States where no Republican or Democrat can win governorship again?

[Suburbia]

Map it.

[Roll Roons]

Again is a lot. But for the time being:

Republicans: CA, HI, NY, VA, WA

Democrats: AL, AR, ID, MS (if Hood couldn't do it...), NE, ND, OK, SD (see MS), TN, WY

Under the right circumstances, I could see every other state electing a governor of the other party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the map

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats could win South Dakota, Alaska, and South Carolina. Republicans can’t win Illinois, Maryland, or New Jersey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Democrats could win South Dakota, Alaska, and South Carolina. Republicans can’t win Illinois, Maryland, or New Jersey.

LOL.

[Astatine]

Again is a lot. But for the time being:

Republicans: CA, HI, NY, VA, WA

Democrats: AL, AR, ID, MS (if Hood couldn't do it...), NE, ND, OK, SD (see MS), TN, WY

Under the right circumstances, I could see every other state electing a governor of the other party.

Kristi Noem's approval ratings are still not the best. In a Trump midterm she could indeed be somewhat vulnerable if her polling numbers stay as mediocre as they are now or plummet even more and Billie Sutton runs again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For the record I don't think any state's governorship is truly unwinnable for the other party under the right conditions (the "right conditions" of course being very difficult to obtain in many.)

[Vosem]

I don't think a Republican could get elected Mayor of DC, or Governor of the United States Virgin Islands. Both of these jurisdictions are majority-African-American, or very close to it. Otherwise, any jurisdiction can elect a governor of either party, I think.

Note that USVI actually did elect a Republican Governor in 1994, which is kind of amazing.

EDIT: A de facto Republican (though running as an independent) was elected USVI Governor in 2014, and then defeated for reelection in 2018. So, yeah, anywhere but DC.

[Orser67]

I started a similar discussion back in November, and settled on this map of "pretty much unwinnable" states:

[morgieb]

Again is a big word, I expect that streaks will finish eventually. And I think every state would elect an opposing party governor if we get a Roy Moore-style situation.

But here's a list of states where the opposing party has no realistic shot with the current climate under normal circumstances:

Dems: Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Utah, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama
Reps: California, New York, Hawaii, Delaware, Washington (latter two largely down to them having Governor elections in Presidential years, otherwise they wouldn't make the list)

[morgieb]

Again is a lot. But for the time being:

Republicans: CA, HI, NY, VA, WA

Democrats: AL, AR, ID, MS (if Hood couldn't do it...), NE, ND, OK, SD (see MS), TN, WY

Under the right circumstances, I could see every other state electing a governor of the other party.

I know the Rep bench is more conservative in Virginia than Maryland, but if the Republicans could win there there is literally zero reason why they wouldn't win in Virginia.

[Politician]

Barring a Roy Moore scenario. 30% means the state is unlikely to elect a governor of the opposing team:

[Nutmeg]

I don't think a Republican could get elected Mayor of DC, or Governor of the United States Virgin Islands. Both of these jurisdictions are majority-African-American, or very close to it. Otherwise, any jurisdiction can elect a governor of either party, I think.

Note that USVI actually did elect a Republican Governor in 1994, which is kind of amazing.

EDIT: A de facto Republican (though running as an independent) was elected USVI Governor in 2014, and then defeated for reelection in 2018. So, yeah, anywhere but DC.

Roy Lester Schneider was elected on the Independent Citizens Movement ballot line in 1994, though, so I'm not sure the voters of USVI really can be considered to have ever intentionally voted Republican for governor.

But I agree: certainly not DC. Republicans usually just run as independents, and even then they are personae non gratae when they are unmasked as such.

[Suburbia]

I think Democrats can still win IA-in a Republican midterm.

[Chips]

I started a similar discussion back in November, and settled on this map of "pretty much unwinnable" states:

Yeah this looks right.

[Calthrina950]

I started a similar discussion back in November, and settled on this map of "pretty much unwinnable" states:

Yeah this looks right.

Not quite. I'd add South Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, and Indiana to the column of unwinnable states for Democrats, and Washington to the column of unwinnable states for Republicans. Virginia and Colorado could very well be joining that column in this decade also.

[Real Texan Politics]

This is the map

Not Georgia, especially in 2022. Kemp is deeply unpopular with both parties and it'll be lean D if it's a Kemp vs Abrams rematch. Collins vs Abrams could be tighter but I think Abrams may be able to pull it off slightly.