So many Biden +8 (or +7/+9) polls, which "coincidentally" is exactly the margin by which Democrats won the House popular vote in 2018. For all the "But 2018 was a D+8 year!1!" talk, it sure doesn’t look like the national environment has improved for Republicans since that election.
Also, the 538 aggregate has Democrats winning the House popular vote by... exactly 8 points (48.4%-40.4%).
This is a far more static election than people think.
People love to overanalyze every outlying poll and every little mini ebb or flow of Trump’s approval rating, but the truth is that the overall political fundamentals of the country basically haven’t changed meaningfully at all since the midterms (I suspect that may no longer be the case once we’re several months into a recession/depression, but that’s a different story).
