GA-GOV 2022: Gov. Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams rematch

[Suburbia]

Who wins in a rematch?

[pppolitics]

Abrums is strongly favored.

The Democratic candidate's share of the vote has increased every election since 2006.

Conversely, the Republican candidate's share of the vote has decreased every election since 2006.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abrams

[Orwell]

Biden midterm - Kemp albeit narrowly

Trump midterm Easily Abrams

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Kemp should be favored.

[Upstater]

Who's president in 2022?

[S019]

Probably Abrams, but if it's a Biden midterm, Kemp could pull it off, but because of Georgia's inelasticity, the midterm effect may not matter, as much as it would in very elastic states, like Iowa.

[SnowLabrador]

Kemp, for voter suppression will be much worse in 2022 than it was in 2018 with him being governor now.

[Frenchrepublican]

55% of respondents think that Kemp would lose ? That's insane.

[Frenchrepublican]

Kemp obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection.

[Orwell]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

[Frenchrepublican]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

That was in 1990, in other words a long time ago.

The last governor with a positive job approval rate who lost reelection was Ehrlich in 2006, since then every governor with a positive approval rate has won reelection. Don't see why GA would break the rule, especially when you consider that GA is far more republican friendly than MD was in 2006.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy Abrams, even in a run off scenario can defeat Kemp in 2022

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Kemp.

This will be surprisingly easy. 

[Orwell]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

That was in 1990, in other words a long time ago.

The last governor with a positive job approval rate who lost reelection was Ehrlich in 2006, since then every governor with a positive approval rate has won reelection. Don't see why GA would break the rule, especially when you consider that GA is far more republican friendly than MD was in 2006.

Kemp is a polarizing figure as is Abrams, but any advantage Kemp has with incumbency Abrams gets with trends against him. 

[Del Tachi]

Obviously and easily Kemp.  Popular incumbents don’t lose, and retreads are unpopular. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously and easily Kemp.  Popular incumbents don’t lose, and retreads are unpopular. 

GA is trending D

[Frenchrepublican]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

That was in 1990, in other words a long time ago.

The last governor with a positive job approval rate who lost reelection was Ehrlich in 2006, since then every governor with a positive approval rate has won reelection. Don't see why GA would break the rule, especially when you consider that GA is far more republican friendly than MD was in 2006.

Kemp is a polarizing figure as is Abrams, but any advantage Kemp has with incumbency Abrams gets with trends against him. 

So if we follow your logic, despite being fairly popular, Whitmer, Walz and Evers would lose under a Biden midterm because #muhTrends ?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Has there been a poll since the Coronavirus hit of Kemp’s job approval? He’s been getting dragged pretty hard here for his idiotic response.

[Orwell]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

That was in 1990, in other words a long time ago.

The last governor with a positive job approval rate who lost reelection was Ehrlich in 2006, since then every governor with a positive approval rate has won reelection. Don't see why GA would break the rule, especially when you consider that GA is far more republican friendly than MD was in 2006.

Kemp is a polarizing figure as is Abrams, but any advantage Kemp has with incumbency Abrams gets with trends against him. 

So if we follow your logic, despite being fairly popular, Whitmer, Walz and Evers would lose under a Biden midterm because #muhTrends ?

Whitmer and Evers probably walz no

[libertpaulian]

Her VP audition tour won't make her look good if she runs in 2022.

[Yellowhammer]

Abrams would probably get ripped a new one, especially if Biden is president.

[Xing]

Why are people so confident that Kemp will still be popular in 2022, especially if Trump is president? Either way, too soon to tell, but Abrams probably isn’t helping herself right now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden midterm: Likely Kemp

Trump midterm: Pure tossup/tilt Kemp

I don't have much faith in actually flipping GA before 2024. In particular, because Kemp as gov is still in charge and will do whatever he can to restrict voting and remove voters from the rolls. I don't see Dems flipping the gov mansion in 2022 even if 2020 were to become some sort of landslide where Biden narrowly carries the state. In a Biden midterm, Abrams isn't winning even if said midterms are a neutral year and not a wave like 2010 or 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

Kemb obviously, he is broadly popular and governors with a positive approval rate never lose reelection

James Blanchard? And that's not always true maybe focus a little more on the big picture.

That was in 1990, in other words a long time ago.

The last governor with a positive job approval rate who lost reelection was Ehrlich in 2006, since then every governor with a positive approval rate has won reelection. Don't see why GA would break the rule, especially when you consider that GA is far more republican friendly than MD was in 2006.

Kemp is a polarizing figure as is Abrams, but any advantage Kemp has with incumbency Abrams gets with trends against him. 

So if we follow your logic, despite being fairly popular, Whitmer, Walz and Evers would lose under a Biden midterm because #muhTrends ?

Whitmer and Evers probably walz no

In this case you have to explain your reasoning, because MN is less democratic friendly than GA is republican, so if Kemp loses under a Trump midterm, Walz would lose under a Biden one. Trends work both way, not just the way you like.