I actually wonder whether there is any conceivable scenario where Trump wins reelection and loses the senate to Dems? I doubt, but if so, the path very likely goes through NC.
That would seem unlikely based on 2018, of whose Senate races showed the biggest alignment with state presidential results in generations. Split ticketing voting is at an all-time low.
Do you mean 2016? 2018 Senate races, while well-correlated with the 2016 map, had a lot of aberrations in county results, such as in WV, ND, Montana, Ohio and even places like NY and Maine
