Which state result shocked you the most?

[EJ24]

I have to say Indiana in 2008.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Michigan 2016 by far as I really only started following politics in 2012 and the election wasnt really surprising. The most surprising states in 2012 though were FL and VA not OH which Obama had led in polling throughout even when he trailed nationally  but neither were anywhere near as shocking as 2016 Michigan

[Frenchrepublican]

Was not Following US politics back then but Indiana 2008 remains one of the most crazy electoral outcome of the past few decades.

[morgankingsley]

Tennessee 2000 when I was researching historical elections

[Gracile]

Indiana was a real stunner. When it was too close to call on election night 2008, you could tell it was going to be a big Obama win.

[TDAS04]

Indiana

[Storr]

Of the "Midwest Firewall" states, which were all shocking to me at the time, Michigan was the most shocking, especially after how well Gary Peters did two years earlier in a midterm year not favorable to Democrats overall.

But Indiana 2008 was much more shocking. Indiana has always been the odd state out of the Rust Belt states. All of the other states mentioned were part of some trend (Tenn 2000: decline of mid-south states supporting national Democrats, NC 2008: transition into a battleground state from a safe R state, MI/PA/WI 2016: breaking of the solid midwest firewall, Florida any year: continuance of being competitive state, etc.) Was Indiana 2008 a part of any trend? No, it just randomly voted blue while voting red before and after, both by solid margins.

[MIKESOWELL]

Indiana in 2008. I expected McCain to still win the state by at least 7-8 points.

[Podgy the Bear]

Pennsylvania 2016.  I thought that as the only growing area in the state, metro Philadelphia would deliver a significant margin to Hillary.  And it did, but I didn't see the huge margins in the rural part of the state that gave the state to Trump.

[Podgy the Bear]

Looking at it through 2020 eyes, Indiana 2008 would be a shocker, especially with the fact that it's a very conservative state and moved back to its very Republican levels.  But it was a state that Obama targeted heavily and outspent McCain significantly.  And the terrible economic downturn, especially in northern Indiana, made it a perfect storm. 

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

Indiana 2008 was a ridiculous win to pull out for Obama. Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 were both surprising after Obama got crushing victories out of both states in 2012 and 2008.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually was not that shocked by Indiana in '08. By Election Day, forecasters were calling it a toss-up. Obama (from neighboring Chicago) had been targeting the state heavily and it, like the rest of its region, was hit hard by the recession. Yeah it hadn't voted D for president in over 40 years, but it seemed ripe for flipping at the time. Marion County (Indianapolis) had already flipped D in 2004 after 40 years straight of voting GOP, and 2004 was a much less Democratic-friendly year than 2008, so there was some reason to believe trends like that would continue and that Indiana would start to resemble its neighbors more closely as a result anyway. Obviously it hasn't stayed that way, but at the time the result was not that shocking to me. I was more surprised that it flipped but Missouri didn't. I thought if Obama's winning Indiana, he's definitely winning Missouri. Of course both states were very close and have followed a similar trajectory since; the difference was that Missouri had been seen as a competitive state for much longer than Indiana, which turned out to be competitive only in that one election.

[El Betico]

The moment when Fox News did call Wisconsin for Trump -and they did it very early, around midnight I think, over two hours before AP and other networks- was my biggest "Holy s***t" moment since I have been following US Elections( 2004 was the first with somewhat full understanding of the principal dynamics). I didn't expect Trump to win PA and MI neither( nor Florida to be honest, with all that talk about the Latino surge in early voting), but I thought Wisconsin was for him the most out-of-reach of those Big Three, he did really bad there in the primary and there wasn't a single moment during the GE campaign in which the State did really seem in play, it's true that Hillary painfully neglected it, but Trump didn't invest so much there too...and that call, albeit lonely in the media group for more than two hours, was my "Crap, He is really winning this" moment.

Before that, I didn't believe Obama would have really won Indiana, North Carolina and NE-2 in 2008, I was younger and way less aware of some things, so for me the swings that occurred there since 2004 were a big WTH??!!...then came that Wisconsin call that for over two hours I did hope Fox should have had to retract like Florida in 2000, but it was right...kudos to their Decision Desk.

[Canis]

I wasn't following politics too closley in 2004 and 2008 and I didn't really know that much about how each state leaned in 2012 so nothing suprised me but for 2016 I was actively engaged and expected Clinton to win in a landslide so when they called Michigan for Trump I was shocked

[Mr. Smith]

Indiana '08 easily.

But Missouri not flipping to Obama was the biggest shocker that year.

[El Betico]

To complete the point in my previous post, if a mainstream Republican had won Wisconsin in 2016 would not have been so shocking...I think this State clearly would have been on his/her path to victory( alongside Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, with Michigan and Pennsylvania less likely to flip in this case), and he/she would have relied on the Ryan/Walker machine, who was hostile to Trump and really effective against him in the primary...hell, Wisconsin was the biggest win for NeverTrump GOPers, probably the only significant one( not a caucus, without the home effect Cruz had in Texas and probably Oklahoma and Kasich in Ohio, ecc...). No, I really didn't even remotely imagine that outcome...winning Wisconsin as a Republican without Ryan/Walker really on your team side? Even Trump didn't strongly believe he could, he barely targeted the State if I am recalling well, and way less than Michigan or Pennsylvania. Please do correct me if in my analysis I am missing something that at the time misguided my judgement.

[SevenEleven]

To complete the point in my previous post, if a mainstream Republican had won Wisconsin in 2016 would not have been so shocking...I think this State clearly would have been on his/her path to victory( alongside Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, with Michigan and Pennsylvania less likely to flip in this case), and he/she would have relied on the Ryan/Walker machine, who was hostile to Trump and really effective against him in the primary...hell, Wisconsin was the biggest win for NeverTrump GOPers, probably the only significant one( not a caucus, without the home effect Cruz had in Texas and probably Oklahoma and Kasich in Ohio, ecc...). No, I really didn't even remotely imagine that outcome...winning Wisconsin as a Republican without Ryan/Walker really on your team side? Even Trump didn't strongly believe he could, he barely targeted the State if I am recalling well, and way less than Michigan or Pennsylvania. Please do correct me if in my analysis I am missing something that at the time misguided my judgement.

Because Ryan and Walker are mere tools of those propping them up. Just like Trump.

[catographer]

In 2012, I was shocked most by:
- Heitkamp in North Dakota, McCaskill in Missouri, and Donnelly in Indiana.

In 2014,
- Graham in FL-02 and Ashford in NE-02.
- How big Cotton and Cassidy’s wins were.

In 2016,
- Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Feingold losing Wisconsin, and McGinty losing Pennsylvania.

In 2018,
- Horn in OK-05, Cunningham in SC-01, and Cox in CA-21.
- Nelson and Gillum losing Florida, Cordray Ohio and Kelly winning Kansas.
- Brown outperforming Stabenow.

[Mr. Illini]

Voted for Indiana 2008.

When it comes to 2016, I'd actually put Pennsylvania over Michigan. Trump's polling margins in Ohio increased significantly heading into Election Day, so I feel like there was always something in the back of my mind that Michigan could be impacted, as I feel like Ohio and Michigan are somewhat of sibling states. I've always perceived PA as more closely aligned with the northeast and so underestimated the shift that was going on there as well.

Of course, in terms of just the sheer shock and emotion of the moment, it would have been Wisconsin, as that is when we found out that Donald Trump would be President. I don't really think that is the correct way to answer the question, though.

[Orwell]

In 2012, I was shocked most by:
- Heitkamp in North Dakota, McCaskill in Missouri, and Donnelly in Indiana.

In 2014,
- Graham in FL-02 and Ashford in NE-02.
- How big Cotton and Cassidy’s wins were.

In 2016,
- Trump winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Feingold losing Wisconsin, and McGinty losing Pennsylvania.

In 2018,
- Horn in OK-05, Cunningham in SC-01, and Cox in CA-21.
- Nelson and Gillum losing Florida, Cordray Ohio and Kelly winning Kansas.
- Brown outperforming Stabenow.

Were McCaskill and Donnelly's wins surprises? Both won by a large margin and led by a lot in polls before hand.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've only followed politics recently, so to me Pennsylvania 2016 was definitely the most shocking. I had always thought of Pennsylvania as only slightly less solidly Dem than most of its neighbors (NY NJ DE MD), so seeing it flip was extremely unexpected.

In terms of historical elections I've looked at, Indiana 2008. I knew Obama's 2008 win was big, but I didn't realize how big it really was until I saw the map.

Kelly winning Kansas.

Not sure why so many found this so surprising. With how much people hate Kobach, I never doubted she would win.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I remember Obama winning Florida in 2012 being a surprise, certainly moreso than Ohio. Not a huge one obviously, but a, yeah, he's really swept the swing states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MI 2016. In 2008, Ds were polling decently in IN, and it seemed like a pperfect storm had come together that allowed the state to flip. In 2016, I thought PA was lean D, and WI as well. MI I rated as likely only because I thought Ds had a higher floor in the state than Trump, whereas I thought it possible he could win PA and WI through the rural areas of the state, and PA was expected to be semi-competative