PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

We know who the undecideds are. "Good" for Bollier but not overall good.

The undecideds looked bad for Kelly in 2018 too and she ended up winning by 5% anyway

This race seems like a genuine tossup if Kobach is the nominee. We need some outside group to paint Roger Marshall as a closet liberal ASAP before the primary

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

Ignoring their write-ups, they are a pretty accurate pollster

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Things would have to go very bad for Trump to have this seat going democrat. Personally, I don't think Koback would underperform that much the other republican guy.

Kobach lost by 5% in 2018 when Republicans won the House vote in Kansas by 10%. He’s definitely that bad

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Coronovirus has made every incumbent Dem Gov very popular, that's why Bullock, Cunningham and Bollier have a chance due to fact Bullock, Cooper and Kelly are all popular. Likewise,  in 2022, it will be a status quo election,  since most of Govs are from safe Dem states anyways. KS is trending Dem, and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

Where do people get this idea of Iowa as some newly emergent right-wing state? Iowa voted for Obama twice, their GOP incumbent governor was reduced to a 3% victory (down from the '14 election win by 22% achieved by the GOP), and the GOP fell 7% to 46.5% in the US House elections in the state (dropping from 3/4 House seats to 1/4). Iowa is an incredibly elastic state; we will see that again in November.

I wish the Iowa is "incredibly elastic" meme would just go away. This state has only voted for a Democrat for a high level office of PRES/SEN/GOV once in the past 12 years (the same that Kansas has, btw, for those of you keeping track at home). Every other race except Gov-2018 has been a massive Republican blowout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sebelius won in 2002 and 2006 too, as Gov

Terrorists attacked NYC and Sebelius won KS Gov as result Katrina hit cornfields of Dodge City and Sebelius beat Barnet