If presidential elections had been held in off years
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: If presidential elections had been held in off years  (Read 2332 times)
Coolface Sock #42069
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« on: April 16, 2020, 11:02:44 PM »
...what would the maps look like? Who would the nominees have been?

2014 - Generic R 270, Obama 240, Tossup 28

What I can only assume would have been a healthy popular vote win for Republicans would nevertheless have been very close in the Electoral College.

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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 11:32:19 PM »


2002

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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2020, 02:04:57 PM »
I'm not even sure if Hawaii would go Democratic in 2002
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2020, 03:06:14 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2020, 03:12:52 PM by Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager »
Based on the House popular vote, the 2018 map would have looked like:



Give or take Florida, Arizona, and Ohio based on Senate races. Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina also would have likely been in play with Trump himself on the ballot given the close margins and swings there.

2006 map would have been very interesting. Could have looked something like this:



Much would depend on the specific candidate running against Bush, of course. But honestly I don't think that map would have been unreasonable for Hillary in 2006 or 2008.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 06:56:56 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 07:02:50 AM by Tekken_Guy »
2018:
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2020, 08:09:18 AM »
Here are some of my guesses:

2018



Democratic candidate: 53% (289 EVs)
Trump: 45% (249 EVs)

The Electoral college is deceptively close, though the "tipping point states" are all comfortably won by the Dem candidate by 3-4 points, while many R states are incredibly close (most notably FL, which does not disappoint and goes for Trump by literally 0.1%)

2014



Republican: 51% (314 EVs)
Obama: 46% (224 EVs)

2010



Republican: 52% (356 EVs)
Obama: 45% (182 EVs)

2006



Democrat: 52% (371 EVs)
Republican: 44% (167 EVs)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2020, 07:56:56 AM »

It’s possible that only DC goes Democrats in 2002.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2020, 05:03:47 AM »
Doesn't "off year" precisely mean "off-presidential contest years"?
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Chips
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« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2020, 07:27:51 PM »
2018:




Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 334 electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 204 electoral votes and 45% of the popular vote

2014:




Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan: 284 electoral votes and 50% of the popular vote
President Obama/Joe Biden: 254 electoral votes and 48% of the popular vote

2010:



John McCain/Sarah Palin: 333 electoral votes and 52% of the popular vote
Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 205 electoral votes and 46% of the popular vote
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2020, 03:56:50 PM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on July 07, 2020, 05:03:47 AM
Doesn't "off year" precisely mean "off-presidential contest years"?
that's what I thought.
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𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆
Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2020, 04:49:23 PM »
Quote from: Epaminondas on July 07, 2020, 05:03:47 AM
Doesn't "off year" precisely mean "off-presidential contest years"?

Well I've never heard "off year" to refer to midterm elections, so I think it means more "off - of - congressional - or - presidential - contests years"

oFF years are also always oDD years, by the way
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2023, 08:39:39 PM »
1974

President Gerald Ford (R-MI) / Senator Bob Dole (R-KS)
Senator Frank Church (D-ID) / Senator Lawton Chiles (D-FL) ✓

Watergate.

1982

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / Vice President George Bush (R-TX) ✓
Fmr. Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN) / Senator Gary Hart (D-CO)

1994

President Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)
Fmr. HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY) / Governor Carroll Campbell (R-SC) ✓

Pre-triangulation Clinton.

2022

President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) ✓
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
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Make America Grumpy Again
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2023, 02:06:11 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2023, 02:11:54 AM by Bernie Huckabee Sanders »
I'll go back about 30 years.


1994:


Clinton = 0

1998:


Clinton = +36

2002:
Bush = 535 E.V.

2006:


2010:


Obama=-2

2014:


Obama= -2

2018:


Trump=-18

2022:


Biden=-15
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ReaganLimbaugh
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2023, 03:42:18 PM »
What about 1970 with Wallace in the pciture.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2023, 06:56:41 PM »
1994:
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ReaganLimbaugh
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2023, 04:39:36 PM »
If it were 1994, Bill Clinton would have been bombed back into the Stone Age.
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