President of Tanzania rejects $10 billion Chinese loan and tells China to f[inks] off

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/only-drunkard-would-accept-these-terms-tanzania-president-cancels-killer-chinese-loan-worth-10-818225

Good for Tanzania! China is basically a loan shark in regards to Africa. These are about as predatory deals as payday loans.

[Kingpoleon]

Magufuli is hardly the epitome of a great leader, but this is still good news. Tanzania is the premier regional power of East Africa, and if this continues, China may lose its grip on power in Africa. I’d hesitate to call it the beginning of the turn of momentum, though.

[Frodo]

Magufuli is hardly the epitome of a great leader, but this is still good news. Tanzania is the premier regional power of East Africa, and if this continues, China may lose its grip on power in Africa. I’d hesitate to call it the beginning of the turn of momentum, though.

I thought that was Kenya. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

We can cheer it all we want, but unless Europe and the US starts putting forward an ambitious program to support Africa's development, China is sooner or later going to turn it into its protectorate. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum almost as much as nature does.

[Bismarck]

The US should pick out a few stable democracies in Africa and direct investment heavily into them as a counterbalance to China. If possible we could do this in concert with the Europeans or the Japanese.

[dead0man]

The US should pick out a few stable democracies in Africa and direct investment heavily into them as a counterbalance to China. If possible we could do this in concert with the Europeans or the Japanese.

I'm not saying this is a bad idea, but this is a good way to get "proxy wars".  It wouldn't have to, but it certainly could.

[PSOL]

So Africa is the new terrain for this era’s Great Game I guess.

[Lord Halifax]

We can cheer it all we want, but unless Europe and the US starts putting forward an ambitious program to support Africa's development, China is sooner or later going to turn it into its protectorate. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum almost as much as nature does.

Those aren't the only options, e.g. India and Turkey are also trying to boost their influence and presence on the continent, Brazil showed interest in doing so under Lula and may return post-Bolsonaro. Both China and the West are problematic partners for Africa, so hopefully they can choose from a wider range of partners and avoid being dependent on one great power or "bloc".

[Lord Halifax]

Magufuli is hardly the epitome of a great leader, but this is still good news. Tanzania is the premier regional power of East Africa, and if this continues, China may lose its grip on power in Africa. I’d hesitate to call it the beginning of the turn of momentum, though.

I thought that was Kenya.  

Kenya and Ethiopia (with by far the biggest population), and Uganda is a strong military power.

The economic difference alone means Tanzania is second tier.

2019 GDP in billions of dollars:

Kenya 99.246
Ethiopia 90.968
Tanzania 61.032

Global Firepower's military power index:

Ethiopia 0.8581 (60th in the world)
Kenya 1.5287 (84th)
Uganda 1.617 (86th)
Tanzania 2.0651 (109th, below e.g. neighboring Zambia)

[Antonio the Sixth]

We can cheer it all we want, but unless Europe and the US starts putting forward an ambitious program to support Africa's development, China is sooner or later going to turn it into its protectorate. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum almost as much as nature does.

Those aren't the only options, e.g. India and Turkey are also trying to boost their influence and presence on the continent, Brazil showed interest in doing so under Lula and may return post-Bolsonaro. Both China and the West are problematic partners for Africa, so hopefully they can choose from a wider range of partners and avoid being dependent on one great power or "bloc".

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

[Kingpoleon]

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would beg to differ.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would beg to differ.

Japan has been in a depression for three decades. South Korea and Taiwan are far too small to project economic power.

[Lord Halifax]

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would beg to differ.

Japan has been in a depression for three decades. South Korea and Taiwan are far too small to project economic power.

SK is the world's 12th largest economy (or 11th according to the UN) with a GDP the size of Russia. Any highly developed country with a 50 mio.+ population is capable of projecting economic power abroad.

[Lord Halifax]

We can cheer it all we want, but unless Europe and the US starts putting forward an ambitious program to support Africa's development, China is sooner or later going to turn it into its protectorate. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum almost as much as nature does.

Those aren't the only options, e.g. India and Turkey are also trying to boost their influence and presence on the continent, Brazil showed interest in doing so under Lula and may return post-Bolsonaro. Both China and the West are problematic partners for Africa, so hopefully they can choose from a wider range of partners and avoid being dependent on one great power or "bloc".

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

You don't necessarily need a high degree of prosperity to project economic power abroad since government's can - and do - ignore large parts of their population. What you need is a big economy and a high technological level. India has both and (unfortunately) they're aren't likely to start using a lot of their resources on a "war on poverty" in their own country. The Modi regime clearly has global ambitions and consider itself a power with global interests (e.g. they're observers in the Arctic Council and have an Arctic program, as is China, SK, Japan and Singapore, basically the Asian countries that think of themselves as "global actors") and Indian businesses have a strong presence in many African countries (Zambia, Kenya etc.), and there is an Indian diaspora, not just the old South African one but also expats from the business community.

It doesn't necessarily have to be democracies African countries work with (Turkey and India aren't exactly model democracies) as long as they have choices so they can work with a number of external partners and avoid becoming sucked into a future "Great Game" between China and the US or relying on their former colonial masters (not necessarily a bad thing, but especially French Africa policy still has strong elements of neocolonialism). I do think that a number of mid-level powers have an interest in Africa and that they won't be left with a binary choice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We can cheer it all we want, but unless Europe and the US starts putting forward an ambitious program to support Africa's development, China is sooner or later going to turn it into its protectorate. Geopolitics abhors a vacuum almost as much as nature does.

Those aren't the only options, e.g. India and Turkey are also trying to boost their influence and presence on the continent, Brazil showed interest in doing so under Lula and may return post-Bolsonaro. Both China and the West are problematic partners for Africa, so hopefully they can choose from a wider range of partners and avoid being dependent on one great power or "bloc".

In theory I'd agree with you, but I don't believe that India or Brazil are anywhere close to achieving the degree of material prosperity necessary to project economic influence overseas. Latin American economies are still too dependent on commodity exports, which means they're rolling in cash when the price are high and utterly helpless when they're low. India still has mass poverty and isn't even close to attaining the kind of long-term growth China has had. It would be fantastic if we had non-Western democracies with economic power, but sadly that just hasn't materialized yet.

You don't necessarily need a high degree of prosperity to project economic power abroad since government's can - and do - ignore large parts of their population. What you need is a big economy and a high technological level. India has both and (unfortunately) they're aren't likely to start using a lot of their resources on a "war on poverty" in their own country. The Modi regime clearly has global ambitions and consider itself a power with global interests (e.g. they're observers in the Arctic Council and have an Arctic program, as is China, SK, Japan and Singapore, basically the Asian countries that think of themselves as "global actors") and Indian businesses have a strong presence in many African countries (Zambia, Kenya etc.), and there is an Indian diaspora, not just the old South African one but also expats from the business community.

It doesn't necessarily have to be democracies African countries work with (Turkey and India aren't exactly model democracies) as long as they have choices so they can work with a number of external partners and avoid becoming sucked into a future "Great Game" between China and the US or relying on their former colonial masters (not necessarily a bad thing, but especially French Africa policy still has strong elements of neocolonialism). I do think that a number of mid-level powers have an interest in Africa and that they won't be left with a binary choice.

Fair points. I don't know enough about India or other mid-level powers' capabilities to really counter that, and I certainly thing they'd be preferable to China as a local hegemon, but I still doubt they'll be able to truly compete when push comes to shove. We'll see, I guess.

[Quincy Kelley]

I think now might be a good time for the US to get involved & influence some of these African countries, by pivoting them away from China.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think now might be a good time for the US to get involved & influence some of these African countries, by pivoting them away from China.

If the US was capable of having anything resembling a coherent, long-term foreign policy right now and wasn't so obscenely stingy about its foreign aid, yes, it certainly would be.

[dead0man]

7.5% of the US deficit last year was foreign aid, but yeah, we clearly don't do enough   Maybe if it was 25%?

[Antonio the Sixth]

7.5% of the US deficit

Ah, yes, measuring the weight of spending items as a percentage of the deficit makes total sense. Very meaningful figure. We've got a big-brained fiscal policy expert right here, folks.