NC (R)(Harper Polling) - Trump +7

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Biden - 42
Trump - 49

Trump approval - 52%

500 LV, +/- 4.4%, conducted 4/5-4/7
https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/headed-status-quo-election/

[wbrocks67]

I think you read it wrong, it has Trump +7, which is equally as ridiculous of a margin. It's clear this oversampled Rs though, Trump's approval being 52% and his administrations approval being 57% are also ridiculous

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I think you read it wrong, it has Trump +7, which is equally as ridiculous of a margin

Oh, 538 had entered it as Biden +7.

[libertpaulian]

Uh, that's backwards.  Trump is the one with 49%.

Also, Cooper is leading Forest 50%-33%!

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Uh, that's backwards.  Trump is the one with 49%.

Also, Cooper is leading Forest 50%-33%!

It's fixed. 538 had it backwards.

[AGA]

North Carolina's D trend is overstated. The South likes Trump. Biden's path of least resistance has always been through PA/MI/WI and maybe AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

North Carolina's D trend is overstated. The South likes Trump. Biden's path of least resistance has always been through PA/MI/WI and maybe AZ.

It has to do with Cunningham's candidacy as well. Harrison, Bollier and Bullock are polling much better than Cunningham. I have stated this many times that dont assume that Cooper will bring Cunningham over the finish line, he isnt that popular and known like Harrison

[Lisa's voting Biden]

North Carolina's D trend is overstated. The South likes Trump. Biden's path of least resistance has always been through PA/MI/WI and maybe AZ.

It has to do with Cunningham's candidacy as well. Harrison, Bollier and Bullock are polling much better than Cunningham.

Literal fake news

[Bidenworth2020]

Isn't this a republican pollster? And shouldn't it have an R in the title as a result?

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Isn't this a republican pollster? And shouldn't it have an R in the title as a result?

I didn't think so but as it seems to have been polled especially for Civitas I've marked it as R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't even need NC anyways

[Podgy the Bear]

All of the above comments are correct.

After all is said and done, Trump is likely to pull it out in NC.  The state is not going to turn D in the speed that GA is moving.  It looks to be a hybrid of GA and FL.  That is, there are high education people and/or ethnic populations into the metropolitan areas.  But there are substantial retirement populations moving into the NC mountain regions (in fact, many from metro Atlanta). 

It will be difficult for Biden to win, but it looks like Cooper is in very good shape (and Tillis looks to be in some trouble).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Dems recruited Bullock, Dems were nervous about Cunningham's chances in the NC Senate. Tillis isnt Burr

[President Johnson]

Ridiculous internal poll. Biden may not win North Carolina, but the state will be within 2-3% either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ridiculous internal poll. Biden may not win North Carolina, but the state will be within 2-3% either way.

Polls have indicated Cunningham is an inferior candidate to Bullock, that's why Dems recruited Bullock to help win the Senate

[Tender Branson]

The daily Microsoft / MSN poll shows Biden ahead 51-40 in NC today.

[Devils30]

If 49% are conservative and only 24% are moderate, this is the result you would expect

[wbrocks67]

If 49% are conservative and only 24% are moderate, this is the result you would expect

omg is that the crosstab here? junk this immediately

[Woody]

Wow. Imagine if Trump got Bush 04' numbers here.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah, there's no way Trump is winning here by high-single digits while Cooper is winning by high-double digits.

This isn't the 70s, 80s, and 90s anymore in which GOPers win by high margins federally while Dems win statewide and locally.

[Brittain33]

Wow. Imagine if Trump got Bush 04' numbers here.

He’s heading toward Bush ‘92 numbers.

[Skill and Chance]

This does make you wonder if the last decade of Dem effort in NC should have been directed elsewhere.    They did manage to have a say in redistricting in a roundabout way, though, so I guess it wasn't a total waste?  On the other hand, something tells me Dems would have a lot of power in GA by now if they had put the same investment into it during 2008-2018.

[ProudModerate2]

Yes, I agree with others here that say that trump could be leading but not by this high.

[Xing]

Too rosy for Trump, but I do think he’s favored in NC.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This does make you wonder if the last decade of Dem effort in NC should have been directed elsewhere.    They did manage to have a say in redistricting in a roundabout way, though, so I guess it wasn't a total waste?  On the other hand, something tells me Dems would have a lot of power in GA by now if they had put the same investment into it during 2008-2018.

This state is definitely one of the biggest c***teases for Democrats. Obama's surprise win here in 2008 (by the skin of his teeth, by the way) really made Democrats have unrealistic expectations for this state. I think effort and resources are better spent in Arizona, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. I'll make exceptions for the gubernatorial and senate races though. Those at least look somewhat more competitive for whatever reason, and defeating Tillis is necessary for Democrats to take back the Senate, it's worth a shot. Democrats will also almost certainly gain a minimum of two House seats here with the new map too. So there is some reason to contest this state still, just not at the presidential level, as I see it.

Now, as bearish as I am about Democratic chances in this state at that level, I don't see Trump winning here by more than his 2016 margin, as with most states. There are still trends here that can offset him gaining anywhere. But this state is a long way from being the next Virginia overall.