PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Democrats lose this race, Republican overconfidence about Senate races in "red" states in general (MT, KS, AK, TX, etc.) is unsurprising but really, really dumb. The fact that this is the second poll to show Bollier polling as well in a Senate race as Laura Kelly was in "muh non-federal/state-level" race should be a warning sign, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014. There will be no "51R/49D" majority if Republicans have to count on "polarization" and "Trump's coattails" to bail them out in states like KS and MT and AK and who-knows-where, and I don’t see Trump winning KS or MT by even close to 20 percentage points again.

All of this also pokes holes in the "KS was only trending Democratic because Brownback" narrative.

[MT Treasurer]

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.

Uh, that’s very debatable, so let’s just agree to disagree here.