FL-St. Pete Polls: Biden+1

[ajc0918]

If the November Presidential election were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?

Donald Trump: 47.5%
Joe Biden: 48.3%
Undecided: 4.2%

Biden + 0.8% but within MoE

Link: http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_April17_G84JW.pdf

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Obama’s 3 point win in 2008 looks like a landslide compared to most recent Florida elections

[Bidenworth2020]

Worth noting that they have Trump with a 49-47 approval despite Biden leading.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida was always either going to be another 1% affair either way or a 2004 style Trump +5.

That having been said, it would be very useful for Biden to have a backdoor path if nothing in the Rust Belt works out.  This is a 272 EV Biden win:

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden really needs to make a serious effort because he can win it. 

He can get back some of the vote in and around Tampa Bay that was lost in 2016.  And maximize the vote coming out of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade from the diverse communities there.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, DeSantis's approval seems a bit too high considering recent events.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden really needs to make a serious effort because he can win it. 

He can get back some of the vote in and around Tampa Bay that was lost in 2016.  And maximize the vote coming out of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade from the diverse communities there.

I can certainly see Biden having a special appeal to retirees vs. Generic Dem.  I can also see Trump getting an extra 5% in Miami-Dade and making it all irrelevant though.

[afleitch]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

It's interesting that he wasn't hurting nearly as much as Clinton in North Florida in the primary. 

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden really needs to make a serious effort because he can win it. 

He can get back some of the vote in and around Tampa Bay that was lost in 2016.  And maximize the vote coming out of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade from the diverse communities there.

Have you already looked at registration numbers trends in exurban counties around Tampa ?
Spoiler : they are really bad for democrats

A (unlikely) Biden win in FL would have to run trough Jacksonville not the Tampa Bay area.

[Frenchrepublican]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

[President Johnson]

I take it.

[Frenchrepublican]

Worth noting that they have Trump with a 49-47 approval despite Biden leading.

It just means that people who hate Trump are already behind Biden while undecideds will likely break in favour of Trump.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This seems to line up with internal data i have seen to suggest Biden has a very small lead. In part it's most likely because of coronavirus because of the data I am seeing before and after. Overall I still will say Trump is still the favorite right now to win the state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

No, multiple polls have showed that Biden has strength with older voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lower than that 6 pt poll. Trump is gonna win FL

[OneJ]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

I mean Scott won by less than a percentage point so despite the pollster getting the winner wrong they weren't far off margin-wise.

[Frenchrepublican]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

I mean Scott won by less than a percentage point so despite the pollster getting the winner wrong they weren't far off margin-wise.

4 points is pretty far off, especially when you consider that this pollster is using very huge samples.

[Frenchrepublican]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

No, multiple polls have showed that Biden has strength with older voters.

Multiple polls ? The ones which have Trump losing the PV by more than McCain did in 2008.

And basing your argument on polls is not the best thing to do, poll subsamples have generally a very huge MOE, it's why you have some polls where Trump does quite well with millenials.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden really needs to make a serious effort because he can win it.  

He can get back some of the vote in and around Tampa Bay that was lost in 2016.  And maximize the vote coming out of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade from the diverse communities there.

Have you already looked at registration numbers trends in exurban counties around Tampa ?
Spoiler : they are really bad for democrats

A (unlikely) Biden win in FL would have to run trough Jacksonville not the Tampa Bay area.

I'm talking about Hillsborough County--in which we have an apartment--plus Pinellas and Manatee counties (the three counties that surround Tampa Bay).  Hillsborough has grown nearly 25% in the last decade.  Biden could widen the margin in Hillsborough, take back Pinellas, and cut the margin in Manatee.  Exurban counties like Pasco and DeSoto are off limits for the Democrats.

Tampa is a smaller version of Atlanta--and like Atlanta, there's plenty of towns around Tampa that are growing and are transforming rapidly.

[libertpaulian]

Biden really needs to make a serious effort because he can win it.  

He can get back some of the vote in and around Tampa Bay that was lost in 2016.  And maximize the vote coming out of Broward, Palm Beach, and Miami-Dade from the diverse communities there.

Have you already looked at registration numbers trends in exurban counties around Tampa ?
Spoiler : they are really bad for democrats

A (unlikely) Biden win in FL would have to run trough Jacksonville not the Tampa Bay area.

I'm talking about Hillsborough County--in which we have an apartment--plus Pinellas and Manatee counties (the three counties that surround Tampa Bay).  Hillsborough has grown nearly 25% in the last decade.  Biden could widen the margin in Hillsborough, take back Pinellas, and cut the margin in Manatee.  Exurban counties like Pasco and DeSoto are off limits for the Democrats.

Tampa is a smaller version of Atlanta--and like Atlanta, there's plenty of towns around Tampa that are growing and are transforming rapidly.

Even in those exurban counties, maybe Biden can cut the margins a bit.

For example, Pasco went from 52-46 Romney to 58-37 Trump.  Maybe Biden could make that into 57-40 Trump or something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida was always either going to be another 1% affair either way or a 2004 style Trump +5.

That having been said, it would be very useful for Biden to have a backdoor path if nothing in the Rust Belt works out.  This is a 272 EV Biden win:

Dems arent losing WI, PA and MI

[Pollster]

Again, old people seem to like Biden.

And that's based on what ? A poll from a pollster which had Scott losing by 4

I mean Scott won by less than a percentage point so despite the pollster getting the winner wrong they weren't far off margin-wise.

4 points is pretty far off, especially when you consider that this pollster is using very huge samples.

This isn't how polling works.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not going to go through with biting my nails over this state this year, even if it looks that way.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I don't trust this poll with Biden leading among olds because on the ground that is not what the data is suggesting, he's doing better with older people in general but he's certainly not leading them.