With Trump it has changed, economy is no longer the most important factor for many voters, many people are no longer voting with their wallet but according their social values. (just look at which party is representing the richest congressional districts)
Right, well, all I'm saying is that would be a major change from how past elections have played out, and there have been a lot of studies on this. Changes in the economy (GDP, jobs, etc) have a direct correlation to the ruling party's performance. I posted an article about it a couple weeks ago too, which did have a small caveat that increased polarization could reduce (but not eliminate) the effect of the economy because people were so entrenched in support for their party that they are less swayed, but that has yet to be proven, because we haven't had a recession election under current levels of polarization. So this is really the first test of the idea. 2008 wouldn't count for a number of reasons, but the primary being that there was undoubtedly a lot of cross-party voting up and downballot, especially in the south, indicating notably less polarization.
Yeah, that's also my opinion, I don't really see how can Trump loses by more than six points
