PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach (user search)
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  PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach  (Read 3860 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


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« on: April 15, 2020, 02:13:58 PM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2020, 02:09:59 AM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

Ignoring their write-ups, they are a pretty accurate pollster

The polls they do for themselves are not too bad but the polls they do for progressive clients are just trash
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2020, 02:59:50 PM »

Even if Democrats lose this race, Republican overconfidence about Senate races in "red" states in general (MT, KS, AK, TX, etc.) is unsurprising but really, really dumb. The fact that this is the second poll to show Bollier polling as well in a Senate race as Laura Kelly was in "muh non-federal/state-level" race should be a warning sign, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014. There will be no "51R/49D" majority if Republicans have to count on "polarization" and "Trump's coattails" to bail them out in states like KS and MT and AK and who-knows-where, and I don’t see Trump winning KS or MT by even close to 20 percentage points again.

All of this also pokes holes in the "KS was only trending Democratic because Brownback" narrative.


PPP poll done for a progressive group =/= not a reliable data, to say the least

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2020, 03:10:48 PM »

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.

Uh, that’s very debatable, so let’s just agree to disagree here.
Yeah, it's better.

But just as a friendly reminder, the PPP MT poll (not a big fan of PPP but there is no other data) had Daines doing ''only'' eight points worse than Trump.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2020, 04:26:23 AM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

They're actually one of the better ones.  Shook Nate says they only favor Dems by 0.3% on average.  There are a lot of polls being posted around these parts with way worse of a reputation and much more abysmal stats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

lol PPP favors Dems by 0.3% on average and gets 80% of the races called correctly.

Fox News favors Republicans by 0.4% on average but only predicts the winner 72% of the time (which still isn't all that bad).

So either you're uninformed or you just don't like the news they're delivering...

Zogby has called right 78% of the races they polled, does it mean they're a good pollster ? No, at least according to most opinions.
Also it would be interesting to know the period over which Nate Silver has analyzed the concerned polls, because before 2013 PPP polls were pretty good, it's over the past six years they have become a joke, so if a large number of polls which are in his database are from before 2013, obviously their record will look better.
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