+8 year!1!" talk, it sure doesn’t look like the national environment has improved for Republicans since that election.

Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).

This is a far more static election than people think.

People love to overanalyze every outlying poll and every little mini ebb or flow of Trump’s approval rating, but the truth is that the overall political fundamentals of the country basically haven’t changed meaningfully at all since the midterms (I suspect that may no longer be the case once we’re several months into a recession/depression, but that’s a different story).
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2020, 08:43:55 AM »

So many Biden +8 (or +7/+9) polls, which "coincidentally" is exactly the margin by which Democrats won the House popular vote in 2018. For all the "But 2018 was a D+8 year!1!" talk, it sure doesn’t look like the national environment has improved for Republicans since that election.

Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).

This is a far more static election than people think.

I don't think it's that static. Many polls were a statistical tie until the last couple weeks or so, which were as good as anyone could ask for Biden- the bad coronavirus response by Trump finally registered with voters, Biden officially won the primary as Sanders dropped out, he got endorsed by the trio of Warren-Sanders-Obama, and he didn't have any gaffes. This will not be the same until November, and there's more than half a year. Who knows what happens by then?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2020, 10:17:41 AM »

Wrong
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Orser67
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2020, 10:24:02 PM »

Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).

It's weird how rarely the GCB seems to come up in discussions of the 2020 election, both on and off Atlas. I understand that it's not necessarily going to be a perfect predictor of specific races, but if one party is consistently down by 5+ points in the GCB (as Republicans have been all cycle)...well, that's not a good sign for them.
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JA
Jacobin American
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2020, 01:53:28 AM »

So many Biden +8 (or +7/+9) polls, which "coincidentally" is exactly the margin by which Democrats won the House popular vote in 2018. For all the "But 2018 was a D+8 year!1!" talk, it sure doesn’t look like the national environment has improved for Republicans since that election.

Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).

This is a far more static election than people think.

That's the conclusion to which I am coming as well. If you want to see what 2020 will look like? Just look at 2018 and its trends.
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