Contenders and pretenders

[Wakie]

Here's my take ...

Howard Dean - Contender.  Dean has run a very smart campaign.  He used the internet, he spent money early to get money later, he drew new people into the political process, and he got people excited.  That said, there's not a whole lot of substance there and the "angry guy" pesonae, while fun, is not electable.  He may take the primary but unless he becomes more statesman-like he won't last in the General election.

Wesley Clark - Pretender.  He started out with great #'s only to see them flop.  On paper he looks like a great candidate but in reality he doesn't really reveal much about himself.  I see him more as a VP candidate.  He's too inexperienced or the Presidential campaign.

John Kerry - Contender.  On paper he's the ideal candidate.  A war hero, ivy-league educated, experience in law enforcement, foreign policy, and with the SBA (Small Business Administration).  He's the most #'s oriented of the candidates.  His problem is that he's dry.  You get the feeling if you gave him a few drinks he could be a great candidate.  Maybe the new campaign manager will refocus things and get his #'s up.

Al Sharpton - Pretender.  Not a serious candidate, but the debates are certainly more fun with him in them.

Carol Mosley Braun - Pretender.  America is still a society of glass ceilings.  I think she is campaigning more for a high cabinet position.  Frankly I think she'd do well as Attorney General.  And frankly, I think America could use an African American woman as Attorney General.

Dennis Kucinich - Pretender.  He doesn't realize he's a pretender but he is.  Simply put, Dennis is too liberal.  His candidacy keeps Nader from running and draws the Green Party in closer to the Democrats.

John Edwards - Dark Horse Contender.  He's very slow out of the gates, but many Democrats I've talked to like him as a second choice candidate.  If he can gather some fire or garner a lot of press I wouldn't be shocked to see him make a run at it.  Frankly though he may just be 4 years too early.

Dick Gephardt - Contender.  You have to consider him as a contender because coming in he was probably the most prominant of the candidates.  His polling numbers are high enough and it is early enough that he could still make a run at it.

Joe Leiberman - Pretender.  I really have to wonder what he was thinking in running.  He's too conservative for the Democrats, too liberal for the Republicans, and too dry for most of America.

If I had to give them chances of winning the primary I'd put the following:

*Dean = 50%
*Kerry = 15%
*Gephardt = 11%
*Edwards = 10%
*Clark = 6%
*Kucinich = 3%
*Leiberman = 2.5%
*Braun = 1%
*Sharpton = 0.5%