Rate Kansas Republican Primary

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rate the primary in KS between Kobach and Marshall. The results of this primary will have great impact on how competative KS senate will be in 2020.

[Canis]

Lean Marshall Kobach could upset though

[SnowLabrador]

Lean Marshall Kobach could upset though

[Arizona Iced Tea]

When is this primary?

[UWS]

When is this primary?

August 4

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas,_2020

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Tossup

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Kobach, regardless KS is changing and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

[The Mamdani Virus]

Lean Kobach

[Landslide Lyndon]

The new guy that got in dumped two million of his own money. That might throw a wrench, especially if Kobach and Marshall tear down each other.

[JMT]

I think McConnell will convince Trump to endorse Roger Marshall in an effort to stop Kobach, and perhaps Susan Wagle will drop out in order to help that effort. I think Marshall narrowly wins.

[Pollster]

The new guy that got in dumped two million of his own money. That might throw a wrench, especially if Kobach and Marshall tear down each other.

Lindstrom also hired Jeff Roe, which is a huge get for this region. Roe is the only GOP consultant working today who genuinely scares me. He's definitely a candidate to watch here.

As for Kobach and Marshall, I'm this close to putting my own money towards a poll to show this forum how strong Kobach is with the Kansas GOP base, and how even if Marshall somehow won he wouldn't immediately put this race away.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tossup. Marshall's probably slightly favored, but this is the GOP we are talking about. Heyve nominated O'Donnell, Mourdock, Akin, Arrington, Roy Moore, etc. I wouldn't surprised if Kobach wins.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It all depends on if Trump sits this one out or not. Marshall’s fundraising has been poor, otherwise I’d have him as the slight favorite.

Kobach benefits a lot from being the one with the TRUE Believer Base of Ignorance, and the clown car definitely works to his advantage.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Kind of off topic, but if Kobach IS NOT THE NOMINEE would this Senate race be Safe R?

[Roll Roons]

Kind of off topic, but if Kobach IS NOT THE NOMINEE would this Senate race be Safe R?

Most likely, though it could be within single digits on a really good night for Democrats.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kind of off topic, but if Kobach IS NOT THE NOMINEE would this Senate race be Safe R?

I believe so.

[Frenchrepublican]

It all depends on if Trump sits this one out or not. Marshall’s fundraising has been poor, otherwise I’d have him as the slight favorite.

Kobach benefits a lot from being the one with the TRUE Believer Base of Ignorance, and the clown car definitely works to his advantage.

Yeah, that's the major problem for those who oppose Kobach

[windjammer]

I don't buy Marshall being a favorite to win the primary. And even if he does, he's not some kind of political juggernaut.

[VPH]

Lean Kobach. Kobach is a bad campaigner, but he's by far the Trumpiest and he's very well known across the state. He has a relatively high floor, and there are more credible anti-Kobach opponents than in the Gubernatorial race.

Susan Wagle has a lot of name recognition in Wichita. Hamilton and Lindstrom are known around KC and obviously Roger Marshall dominates out west. In 2018, you had Barnett (from Emporia) who was super moderate and picked his wife as Lt. Gov. and Ken Selzer, the insurance commissioner nobody really knew.

[HarrisonL]

I feel like Kobach will upset.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Considering Kobach barely won his primary in 2018 and then proceeded to blow a winnable race for Republicans, I’ll be #bold and say Marshall is favored.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kind of off topic, but if Kobach IS NOT THE NOMINEE would this Senate race be Safe R?

Yes, everyone else wins by 15 plus points. Anyways, I think this primary is Lean Marshall.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm now starting to lean towards Kobach as many moderate Rs after Fritzpatrick almost lost, and Rigglemen lost. However, even if it's Kobach, this race is still Lean R. Most Trump voters don't care about how bad Kobach is.

[Roll Roons]

I'm now starting to lean towards Kobach as many moderate Rs after Fritzpatrick almost lost, and Rigglemen lost. However, even if it's Kobach, this race is still Lean R. Most Trump voters don't care about how bad Kobach is.

Fitzpatrick actually ended up getting around 63%. Slightly lower than expected, but that's definitely not "almost losing". And Riggleman didn't lose a primary. He lost at a fundamentally undemocratic convention, where his fate was decided by a couple thousand delegates (in a district of over 700K) who tend to be far more purist than even the primary electorate as a whole. Those really should be done away with, except maybe for specials. Bear in mind that primary voters in northwest Iowa, which is much more similar to Kansas than Bucks County or Southside Virginia, did end up rejecting the crazy guy.

Kobach also managed to lose a lot of Trump voters in 2018, so clearly they do care to some extent. He could still win, but I think the primary is tilt Marshall for now.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe Kobach.

He's just more representative of the Republican Party as a whole, and I think Trump is going to come off the bench and endorse him before primary day.