Folks, lets keep things in perspective

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm old enough to remember when impeachment would doom house democrats haha. Concerning the 2020 federal house general elections, Kevin McCarthy and Tom Emmer can go suck on a chode together.

[Frenchrepublican]

No, they will net a few seats but the majority is not reachable.

[Lechasseur]

No, they will net a few seats but the majority is not reachable.

This

[andjey]

Republicans aren't going to win House in 2020. They can gain few seats (5-10), but that's all. Maybe 2022 if Biden is President.

[Lognog]

One of the few things Atlas agrees on

[lfromnj]

Nah I basically moved it to almost Safe D since the NC redistricting,

[here2view]

House is Safe D as long as Trump is President.

[MT Treasurer]

There’s no way the can flip the House in this kind of environment with so many recruitment failures, an incompetent NRCC, redistricting, Trump losing ground in major suburban areas, the Democrats' cash advantage, etc. etc.

They should consider themselves really lucky if they can hold the Senate.

[windjammer]

There’s no way the can flip the House in this kind of environment with so many recruitment failures, an incompetent NRCC, redistricting, Trump losing ground in major suburban areas, the Democrats' cash advantage, etc. etc.

They should consider themselves really lucky if they can hold the Senate.

This seriously. Citizens United overturning all campaign regulations made things so worse for republicans. They didn't even get a huge financial advantage and they're being blackmailed by their megadonors who are disconnected with reality.

[Woody]

There’s no way the can flip the House in this kind of environment with so many recruitment failures, an incompetent NRCC, redistricting, Trump losing ground in major suburban areas, the Democrats' cash advantage, etc. etc.

They should consider themselves really lucky if they can hold the Senate.

2020
Here's the map for a comfortable majority:


And here are other pick-up opportunities/insurance seats: AZ-01, CA-45, FL-13, FL-27, IA-02, IL-06, IL-17, MI-11, MN-02, NJ-7, NJ-11, NV-3, NV-4, NY-18, TX-07, TX-32, PA-07, PA-10, and VA-10

[ProgressiveModerate]

There’s no way the can flip the House in this kind of environment with so many recruitment failures, an incompetent NRCC, redistricting, Trump losing ground in major suburban areas, the Democrats' cash advantage, etc. etc.

They should consider themselves really lucky if they can hold the Senate.

2020
Here's the map for a comfortable majority:


And here are other pick-up opportunities/insurance seats: AZ-01, CA-45, FL-13, FL-27, IA-02, IL-06, IL-17, MI-11, MN-02, NJ-7, NJ-11, NV-3, NV-4, NY-18, TX-07, TX-32, PA-07, PA-10, and VA-10

For that to happen, everything would have to fall the GOP's way. Many of those "Insurance Seats" arent flipping for example, in VA-10, Wexton won by 12 points in a district that is trending heavily D overall. Her district voted 3 points to the left of the country in 2018. I mean it's possible, but Trump would have to come close is the popular vote, which seems very unlikely at this point. Sure, Rs have more targets but no matter what, Ds will gain the 2 new NC districts, and they have targets of their own like Bacon, GA-7, which is trending heavily D, alongside TX-23, IL-13, PA-1, and many others. In Rs flip the house Trump is winning confortably, and Dems have the incumebncy advantages this time around, plus many of these R gerrymaders are no longer holding up because people didn't realize the suburbs would have such a hard D trend in the second half of this decade.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol

[Lognog]

Hot take: dems could gain seats this election. like in 2006 and 2008

[Pericles]

Hot take: dems could gain seats this election. like in 2006 and 2008

I'd say there's about a 1/3 chance of that, and another 1/3 chance of very little change in seat terms.

[Lognog]

Hot take: dems could gain seats this election. like in 2006 and 2008

I'd say there's about a 1/3 chance of that, and another 1/3 chance of very little change in seat terms.

when I mean pick up seats I should say probably around 5, I think there is over 50% chance neither side picks up more than 10

[The Mamdani Virus]

Yeah, the House is basically Safe D at this point. The presidency is Lean D and the Senate is a tossup. A Dem trifecta looks likelier than GOP House control, also lol at the two delusional people who voted yes.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Speaker Ryan is gone whom ushered the tax cuts of 2017, which was just as unpopular as Obamacare Repeal, and Kevin McCarthy had a flurry of Rs retire, in the last two sessions of Congress and it Dems can add some seats that they lose MT and King's seat in NY and maybe IA 4.

And it looks like Rs may only gain about a half dozen seats from Redistricting,  due to losing seats in NY, IL and CA, which isnt gonna help them all that much in 2022 either. Not like 2010, where Redistricting helped them to capture 50 seats, due to R gerrymandering  with more Govs

[Non Swing Voter]

at this point I think it's going to be a complete wash.  I bet there will be further realignment flips but they will cancel out.  plus this time democrats have incumbency and money advantages in the majority of contested races. 

[wesmoorenerd]

Surprisingly enough, I'd say the Dems have more low hanging fruit in the House (NC-02, NC-06, TX-23, CA-25, GA-07, arguably TX-24) than the Republicans do (OK-05, maybe SC-01, MN-07, and NY-22, maybe ME-02 or NM-02). Even in a wash I think a Dem net gain is pretty likely.

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take: dems could gain seats this election. like in 2006 and 2008

I'd say there's about a 1/3 chance of that, and another 1/3 chance of very little change in seat terms.

when I mean pick up seats I should say probably around 5, I think there is over 50% chance neither side picks up more than 10

Yeah at this point in time I think it's something like 50% chance of +5 in either direction, 30% chance of dems gaining +5 to +10, 15% chance of Republicans gaining +5 to +10, and 5% chance of either side getting more than ten. In the big picture definitely appears to be a wash.