Describe an Obama-Clinton-Trump voter...

[super6646]

This should be fun. I honestly don't know.

[here2view]

Honestly, my best friend if Bernie won the nomination.

[Lechasseur]

Honestly, my best friend if Bernie won the nomination.

Yeah I don't see there being too many of those voters with Biden as the nominee.

Had Bernie been the nominee though, they would be a lot more common.

[Kyng]

Yeah, with Biden as the nominee, there probably won't be *that* many, but here are some ideas:

1) People who moved rightwards between 2016 and 2020, for some external reason (e.g. a religious coversion). There will be some of these, but this answer feels like a cop-out, since these people don't form any kind of voter bloc in and of themselves (they simply moved from one existing bloc to another).

2) A small minority of 'Bernie Bros' will probably end up voting for Trump - either out of spite, or with an eye on future elections (hoping to avoid a 'red wave' in the 2022 midterms, and nominate a progressive in 2024). Granted, not all of these will be Obama-Clinton-Trump voters (many will have sat out 2016 or voted for a third party), but I suspect some will have reluctantly voted for Hillary, and then doubled down on 'opposing centrists' after she lost.

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared. Granted, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if Bernie had been the nominee), but there might be a decent number of these if Biden moves left to shore up his support among progressives. (Also, most people fitting this description would have voted for Romney in 2012... but, maybe some of them were annoyed by his "47%" comment or something?)

4) White working-class people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016, but then found that they liked Trump's positions on trade, and/or his record on jobs and the economy (and now don't blame him for a likely coronavirus-induced recession). Again, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if, say, Kamala had been the nominee) - but, unlike categories #2 and #3, this would have been a reliably "Obama-Clinton" category. (Also, even if these people don't end up being "Obama-Clinton-Trump" voters, I think this will be the place to look for "Obama-Clinton-Biden-2024 R" voters, even if the 2024 GOP nominee is "Generic R")

Do note that three of my four categories are made up of *reluctant* Hillary voters (of which there were plenty in 2016). It's hard for me to imagine any *enthusiastic* Hillary voters switching to Trump, unless they completely changed their politics in the mean time (thus putting them into category #1).

[here2view]

Honestly, my best friend if Bernie won the nomination.

Yeah I don't see there being too many of those voters with Biden as the nominee.

Had Bernie been the nominee though, they would be a lot more common.

Yep, I agree. He's voting for Biden this November. He actually voted straight Republican in 2018 after voting for Clinton in 2016. Very odd voter.

[VPH]

I have a few friends who did this (although they were too young to vote for Obama). Three of them just moved rightward in university. One came from a really conservative family in Staten Island in the first place though.

[lfromnj]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-political-hot-potato-for-some-pa-democrats-party-officials-who-praise-trump/2020/04/17/1e855f70-7dbe-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

Demosaurs in this article who finally left the party

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX5wP52GMu0

Maybe the last dude in this video?

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, with Biden as the nominee, there probably won't be *that* many, but here are some ideas:

1) People who moved rightwards between 2016 and 2020, for some external reason (e.g. a religious coversion). There will be some of these, but this answer feels like a cop-out, since these people don't form any kind of voter bloc in and of themselves (they simply moved from one existing bloc to another).

2) A small minority of 'Bernie Bros' will probably end up voting for Trump - either out of spite, or with an eye on future elections (hoping to avoid a 'red wave' in the 2022 midterms, and nominate a progressive in 2024). Granted, not all of these will be Obama-Clinton-Trump voters (many will have sat out 2016 or voted for a third party), but I suspect some will have reluctantly voted for Hillary, and then doubled down on 'opposing centrists' after she lost.

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared. Granted, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if Bernie had been the nominee), but there might be a decent number of these if Biden moves left to shore up his support among progressives. (Also, most people fitting this description would have voted for Romney in 2012... but, maybe some of them were annoyed by his "47%" comment or something?)

4) White working-class people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016, but then found that they liked Trump's positions on trade, and/or his record on jobs and the economy (and now don't blame him for a likely coronavirus-induced recession). Again, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if, say, Kamala had been the nominee) - but, unlike categories #2 and #3, this would have been a reliably "Obama-Clinton" category. (Also, even if these people don't end up being "Obama-Clinton-Trump" voters, I think this will be the place to look for "Obama-Clinton-Biden-2024 R" voters, even if the 2024 GOP nominee is "Generic R")

Do note that three of my four categories are made up of *reluctant* Hillary voters (of which there were plenty in 2016). It's hard for me to imagine any *enthusiastic* Hillary voters switching to Trump, unless they completely changed their politics in the mean time (thus putting them into category #1).

Yeah, most Obama/Clinton/Trump voters would be in this category, they're basically moderate legacy democrats who have finally decided to abandon the ship.

[Frenchrepublican]

Another kind of Obama/Clinton/Trump voter could be find in the Rio Grande Valley where you have a good amount of conservative hispanics who could be convinced to vote for Trump.

[Intell]

Cubans/Venezuelans.

Some old conservative hispanic communities.

[morgankingsley]

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared

I can actually see a decent share of this happening, maybe a quarter million votes, which is more than most entire third parties will get

[Frenchrepublican]

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared

The thing is that these voters would have very probably voted for Romney

I can actually see a decent share of this happening, maybe a quarter million votes, which is more than most entire third parties will get

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-political-hot-potato-for-some-pa-democrats-party-officials-who-praise-trump/2020/04/17/1e855f70-7dbe-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

Demosaurs in this article who finally left the party

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AX5wP52GMu0

Maybe the last dude in this video?

If Trump didn't persuade the last dude to vote for him I highly doubt he'd be swayed this time.

[Alben Barkley]

A unicorn.

Seriously, almost all will fall into Kyng's Category 1 above. There will be very few of those voters and they will be at least matched by people who converted their politics in the opposite direction. Won't have any electoral impact.

I can see some in Categories 2-4, but overall I actually think most people in those demographic categories are more likely to vote for Biden than they were for Hillary. Those categories actually pretty much perfectly describe the "Anyone But Her" type voters who were most likely to sit out the election last time or vote third party. I think many will vote for Biden this time both because it is clear now Trump can win (some people probably stayed home or protested voted thinking he couldn't) and because Biden is less hated by moderates, WWC voters, and probably most Bernie supporters than Hillary was. They will more than offset those who go the other way.

I do not think the Republican delusions of Hispanics flipping to Trump in any significant numbers are remotely realistic. More likely to revert back to 2012 levels.

Had Bernie won, yeah it would be a different story. Trump would have a much better shot at getting Cubans (though not most other Hispanics) and moderates. And a better shot at gaining rather than losing some WWC support. Though obviously not the Bernie diehards, who would vote for... Bernie.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

White blue collar Democrats who stuck with Clinton in 16 but got turned off by the rhetoric being thrown around in the Democratic primaries.

[Kyng]

Yeah, with Biden as the nominee, there probably won't be *that* many, but here are some ideas:

1) People who moved rightwards between 2016 and 2020, for some external reason (e.g. a religious coversion). There will be some of these, but this answer feels like a cop-out, since these people don't form any kind of voter bloc in and of themselves (they simply moved from one existing bloc to another).

2) A small minority of 'Bernie Bros' will probably end up voting for Trump - either out of spite, or with an eye on future elections (hoping to avoid a 'red wave' in the 2022 midterms, and nominate a progressive in 2024). Granted, not all of these will be Obama-Clinton-Trump voters (many will have sat out 2016 or voted for a third party), but I suspect some will have reluctantly voted for Hillary, and then doubled down on 'opposing centrists' after she lost.

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared. Granted, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if Bernie had been the nominee), but there might be a decent number of these if Biden moves left to shore up his support among progressives. (Also, most people fitting this description would have voted for Romney in 2012... but, maybe some of them were annoyed by his "47%" comment or something?)

4) White working-class people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016, but then found that they liked Trump's positions on trade, and/or his record on jobs and the economy (and now don't blame him for a likely coronavirus-induced recession). Again, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if, say, Kamala had been the nominee) - but, unlike categories #2 and #3, this would have been a reliably "Obama-Clinton" category. (Also, even if these people don't end up being "Obama-Clinton-Trump" voters, I think this will be the place to look for "Obama-Clinton-Biden-2024 R" voters, even if the 2024 GOP nominee is "Generic R")

Do note that three of my four categories are made up of *reluctant* Hillary voters (of which there were plenty in 2016). It's hard for me to imagine any *enthusiastic* Hillary voters switching to Trump, unless they completely changed their politics in the mean time (thus putting them into category #1).

Having seen what's happened over the past two months, I now think most Obama-Clinton-Trump voters will be from group #1.

Following Trump's handling of recent events, most of the 'Bernie or Bust' people seem to be getting in line behind Biden (and even those who won't are going to vote third-party). As for groups #3 and #4: Biden is inoffensive enough to most of these people, and besides, Trump would need a credible "Peace and Prosperity" kind of message in order to win them over. However, barring some miraculous economic recovery, it seems that this is no longer possible.

As of today, I predict that there will be no Obama-Clinton-Trump voter blocs. #1 doesn't count: that's just people whose changes in life circumstances have moved them from one voter bloc to another.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yeah, with Biden as the nominee, there probably won't be *that* many, but here are some ideas:

1) People who moved rightwards between 2016 and 2020, for some external reason (e.g. a religious coversion). There will be some of these, but this answer feels like a cop-out, since these people don't form any kind of voter bloc in and of themselves (they simply moved from one existing bloc to another).

2) A small minority of 'Bernie Bros' will probably end up voting for Trump - either out of spite, or with an eye on future elections (hoping to avoid a 'red wave' in the 2022 midterms, and nominate a progressive in 2024). Granted, not all of these will be Obama-Clinton-Trump voters (many will have sat out 2016 or voted for a third party), but I suspect some will have reluctantly voted for Hillary, and then doubled down on 'opposing centrists' after she lost.

3) Right-leaning people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016 because they were scared of Trump, but now regard him as the lesser of two evils because he hasn't been as bad (from a conservative perspective) as they feared. Granted, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if Bernie had been the nominee), but there might be a decent number of these if Biden moves left to shore up his support among progressives. (Also, most people fitting this description would have voted for Romney in 2012... but, maybe some of them were annoyed by his "47%" comment or something?)

4) White working-class people who reluctantly voted for Hillary in 2016, but then found that they liked Trump's positions on trade, and/or his record on jobs and the economy (and now don't blame him for a likely coronavirus-induced recession). Again, having Biden as the nominee will keep their numbers down (compared to if, say, Kamala had been the nominee) - but, unlike categories #2 and #3, this would have been a reliably "Obama-Clinton" category. (Also, even if these people don't end up being "Obama-Clinton-Trump" voters, I think this will be the place to look for "Obama-Clinton-Biden-2024 R" voters, even if the 2024 GOP nominee is "Generic R")

Do note that three of my four categories are made up of *reluctant* Hillary voters (of which there were plenty in 2016). It's hard for me to imagine any *enthusiastic* Hillary voters switching to Trump, unless they completely changed their politics in the mean time (thus putting them into category #1).

Having seen what's happened over the past two months, I now think most Obama-Clinton-Trump voters will be from group #1.

Following Trump's handling of recent events, most of the 'Bernie or Bust' people seem to be getting in line behind Biden (and even those who won't are going to vote third-party). As for groups #3 and #4: Biden is inoffensive enough to most of these people, and besides, Trump would need a credible "Peace and Prosperity" kind of message in order to win them over. However, barring some miraculous economic recovery, it seems that this is no longer possible.

As of today, I predict that there will be no Obama-Clinton-Trump voter blocs. #1 doesn't count: that's just people whose changes in life circumstances have moved them from one voter bloc to another.

I once read a 2019 article (which I cannot find anymore) about people who voted Democratic in 2016/2018 but planned to vote for Trump in 2020. They were mostly a mix of #3 and #4 (and I believe mostly self-described independents) and seemed fairly enthusiastic about Trump. I highly doubt they are the kind of people who are swayed leftwards by the events of the last three months.

(Although you could imagine that if they had a really bad job loss and life wreckage, maybe they would now be hating Trump)