The Iron Frau - A German Politics Timeline

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

November 2nd, 2013: Multiple thousand people have protested in Hamburg in favor of a more welcoming refugee-policy. First Mayor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has rejected to receive refugees from Lampedusa.
November 4nd, 2013: High officials from German and American security agencies have met for negotiations potentially leading to a “no-spy-agreement.”
November 5nd, 2013: Cem Özdemir (Greens) has announced that the Greens would aim for a result of “10 percent plus x” at the upcoming election for the European parliament.
November 8nd, 2013: Merkel stated that the federal government will focus on the reduction of energy prices.
November 10nd, 2013: Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) has announced that her ministry plans to draft a bill that would force unions and employers to negotiate standard wages in nearly all economic sectors. SPD-General Secretary Andrea Nahles that the SPD will continue to fight for a federal minimum wage of at least 8.50€ per hour.
November 13nd, 2013: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has come out in support of national plebicites. The CDU opposes that idea.
November 13nd, 2013: Hesse still has to find a new government. Media reports have stated that negotiations between SPD, Greens and LEFT have failed.

November 14th, 2013
Rolf


Olaf Kosinsky: Torsten Albig, SPD, auf dem SPD Bundesparteitag am 19. März 2017 in Berlin, CC 3.0 BY via Wikimedia

The party conference has welcomed its outgoing leader, Sigmar Gabriel, with a mild applause when he walked to the lectern, about to begin his opening speech. Gabriel’s speech has been the great uncertainty. It would not just determine his legacy, it would determine the spirit of the whole party conference. The congress center in Leipzig was packed with delegates, guests and journalists. No one knew what Gabriel had to say. He refused to show his manuscript to any member of the party committee. Andrea Nahles expected the worst. She expected that the conference was about to see a vengeful Gabriel, a Gabriel that was out for blood, a Gabriel that would spontaneously announce to jump on the leadership ballot at the last second.

But Gabriel knew that this was also about his legacy, and he had understood that his career did not have to be over.

“Four years ago, you elected me as leader of the party. We were in a difficult situation. We had lost regional election after regional election. We had received our worst election result since the beginning of the Second World War. We were punished by many people who had voted SPD all their lives. They did not trust us, because they had no reason to trust us. I wanted to regain that trust. But I failed.”

Gabriel’s brutal honesty was strange for the majority of delegates, as they had never heard such a self-criticism from Gabriel before. He was not out for blood, Nahles understood.

“It wasn’t all bad. In nearly all regional elections since 2009, the SPD was stronger than it was before. This is not nothing. This is something we can be proud of.”

By the end of Gabriel’s speech, everyone in the room remembered why Gabriel was elected in the first place. He was a darn good speaker. He was a sharp mind. Under thunderous applause, he exclaimed: “Our party was not dead in 2009. Our party is in a better shape than it was four years ago. We are stronger than most of our opponents want us to be. And the best chance to further strengthen this party is to elect Rolf Mützenich as leader of the SPD!”

And then he waved and received flowers and then Mützenich joined him on stage and they stood there arm in arm under the roaring applause of the crowd and Mützenich thought Thank you, you have just ruined my speech.

He hadn’t. Gabriel may have been a good speaker, but Mützenich was great.

“The absolute majority shows the absolute arrogance that happens when privileged people make their own rules. I was not privileged. My parents did not graduate. They were regular working people. Their story is a story that many people share. But my story, the story of a child of such people that ended up participating in writing the rules, is not. This is the fundamental injustice in the German society. So my message is to everybody who has been neglected by our government: The SPD will let you have a say.”

Mützenich hoped for 90 percent plus x. In the end, 97.2% of the convention voted for him.

Andrea Nahles had to go as general secretary. That was a concession the conservative wing of the SPD had asked for and that was a concession Nahles was willing to offer. Natascha Kohnen, general secretary of the Bavarian SPD, was elected with 92.5%.

For the Anti-Gabriel-Alliance, everything went really smoothly. They had successfully installed Mützenich as a placeholder. But Mützenich was not stupid. He understood how they played. And he did not want to be a placeholder. He knew he had the gravitas to influence what the rest of the leadership committee could look like. The alliance had planned to install the incumbents Olaf Scholz, Aydan Özoğuz, Manuela Schwesig and Hannelore Kraft as deputy-leaders and to replace resigning deputy-leader Klaus Wowereit with Hessian SPD-leader Thorsten Schäfer Gümbel, a member of the conservative wing.

Mützenich knew he could not win against the alliance, so he had to destroy the alliance before the game started. His plan was to persuade two others to run for deputy-leader: Karl Lauterbach, a conservative, but a friend of his, and Andrea Nahles herself. She had serious doubts, but Mützenich assured her that he had his support. When the news broke that Nahles and Lauterbach would make the leadership election competitive, a turmoil arose among the members. For the first time in his young tenure, Mützenich was about to make a bold move and to take a high risk.

“I think the situation proves that,” he said, as he took the stage, “it is really enough with the backroom deals. It is time to stop trading offices and jobs for strategical purposes. Let’s risk more democracy and hand the decision to the delegates. So I urge everybody who wants to run to throw their hat into the ring.” The delegates loved the idea, but Olaf Scholz was in panic. He wanted to talk with Nahles about the next steps, but she had no interest in talking to him. The conference chair decided to suspend the conference for half an hour, so that all candidates could declare their candidacy to the chair. Half an hour later, there were twelve candidates for five deputy-leadership positions. This kind of contest was unprecedented.

“Olaf Scholz. Hannelore Kraft. Aydan Özoğuz. Manuela Schwesig. Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel. Andrea Nahles. Karl Lauterbach. Ralf Stegner. Sascha Vogt. Raed Saleh. Martin Dulig. Hilde Mattheis.”

Nobody knew who all these people were, but well, some of them got elected somehow. Hannelore Kraft, Andrea Nahles, Martin Dulig, Hilde Mattheis and, just barely, Olaf Scholz made the cut.

The rest of the leadership election was similar. There were 59 candidates for 26 posts in the leadership committee.

For Mützenich, the conference was a victory. For Scholz and the Anti-Gabriel-Alliance, it was a disaster.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

November 20nd, 2013: The Bundestag voted in favor of a continuation of military operations in Dafur and in South Sudan.
November 23nd, 2013: Horst Seehofer was re-elected as leader of the CSU with 95% of the vote.
November 23nd, 2013: In Hesse, CDU and Greens have decided to begin negotiations to form a coalition.
November 24nd, 2013: In Kiev, several thousand people have protested against Ukrainian President Wiktor Janukowitsch and in favor of an alignment with the European Union.
November 26nd, 2013: The German Data-Report 2013 showed that, although unemployment is shrinking, poverty is on the rise. SPD-Leader Mützenich called these findings “a proof of bad governing.”
November 28nd, 2013: Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) came out in support of restricting the legislature’s powers in military-related matters. Jan Korte (LEFT) disagreed, stating that “the Bundeswehr is not the army of the government but the army of the parliament, for good reasons.”
December 1st, 2013: More than 100.000 people have assembled in Kiev to protest against the Ukrainian government. SPD-Leader Mützenich praised the pro-European sentiment of the protesters. Chancellor Merkel has called for President Janukowitsch to ensure that the protesters can voice their opinions freely.
December 2st, 2013: The Federal Council (Bundesrat), the representation of the states in parliament, has submitted a joint motion to the Federal Constitutional Court that seeks the dissolution of the National Democratic Party (NPD). President of the Council, Stephan Weil (SPD-Lower Saxony) has called the NPD a “deeply racist, deeply extremist party, which stands in the tradition of national socialism.” The NPD has received 1.1 percent in the last general election and is currently represented in the state parliaments of Saxony and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, as well as in several municipal councils.
December 3rd, 2013: Foreign Minister Altmaier (CDU) has traveled to Kiev to join a conference of the Organization for Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). He called the situation in the Ukraine a “deeply European matter.” Russian Foreign Minister Lawrow stated that his country was concerned about the situation in the Ukraine but called for the west not to interfere in Ukrainian matters.
December 5th, 2013: Vice-Chancellor Friedrich (CSU) urged the EU to maintain border controls for migrants from Bulgaria and Romania in order to prevent poverty-driven migration from both countries. Bulgaria and Romania are members of the EU since 2007 but will obtain the freedom of movement at the beginning of 2014.
December 7th, 2013: Christian Lindner has formally been elected leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP). He declared that, after the party’s historic defeat, its renewal process could last for a very long time and that the members should not satisfying results in the next elections.

Source: Dirk Vorderstraße, Landtagswahlkampfauftakt der FDP in Münster. CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia

December 8th, 2013: Federal President Gauck will not travel to the Olympic Winter Games in Sotschi, citing human rights abuses by the Russian government.

RECENT POLLING +++
MANY GERMANS WANT A LIBERAL PARTY, JUST NOT THE FDP

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 42% (+1%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 27% (+1%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (-1%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 8% (no change)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 4% (-1%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5% (+1%)
others ……... 6%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel ………. 51 (-19%)
Rolf Mützenich ………. 35% (new)
Gregor Gysi ……… 3% (-1)

Should there be a liberal party in the Bundestag? Should it be the FDP?

Yes, a liberal party should be in the Bundestag ……… 31%
No, a liberal party does not have to be in the Bundestag ………  65%
Yes, the FDP should be in the Bundestag ………  13%
No, the FDP does not have to be in the Bundestag ………  80%

Do you approve of the statement that the FDP is a party “for the wealthy?”

Approve ………  79%
Disapprove ………  15%

If there was a liberal party other than the FDP, who would you vote for? (± compared to actual voting intention)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ………  35% (-7%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ………  25% (-2%)
Hypothetical Liberal Party ………  16%
The LEFT (LINKE) ………  8% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ………  5% (-3%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ………  1% (-3%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ………  3% (-2%)
others ………  7%
December 10th, 2013: Defense Minister Reinhard Brandl (CSU) has visited the German troops stationed in Kosovo. With 675 soldiers, Germany provides the largest contingent of the 5000 men and women from 31 countries.
December 10th, 2013: Lower-Saxony’s SPD-Green government has eliminated tuition fees, being the last state in the country to do so.

[Former President tack50]

Personally looking forward to see how Merkel deals with the refugees when they come

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Personally looking forward to see how Merkel deals with the refugees when they come

[refugees have joined the chat]
CSU: [disliked this]

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

December 11th, 2013: In a recent poll, 25% of Germans named Helmut Schmidt (SPD, 1974-1982) as the most important German chancellor, followed by Helmut Kohl (23%, CDU, 1982-1998) and Willy Brandt (18%, SPD, 1969-1974).
December 12th, 2013: Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) has urged the Greek government to continue its austerity policy.
December 14th, 2013: Justice Minister Hermann Gröhe announced that his ministry would prepare a new data-retention-law. In 2007, Germany had passed a law forcing every telecommunication provider to retain any data for the duration of six months in order to facilitate criminal investigations. However, that law was declared unconstitutional in 2010. Cem Özdemir (Green) questioned that similar law could be successful.
December 14th, 2013: The number of asylum requests has reached 100,000. That is a plus of 70% compared to last year. Almost 12,000 of those were requested by Syrian refugees. Vice Chancellor Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) announced that Germany would seek to reduce the numbers of asylum seekers in Germany.
December 15th, 2013: The AfD may have violated political donation laws. According to reports, the party has received over 1,000,000€ in loans. The conditions of these loans were inadequately generous which suggest that these loans were in fact disguised contributions. All political contributions have to be reported to the President of the Bundestag.
December 19th, 2013: Chancellor Merkel’s assessment of the EU-summit is mixed. She complains that the EU-governments have failed to agree on binding economic reforms. However, she is content with the agreement over a joint supervision of the banking sector.
December 23th, 2013: Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU) and Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens) have signed their coalition agreement.
December 24th, 2013: In his Christmas address, Federal President Gauck urged Germany be more accepting towards refugees. Reports show that the number of attacks on refugee homes has doubled compared to 2012.

Source: Tobias Kleinschmidt, 50th Munich Security Conference 2014: Joachim Gauck. CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia

December 27th, 2013: Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has put the plans of his ministry in more concrete terms: “We plan to cancel the car tax in exchange for the road toll.” German Automobile Associations and SPD-deputy leader Martin Dulig criticized the plans: “That would burden owners of used cars and the owners of Porsche-cars equally.”
December 29th, 2013: CSU-leader Horst Seehofer has announced that his party will campaign against poverty-driven migration prior the elections for the European parliament, echoing concerns from within his party that immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania will fraudulently try to optain social benefits once they are able to travel freely in the European Union. “Frauds will be deported,” he announced. “We are not the welfare office of the world.”
December 30th, 2013: SPD, LEFT and Greens have criticized Seehofer for his statements against migrants. “Seehofer is trying to construct a problem that does not exist,” SPD-deputy leader Hilde Mattheis stated. LEFT-co-leader Bernd Riexinger speculates that “Seehofer is copying statements from AfD and NPD because they put him under enormous pressure.”

January 1st, 2014

Bernd

One year ago, Bernd Lucke was professor for macroeconomics in Hamburg. A year later, he was one of the most controversial figures in Germany. The holidays were the only time in the year when Lucke finally, just for a moment, could rest.

Bernd Lucke was co-founder and co-leader of the Alternative for Germany. Last year, the party barely missed the threshold for the entry of the Bundestag. In the polls, the AfD was hovering around 5%. We are few, he knew. But five percent is a considerable portion of the German population. 2014 would be a crucial year for the AfD. In the fall, there were regional elections in the East: Saxony, Brandenburg, Thuringia. In the general election, the AfD received more than 6% in those states. But the most important election would be much earlier. On May 25th, the people in the EU would elect their respective delegations to the European parliament. The European election would be the AfD’s time to shine. After all, Europe was the issue the AfD was founded on.

It was Merkel’s handling of the euro crisis that lead to the founding of the AfD. Stop the financial waste, abolish the euro, go back to national currencies, re-delegate competences back to the national states. The EU was too big, to powerful. That was his message, and Lucke, the professor, did a good job in promoting his message, but other members of his party had other plans. Frauke Petry, his co-leader, was considerable more right-wing than Lucke was. Yes, the euro-stuff was important, but she wanted to talk about other issues: Islam, refugees, immigration. She refused to decline membership applications from former members of small right-wing parties. She wanted to drag the party to the right.

That would work if the circumstances were different, Lucke knew. But he also knew that the next German government would be considerable more conservative as well. Seehofer would fight as hard as possible to not lose any voters to the AfD. But the decline of the FDP left room for another party. Stepping into that void was Lucke’s goal. Transform the AfD into a liberal-conservative movement. The party of personal responsibility. The party that would re-distribute powers to the bottom of the pyramid. But that would mean that the AfD had to fight rigorously against racism and bigotry within its ranks.

And some in the AfD did not want this fight at all.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

January 3rd, 2014: SPD-Leader Rolf Mützenich has called for more calmness in the debate over poverty-driven migration: “I don’t see why this is an issue right now.”
January 5th, 2014: Health Minister Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) has complained about the shortage of physicians in rural areas and has promoted the idea of a “Country-Doctor-Agreement”, a mechanism that would grant eased access to med school for students who commit to practice in rural areas after they have finished their studies.
January 7th, 2014: Chancellor Merkel reportedly has suffered a pelvic fracture during her winter vacation.
January 8th, 2014: Transport Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) has laid out more details concerning the introduction of the road toll. Dobrindt plans the introduction of toll discs and reductions of the car tax in combination with special rebates for environmental friendly vehicles. Katrin Göring-Eckard called Dobrindt’s toll plans “mental gymnastics beyond olympic levels.”

© Vincent Eisfeld / nordhausen-wiki.de / CC-BY-SA-4.0

January 9th, 2014: In Athens, Foreign Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) has appreciated Greece’s progress concerning the overcoming of its financial crisis. “The reforms were hard, but necessary.”
January 10th, 2014: According to recent polling, 68% of Germans approve the statement that the German economy needs immigration. However, 75% of Germans approve the statement that the government does not care enough about the negative effects of immigration.
January 13th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer does not see a national obligation to provide social services to foreign EU-nationals in Germany. “The European Union is no social union,” he stated.
January 13th, 2014: SPD-deputy leader and first mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, has defended the  establishment of “danger zones” encompassing the red-light districts of the city centre, in which a curfew was imposed and stop and frisk rules were put into effect as a result of recent attacks on law enforcement officials.
January 13th, 2014: Former Lower-Saxonian Prime Minister David McAllister will be the CDU’s top candidate for the upcoming European elections. McAllister had been prime minister of Lower-Saxony from 2010 until the regional election in early 2013, when the SPD-Green coalition gained a majority of one seat in the regional parliament.
January 14th, 2014: The US-government will reportedly not sign a No-Spy-Agreement with the German government. Government officials and opposition politicians are outraged.
RECENT POLLING +++
GERMANS DIVIDED ON SEEHOFER’S STANCES ON IMMIGRATION

Do you think poverty-driven migration is a problem?

Yes ……… 51%
No ………. 43%

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 37% (-3%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 29% (+2%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 7% (-1%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 3% (-1%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5% (no change)
others ……... 11%

If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel ………. 45 (-6%)
Rolf Mützenich ………. 40% (+5%)
Gregor Gysi ……… 3% (no change)

If the election for the European Parliament were held today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 39% (+1.1%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 29% (+9%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 8% (+0.5%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 8% (-3.9%)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 3% (-8%)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 5%(new)

Out of the presumtive top-candidates for the European election, who do you prefer?

Martin Schulz (SPD) ………. 21%
David McAllister (CDU) ……… 15%
Bernd Lucke (AfD) ……… 8%
Others/Don’t Know ……… 56%
January 18th, 2014: Volker Bouffier (CDU) was re-election for a second term as Hessian Prime Minister. He will lead a CDU-Green coalition. It is only the second CDU-Green coalition in the history of the Federal Republic.
January 19th, 2014: SPD-Leader Rolf Mützenich urged Justice Minister Herman Gröhe (CDU) to stop the preparation of a new data-retention-law. “The NSA-scandal has taught us that data is a valuable possession that the government must be very careful with,” he stated.
January 20th, 2014: Martin Schulz (SPD), the president of the European parliament, announced his intention to seek the Party of European Socialists’s nomination for president of the European commission.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

January 24th, 2014: Amid violent protests, Ukrainian President Janukowitsch has promised reforms. The opposition meanwhile has stated that it will not support an agreement with the Ukrainian government.
January 25th, 2014: Bernd Lucke was elected as the AfD’s top-candidate for the upcoming European election.
January 26th, 2014: Martin Schulz was elected as the SPD’s top-candidate for the upcoming European election. During a special party conference in Berlin, the SPD urged for reforms, transforming the EU commission to a European government.

January 27th, 2014

Cem


Source: Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Cem Özdemir im Interview. CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia

The reform of the Renewable-Energy-Act (EEG) was the first real battle of the new Bundestag that the Greens could actually benefit from, but it was boring as hell.

Sure, tempers were running high as the Federal Government was on the verge of altering the whole basis for the transition to renewable energy sources, but boy, it was a very technical issue, an issue that you needed a lot of knowledge for, it was dry math, and Cem Özdemir knew that it was very hard to make good TV out of that debate. That was why he asked his parliamentary group to let him speak in the debate.

Environment Minister Artur Auernhammer was not exactly a very captivating person. In his deep Bavarian tone, he recited a long list of details of the new bill. He talked about “energy corridors,” “pay-as-you-go funding systems,” and “competition-oriented government.” This was not something the public could understand, and the rest of the opposition was not really helpful. Matthias Miersch,  the SPD’s frontman on environmental issues brought up valid critique but forgot that he spoke in a plenary session and not in an expert committee. And Hubertus Zdebel (LEFT) did not really have a face you wanted to see on TV.

This is basically what the EEG is about: It provides subsidies for all companies and individuals who produce electricity using renewable energy sources. Wind turbines or solar panels, for example. The  electricity companies are obligated to buy this energy and sell their electricity on the market. If the market-price for electricity falls below a certain threshold, the government will pay subsidies to the producers. These subsidies are financed via a levy.

But now, the government changed the way the whole thing worked. The reform they introduced a cap on yearly renewable energy sources that are granted government subsidies, and it introduced a tendering process to determine the amount of government support. For the Greens, this was unacceptable, and Özdemir was about to make that pretty clear.

“Minister Auernhammer,” he exclaimed, “is the wrecking ball of the energy revolution in Germany!”

But Özdemir still wanted to drag the Greens toward the center. Ideological arguments had no place here. If he wanted to win the political center, he had to give a speech for the political center.

“The Union claims that this reform will ease the energy revolution for the economy. They are 1 percent right and 99 percent wrong. The one percent of companies, the big consumers, are still exempt from paying the energy-levy, and the 99 percent aren’t. And now, you are introducing a tendering process and make it impossible for small and middle class investors and small and middle class companies to calculate their costs. You punish those who carry the economy on their shoulders. The Union is bad for the economy!”

January 29th, 2014: Foreign Minister Altmaier (CDU) has welcomed the resignation of Ukrainian Prime Minister Arsarow as an “important step towards the political compromise.”
January 31st, 2014: Minister for Economic Cooperation Thomas de Maizière (CDU) was criticized today for using inadequate language during a state visit in Namibia, marking the 110th anniversary of the Herero and Nama genocide committed by German colonial forces. De Maizière refused to call the killing of ten thousands Herero and Nama a ‘genocide’: “The Herero and Nama saw a terrible … terrible act committed by the German Empire that the Federal Republic is appalled of and distances itself from very strongly.”
February 3rd, 2014: SPD-General Secretary Natascha Kohnen called for stronger punishments for tax evasion. Tax evaders remain currently unpunished if they indict themselves voluntarily.
February 4th, 2014: Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan have met in Berlin. Erdogan demanded more international support regarding the rising number of Syrian refugees. He stated that while his government has spent at least 2.5 billion dollars for the reception of 700.000 Syrian refugees, he received only 130 million dollars from the United Nations. Merkel assured that the German government will try to garner support within the European Union to provide more money to Turkey. “Germany has taken 28.000 Syrian refugees since 2011. In a European perspective, this number is high,” she stated. “Compared to Turkey, it is pretty low. Turkey does a great job in handling the humanitarian crisis that follows the civil war in Syria.”
February 7th, 2014: In a leaked phone call, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has called to “f**k the EU.” Chancellor Merkel commented the statement as “absolutely unacceptable.” This incident further worsened the already charged relations between the US and Germany.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

February 9th, 2014: SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach has criticized Health Minister Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) for refusing to make the morning-after pill obtainable without prescription. Karen Lay (LINKE) joined the criticism by stating that Rüttgers refusal was “infantilizing all women in this country.”
February 12th, 2014: The opposition has criticized the government for proposing a pay increase of 10 percent for members of the Bundestag.
February 13th, 2014: EU-Parliamentary President Martin Schulz (SPD) has defended his speech in the Israeli Knesset. During his speech, he has urged the Israeli government to show more generosity towards Palestinians. Members of the party ‘Jewish Home’ have subsequently left parliament. “I have given a pro-Israel speech,’ Schulz stated, “but I am not obligated to support everything the Israeli government does.”

February 14th, 2014

Angela

Merkel was long enough in the game to understand that there were plenty of scandals a politician could survive. Anything related to child pornography was not one of them.

“He did what?” she asked after being briefed on the matter. She stood there in silence for several seconds, staring in disbelief at Helge Braun, the chief of her chancellery.

Then, she immediately grabbed her telephone and called Horst Seehofer. She could not do anything without his permission, as Seehofer had the say about who the CSU would put in the cabinet. But Merkel did not call to ask.

“Friedrich is out. I will tell him. He has no choice. You better think about a replacement.”

Seehofer sighted. “Yes, I know.”

“We have to act really quick here,” Merkel stated. That was a statement that you would not expect from Merkel.

BREAKING NEWS +++
VICE-CHANCELLOR FRIEDRICH UNDER PRESSURE AS NEW INFORMATION POURS IN CONCERNING CHILD-PORNOGRAPHY-SCANDAL

Source: Freud, Bundesinnenminister Hans-Peter Friedrich. CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia.

Vice-Chancellor and Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) is under pressure after the Hanoverian district attourney released new information accusing Friedrich of unlawful disclosure of secret information.

The information mentioned above is in relation to the new allegations concerning SPD-MP Sebastian Edathy, who is accused of having bought child pornography. Edathy has resigned on February 7th. Since then, the police has searched his apartment and his office in the Bundestag.

Yesterday, reports claimed that in October, Interior Minister Friedrich was informed about the investigation and had shared his knowledge with several members of the leadership of the SPD. By doing so, Friedrich has shared secret information. The Hanoverian district attorney’s office has announced that it will possibly indict the Vice-Chancellor as his actions were unlawful and could possibly have hindered the investigation.

Friedrich has stated that he plans to remain in office but is willing to resign if he is indicted.

Angela

“This is absolutely unacceptable and I think you know that,” Merkel said to her Vice-Chancellor.

“I already promised that I will resign if I am indicted.”

“You’re not gonna wait,” she told him. “You’re out.”

“I am what?”

“You’re out of the cabinet. You just lost your post. Seehofer approves. He wants you out, too. So you’re gonna submit your resignation to the Federal President immediately or I will.” The Chancellor had the rarely used power to oust a minister without their approval, and Friedrich knew, that Merkel was not afraid to use that power. She already did in the past.

“I wanted to be generous with our political opponent,” he explained. “Because I believe in a fair game.”

“Well, the next time you want to be generous to your political opponents, write a god-damned post card for their birthdays like everyone else does!”

February 14th, 2014: Vice-Chancellor Friedrich (CSU) has announced his immediate resignation. Economy Minister Hans Michelbach (CSU) was commissioned to lead the Interior Ministry until a successor is appointed. Friedrich thanked Merkel and Seehofer for their support and stated: “I’ll be back.”
February 16th, 2014: Former MP Sebastian Edathy (SPD) has denied any accused wrongdoings.
February 17th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer announced that Angela Merkel will asked the Federal President to appoint Markus Söder as Vice-Chancellor and Federal Minister of the Interior today.
BREAKING NEWS +++
MARKUS SÖDER IS OUR NEW VICE-CHANCELLOR

Source: Foto: Michael Lucan, Lizenz: CC-BY-SA 3.0 de

In the presence of Chancellor Merkel and outgoing minister Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU), Federal President Gauck has appointed Markus Söder (CSU) as the new Federal Minister of the Interior and Vice-Chancellor of the Federal Republic.

The 47-year old has first held government office as Bavarian environment minister from 2008 to 2011. Since 2011, he has been Bavarian minister of finance. Söder is said to be a natural born political talent who has long held aspirations to become Bavarian prime minister. Some speculate that Seehofer is trying to strengthen his own position by sending Söder to Berlin.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

February 19th, 2014: Chancellor Merkel has stated that EU-leaders have agreed on imposing sanctions on the Ukrainian government, citing violent conflicts in the country between government and opposition.
February 20th, 2014: The Bundestag was in chaos today when a debate between the Greens and the LEFT on the issue of the protests in the Ukraine escalated. Sevim Dagdelen (LEFT), who was not present in the plenary session, criticized the Greens via Twitter for not having denounced fascist and antisemitic forced within the Ukrainian opposition. Several Green politicians urged the present LEFT-parliamentarians to comment on the tweet, which they refused. Bundestag-President Norbert Lammert called inappropriate to comment on a plenary session at which ones is not present.
February 22th, 2014: Amid violent protests, Ukrainian President Janukowitsch has fled the country. Police and security forces have reportedly sided with the opposition. The Ukrainian parliament subsequently removed Janukowitsch from office. Former Ukrainian prime minister and presidential candidate, Julia Tymoschenko, has been released from prison. Chancellor Merkel has reportedly congratulated her in a phone call.
February 26th, 2014: The Federal Constitutional Court has abolished the three percent threshold for the next European elections. Like in general and statewide elections, Germany had a 5 percent threshold for European elections until it was ruled unconstitutionally in 2011. Then, the Bundestag introduced a three percent threshold for European elections. The new ruling could potentially lead to many small parties winning seats in the next German delegation.
February 27th, 2014: Russia has stationed 2000 soldiers on the Crimea. The regional government, which denies the legality of the new Ukrainian government, has openly discussed a secession from the Ukraine.

Source: Elizabeth Arrott / VOA. Public Domain.

March 4th, 2014: Russian president Putin has called for the West to respect the sovereignty of the Crimean people. Russian Foreign Minister Lawrow has meanwhile denied that the soldiers on the Crimea are sent by the Russian government.

March 7th, 2014

Angela

She could hardly get any sleep. The last two weeks were a hassle. The EU-Leaders were up all day, all night, discussing the European reaction regarding the events on the Crimea. This is not how she had expected her third term to start.

She had a special relationship with Russia. The grew up in the socialist East and was fluent in Russian. When she and Putin met, they both spoke in each others native language. Did they like each other? Not in particular. Did they respect each other? Quite a lot. Putin had a lot of respect for Merkel, and Merkel respected Putin. It was natural for some EU members that Merkel should lead European crisis-containment efforts. But she wanted a mandate from all EU members. After she had taken the lead in the Euro crisis, she was concerned with Germany’s international image.

She could have never imagined that her biggest problem during this whole crisis would be Horst Seehofer.

She slowly shook her head when she watched his press conference. “We must not forget that Russia is a part of our joint European history, our joint European culture. We will not let the decision makers in Brussels dictate our foreign policy. Never must our diplomatic efforts turn into hostility. Thus, I will, as leader of the CSU, never approve of any sanctions towards our Russian friends.”

And that was it. That was the end of the European sanctions toward Russia. Without the approval of the CSU, Germany could not approve, and without German approval, it was over.

She called her vice-chancellor, Markus Söder. “Please tell Horst Seehofer that when he decides to mess with EU polics the next time, he better tells me in advance.”

[America Needs R'hllor]

Oh goddamn Seehofer. Bad move!

Also can you explain why exactly the CSU wants a road toll? Thanks!

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Oh goddamn Seehofer. Bad move!

Also can you explain why exactly the CSU wants a road toll? Thanks!

The road toll was by far the stupidest government policy the German government has pursued in recent years and it was rooted in the CSU's borderline xenophobia.

They developed the idea before the Bavarian elections in 2013, which happend right before the general election. Bavaria borders both Austria and Switzerland and is quite close to Italy. They claimed that if the Bavarian tourists have to pay a road toll in Austria, Switzerland, and Italy, then the Ausrian, the foreigners coming to Germany should also pay a road toll. But while road toll in Austria, Switzerland and Italy applies to both domestic and foreign vehicles, the CSU wanted a road toll that only foreigners should have to pay - no extra burden on the Germans. That's why everyone called it the Ausländermaut - the foreigner-toll.

It did, after all, not come into effect. Before it was sacked by the European Court of Justice in 2019, the German government waisted an enormous of money on this project. The road toll has waisted so much time and effort that we still don't know the financial damage this thing has caused us.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

March 7th, 2014: Many CDU-politicians lashed out at Horst Seehofer (CSU) for blocking European sanctions on Russia.
March 7th, 2014: The German government admitted that often European responsibilities regarding the reception of refugees are not respected. According to EU-law, states to not have to accept refugees if they have set foot in another EU-state before. However, Germany does not deport refugees to Greece due to inadequate living conditions for refugees in the EU-border state.
March 11th, 2014: The Crimean parliament has declared independence.
March 16th, 2014: The Crimea has in a referendum, with over 96 percent of the vote, agreed to join the Russian federation.
March 17th, 2014: CSU-Leader Horst Seehofer has called the Crimean referendum “illegitimate”, but stated: “If there was an internationally observed referendum with fair conditions, I think we should grant the Crimean people the chance to determine their own fate.”
March 20th , 2014: The crisis in Ukraine has lead to a schism in the opposition. The LEFT argues that SPD and Greens downplay the role of fascist forces in the new Ukrainian government. SPD and Greens counter that they support the Ukrainian government but denounce fascist parties.

March 22nd, 2014
Bernd

Source: Olaf Kosinsky/Skillshare.eu

This party is a god-damned disaster, Bernd thought. And I must be its leader.

The AfD’s party conference, its second within two months, was stuck in unnecessary debates about convention rules and arguments about statutes because, for some reason Bernd Lucke was not aware of, the lower places on the party lists were still highly competitive and everybody wanted to say something. But that only took valuable time.

Time was precious. Because this conference would be the conference where he should take the lead.

The AfD had three co-leaders: Bernd Lucke, Frauke Petry and Konrad Adam. Adam was a bland and old figure who was expected to disappear soon, Lucke and Petry were arch-enemies. Lucke was a liberal-conservative, Petry was a right-wing populist. The only way for the AfD to survive was to step in the void the FDP had deserted. The AfD must become the party of freedom. But Petry wanted to drag the party to the right. But Lucke had enough.

This conference, he raised to motion to abolish the co-leader concept. Then, he would run for leader immediately afterwards.

Not everyone was fond of this idea. In fact, it was highly controversial. Petry was against it. Adam was against it. Regional chapters of the party were against it. But Lucke was bound to fight for his motion, because he knew it was his only chance.

“We are the alternative – policy-wise, yes. But in order to be part of the political discourse, we must be seen as a serious party. And in order to be seen as a serious party, we must act like one. The only way in that direction is to stop this dangerous affiliation with extremist figures and to elect a leader who has the heart, the spirit and the competence to lead.”

And with 735 to 344, to motion passed. Not because everyone liked what Lucke had to say, but also because Petry came out in support of this motion and announced her candidacy.

“The AfD is a new force, a truly German party. We are not afraid to talk about the problems of this country. We are not afraid to call out Merkel for her effort to drag our country to the left. We need an alternative. We ARE the alternative.”

In the end, it might have been luck, it might have been name-recognition, it might have been the fact that the election were so damn near, but he won. By a hair.

He had the control. For now.
March 24th , 2014: The G7 have officially expelled the Russian Federation from the group.
March 29th, 2014: In the light of the crisis in Ukraine, Chancellor Merkel has visited Russian President Putin.
April 2nd, 2014: Due to forbidden price agreements, the federal cartel office has imposed fees of an accumulated amount of 230 Million Euros on several beer companies.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

So are people still interested in this?

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

So are people still interested in this?

This is one of my favorite timelines on this forum at the moment. It's one of the few non-American politics timelines on here and it's about a very interesting concept to me.

[Continential]

So are people still interested in this?

I can't wait for more!

[republicanbayer]

So are people still interested in this?

Yes! I absolutely love this timeline.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

That good to see. Uni is exhausting right now, so future updates might take some time, but I still plan to keep it going.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

April 5th, 2014: The CDU’s general secretary Peter Tauber has announced that the party will campaign on Merkel’s chancellorship and the theme of ‘stability’ for the European elections. SPD-general secretary Natascha Kohnen has ridiculed the CDU’s campaign and has called the CDU out for campaigning on Merkel, because “Merkel is not a candidate for the European parliament.”
April 11th, 2014: During a visit in Athens, Chancellor Merkel has payed tribute to the Greek government for their austerity policy. “Sometimes, it takes courage to do the right thing.” However, she also warned that the country should stay cautious regarding its financial future.

Source: Αντώνης Σαμαράς - Angela Merkel - Επίσκεψη στην Αθήνα, CC BY SA2.0 via Wikimedia

April 12th, 2014: Separatist riots have emerged in the Eastern provinces of the Ukraine.
April 15th, 2014: SPD Leader Rolf Mützenich has criticized Economy Minister Hans Michelbach (CSU) for German arms exports. “We are the third largest exporter of weapons in the world,” he stated. “We are producing a refugee crisis if we don’t stop these reckless deals!”
April 17th, 2014: Representatives from the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the EU have met for a crisis summit in Geneva. The negotiating parties have agreed to disarm the pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
April 21st, 2014: Vice-Chancellor Markus Söder has praised the Russia-policy of the Federal Government: “The policy of no-neutrality, but also no-blame has kept the door between Russia and the West open.” Gregor Gysi (LEFT) has criticized Söder’s statement by pointing out that there have recently again been shootings in Eastern Ukraine.
April 28th, 2014: Among party lines, the Bundestag has passed a new data-retention-law. The new law forces telecommunication providers to retain any data for the duration of twelve weeks in order to facilitate criminal investigations. Justice Minister Hermann Gröhe (CDU) has called the law an important mechanism criminal investigators. Katarina Barley (SPD) has called the bill “poorly constructed” and claimed: “This law will not withstand a constitutional complaint.”
April 29th, 2014: Russian troops have deserted the Russian-Ukrainian border area.

May 1st, 2014
Rolf

Rolf Mützenich was nervous. His first election during his SPD-leadership was barely four weeks away.

The last weeks were tough. First, there was the Edathy-scandal, which did not shed a good light on some SPD-politicians like Gabriel, Steinmeier, and most importantly, Edathy. But he was not involved in this, so he kept his distance.

Then, the crisis in the Ukraine broke out. Merkel immediately turned into crisis-management. It was hard for the SPD to stand out during a time in which Merkel, Putin, Obama dominated the news broadcasts. Nonetheless, Martin Schulz, the SPD’s candidate for the European election, was campaigning all over the place, and people liked him. And so did Mützenich.

He did not particularly like his general secretary, Natascha Kohnen, but he respected her eagerness and her intelligence.

“New polls coming out this morning,” she announced.

“How are they?” Mützenich asked.

“Well, we have the official polls, and then we have our internal polls. Let’s start off with the official ones.”

RECENT POLLING +++
UNION MAINTAINS CRISIS-BUMP, BUT NORMALIZATION STARTS TO HAPPEN

If the 19th Bundestag was elected today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ………  39% (+2%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……… 28% (-1%)
The LEFT (LINKE) ……… 9% (no change)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ……… 8% (no change)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……… 3% (no change)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ………  5% (+1%)


If you were able to vote for the chancellor directly, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)

Angela Merkel ………  60% (+15)
Rolf Mützenich ……… 33% (-7)

If the election for the European Parliament were held today, who would you vote for? (± compared to the previous poll)


Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) ……. 38% (-1%)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ……. 27% (-1%)
The LEFT (LINKE) …….. 9% (+1%)
Alliance ‘90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) …….. 8% (no change)
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ……... 3% (no change)
Alternative for Germany (AfD) …….. 6% (+1%)

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

I hope we can end up with a red-red-green coalition after this, probably won't happen though.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

May 1st, 2014
Rolf

“This is … I mean, it isn’t bad.” It really wasn’t. The SPD was humiliated with 20 percent in 2009. A plus of seven percent was not bad. But it was not a result an election in Germany could be won with.

“As I said, there is also internal polling,” Kohnen explained.

“So?”

“Well, we could hit thirty percent and bring the Union down to 35 within two weeks if everything plays out the right way.”

Thirty percent was utopian—at least, everyone had believed. Mützenich had a radical plan. If the result was good enough, he would be able to reveal it.

May 1st, 2014: On Labor day, the German trade union center has reinforced its call for a national minimum wage.
May 4th, 2014: The US-government has blamed the German government for blocking the EU-wide sanctions on Russia.
May 8th, 2014: Interior Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has announced that his ministry plans to expand the concept deportation custody for rejected asylum seekers. In some cases, rejected asylum seekers can be placed in prisons to ensure their deportation. Söder plans to make it easier for local law-enforcement to place rejected asylum seekers in deportation custody.
May 8th, 2014: The two top candidates for the presidency of the European commission, Martin Schulz (Germany, Socialists) and Jean Claude Juncker (Luxembourg, Conservatives) have faced off in a televised debate. While Schulz focused on the issue of consumer protection and climate change, Juncker stressed out his experience as a former head of a government. While European conservatives and socialists have declared Juncker and Schulz as their nominees for the upcoming election, the presidency of the commission is technically unanimously decided by the heads of the European governments.
May 14th, 2014: According to recent polling, Martin Schulz is more popular than Juncker in Germany. However, the European socialists are still projected to gain less seats than the European conservatives.
May 16th, 2014: More than 20.000 people have protested in Hamburg against the planned free trade agreement between the EU and the United States. Many Germans fear that European consumer protection standards could be circumvented by American products, for which consumer protection standards are lower in the United States.

Source: Bernd Schwabe via Wikimedia

May 18th, 2014: Interior Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has projected that in 2014 “at least 200.000 people” will seek asylum in Germany. "We cannot bear that enormous amount of people."
May 21st, 2014: The United Kingdom and the Netherlands have begun voting for the European Parliament. However, their election results will not be proclaimed until May 25th.
May 22nd, 2014: Three days before the European election, Federal President Joachim Gauck has urged the Germans to see the benefits of immigration to Germany.

May 25th, 2014
Angela

“Well,” she said, as she stared onto the screen, following the election results. “This is definitely not what I expected.”

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Results of the Election for the European Parliament in Germany
May 25th, 2014



Source: own work



Source: own work



Source: own work

Christian Conservative Union Parties (CDU/CSU) ~ 33.9% (-4.0%) ~ 32 Seats
CDU 25,7%; CSU 8,2% (Bavaria only)
Social Democratic Party (SPD) ~30.8% (+10.0%) ~ 31 Seats
Alliance 90/Greens (B’90/Grüne) ~ 8.9% (-3.2%) ~ 9 Seats
Free Democratic Party (FDP) ~ 2.5% (-8.5%) ~ 2 Seats
The Left (LINKE) ~ 8.5% (+1.0%) ~ 8 Seats
Alternative for Germany (AfD) ~ 7.9% (new) ~ 7 seats

Fringe Parties with one seat each:

Free Voters (regionalists) ~ 1.5%
Pirate Party (pirate movement) ~ 1.4%
Animal Protection Party – 1.2%
National Democratic Party (right-wing extremists) ~ 1.0%
Family Party (conservatism) ~ 0.7%
Ecologic Democratic Party (ecologic conservatism) ~ 0.6%
The PARTY (satire) ~ 0.6%
others 0,5%

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

Well that's not what I was expecting.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

May 26th, 2014

SPIEGEL ONLINE +++
WHAT HAPPENED

Source: Ralf Roletschek / roletschek.at

David McAllister smiled nonetheless. “The Union is still the strongest force and Jean Claude Juncker will be the next president of the European commission.” David McAllister was the CDU’s top candidate for yesterday’s election. The problem: Nobody really knows who he is, and now he has to justify the disappointing election result. Minus four percent – truly an uncomfortable fact, but  even more so that the weakening of the Union solely accounts for the bad performance of the CDU. They only received 25,7% compared to the CSU’s 8.2%. It is the worst election result for the CDU in a European election and the worst election result for the CDU on a federal level since 1949.

One’s conclusion regarding the position of Angela Merkel should now be very cautious. If the last legislative period has taught Germany anything, then that is that poor election results for the CDU cannot be translated into bad approval ratings for Merkel. In all 13 regional elections between 2009 and 2013, the CDU has lost ten. Germans then proceeded to re-elect Merkel with her best election result ever. But one can surely expect that several CDU-politicians will question the apparent dominance of the CSU on federal government policy – Julia Klöckner, the CDU’s deputy leader, already has. “The CDU must now look closely on how it can set its own accents in the government,” she stated. Several statements like this will probably be made in today’s committee meeting. The CSU, on the other hand, has had a very good night. They improved from 48% to nearly 52%, which translates to 8.2% nationally. It seems as if the CSU’s anti-immigrant, anti-Big-Brussels rhetoric has hit a nerve with Bavarian voters, and maybe it has hit a nerve with the CDU as well. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the prime minister of the Saarland, stated that the CDU is a “thoroughly pro-European party in the tradition of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. But yesterday’s result has shown that many people in Europe are disenfranchised with the way Brussels works, and I believe that we must respect that sentiment.” Hessian Prime Minister Volker Bouffier has urged the media not to over-interpret the election result. “The Germans know that the European parliament has a solely advisory role. When it comes to governance and responsibility, the trust is with the CDU and Angela Merkel.”

Source: Image: Olaf Kosinsky (kosinsky.eu), Licence: CC BY-SA 3.0-de

The SPD celebrated a victory that came to a surprise to everybody in and outside the party. “There’s life in the old dog yet!” Deputy Leader Andrea Nahles told journalists, smiling that familiar Nahles-smile. Both Martin Schulz and Rolf Mützenich were met with roaring applause from assembled party members. The former will probably not be the next president of the European commission. All in all, the European conservatives are stronger in the next parliament than the socialists. But Schulz has proven that he is a good fit for a national campaign. His vita speaks like few others for the social-democratic dream: Schulz has no high school diploma, no formal education, has fought a battle against alcoholism. He then turned to politics, taught himself seven languages, entered the European parliament in the nineties. In 2012, he was elected its president. This is, with all due objectivity, admirable.

Mützenich is the other winner. He lead the SPD above the 30-percent-mark and to its best election victory since 2005. With the CDU only taking 25% of the vote, the SPD was yesterday formally the largest strongest in Germany. “The oldest party in Germany is rejuvenated,” he stated. “We will take that energy to Berlin and use it to fight for a country everybody benefits from!” When Mützenich was elected as leader, he was unknown by the public. We know that people tend to have a favorable view of him. It is now his responsibility to translate this election victory to good poll numbers. But the election victory has granted him precious political capital, which he can use to steer the SPD in the direction he favors.

19 percent of European voters voted for right-wing populist parties. In the United Kingdom and in France, the UK Independence Party and the National Front became the strongest party, respectively.  It will be very interesting to observe the dynamic between the right-wing forces and the eurosceptic AfD, which entered the parliament which a very comfortable election result. AfD-Leader Bernd Lucke has denounced the right-wing parties and ruled out a cooperation with them. In the European parliament, Lucke aspires to join the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which is a eurosceptic offshoot of the conservative European People’s Party. The AfD’s admittance in the ECR could worsen the relationship between Chancellor Merkel and British Prime Minister David Comeron, whose Conservative Party is the leading member in the ECR. In order to assess the AfD’s work in the European parliament, one must closely observe the direction it will move in the coming years. Will it replace the FDP as the main liberal party in Germany, or will the right-wing forces take revenge on Bernd Lucke and oust him as leader of the party?

Prior the European election, the Federal Constitutional Court has abolished the three-percent threshold, which has allowed several smaller parties to enter the European parliament. It probably came as a surprise to many that this decision secured the FDP’s presence in the next parliament. Yesterday’s result was the worst election result the FDP has received on a federal level. While it is too soon to assert the death of the FDP as a relevant party in Germany—it still has a functioning party organization that could make a comeback possible and it is still represented in several state parliaments—it is safe to say that as of right now, the FDP has virtually no influence in federal politics. In late summer and early autumn, the FDP must prove its competitiveness in three crucial Eastern German state elections. In Brandenburg and Thuringa, the FDP is represented in the state parliament as an opposition party. In Saxony, the FDP is part of the state government. FDP-Leader Christian Lindner, who was by some in the party hailed as the savior of the humiliated FDP, will face tough questions about his leadership if the FDP fails to enter these state parliaments.

The Greens exceeded their election result of 2013, but lost three percent in comparison to 2009. The new leadership team, Özdemir/Peters, has not been able to appropriately create the publicity needed to get over the 10-percent mark nationally. Unfortunately for the Greens, the next state elections are unlikely to produce momentum, as Alliance90/Greens is traditionally weak in Eastern Germany. They barely made it in the state parliaments in 2009. Dropping out of these parliaments is a real possibility and a real thread for Özdemir/Peters, who need to get into the national conversation very soon. This is very unlikely in a time in which polarization between the Union and the SPD seems to grow.

The LEFT was largely unnoticed. They gained one percent, which is more a normalization than an exiting event. It seems as if the corridor for the LEFT is between 7 and 11 percent. While their strength is declining in the East, it is normalizing in the West. It will be very interesting to observe the behavior of the LEFT in the light of the possible leftward-drift of the SPD. In the upcoming state elections, the LEFT must prove that its historical strength in the East still exists. At least Thuringa seems promising: the LEFT’s top candidate, Bodo Ramelow, actively campaigns on becoming the first LEFT prime minister in a German state.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What did you use to make those charts?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

What did you use to make those charts?

I used excel to create the bars with the right proportions and then I copied the graph into photoshop and colored it appropriately. The visual execution is inspired by the way German election results are presented on German TV.