Which of these Republicans is the most likely to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these Republicans is the most likely to win?

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

It's a tossup between Lake and Michels for me. Given the D skewed polling history in Wisconsin and just how close AZ was in a D+4.5 2020 environment, I think either one has a much better chance of winning than is reflected in polling. I don't quite believe the Oregon polls just based on the history of the state, I don't want to predict KS because they have pretty quirky dynamics in statewide races and Dems have had a recent history of slightly outperforming the polls in Nevada.

[Senator Incitatus]

With the way things are going, I think Lake may actually win solidly—that's seriously going to throw a wrench into some of the "rejection of Trump" narratives DC is cooking up. I can't believe I'm considering her as the answer here, but it's her or Lombardo.

(Give us more Kansas polling!)

[Lambsbread]

It should be Schmidt, but I voted Lake. Weird to think that it's more plausible to think of AZ voting for an R Gov while KS votes for a D.

[Calthrina950]

Tie between Lake and Lombardo, although I believe Drazan will win also, and Schmidt and Michels both have a 50/50 shot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lombardo>Drazan>Lake>Michels>Schmidt (oddly enough).

Gun to my head, as of right now I think the GOP wins all of them but Kansas...yet again, oddly enough.

[seskoog]

My hot take is Drazan. Since OR will likely have a D legislature, abortion isn't as at risk there as in the other 4 (especially AZ, KS, WI), while things like crime/defund the police, may be on more minds, combined with the Betsey Johnson effect.