PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:58:38 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: PPP (KS) - Bollier +2 vs. Kobach  (Read 3858 times)
UWS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,220


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 16, 2020, 09:37:29 PM »

Marshall only raised like $365k in Q1, not much more than Kobach. Bollier is literally raising nearly $2 million more than her opponents. I wouldn't be so sure Marshall has it in the bag either.

Ted Cruz had much less campaign money than Beto O'Rourke and he still won.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 16, 2020, 10:42:15 PM »

Welcome to the Sunbelt Stack Secular Socialist Bollier.
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,006
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2020, 08:58:46 AM »

God doesn't love us enough for this to be true.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 18, 2020, 01:46:40 PM »

Even if Democrats lose this race, Republican overconfidence about Senate races in "red" states in general (MT, KS, AK, TX, etc.) is unsurprising but really, really dumb. The fact that this is the second poll to show Bollier polling as well in a Senate race as Laura Kelly was in "muh non-federal/state-level" race should be a warning sign, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014. There will be no "51R/49D" majority if Republicans have to count on "polarization" and "Trump's coattails" to bail them out in states like KS and MT and AK and who-knows-where, and I don’t see Trump winning KS or MT by even close to 20 percentage points again.

All of this also pokes holes in the "KS was only trending Democratic because Brownback" narrative.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 18, 2020, 02:59:50 PM »

Even if Democrats lose this race, Republican overconfidence about Senate races in "red" states in general (MT, KS, AK, TX, etc.) is unsurprising but really, really dumb. The fact that this is the second poll to show Bollier polling as well in a Senate race as Laura Kelly was in "muh non-federal/state-level" race should be a warning sign, especially when we’re talking about a state which had a competitive Senate race in 2014. There will be no "51R/49D" majority if Republicans have to count on "polarization" and "Trump's coattails" to bail them out in states like KS and MT and AK and who-knows-where, and I don’t see Trump winning KS or MT by even close to 20 percentage points again.

All of this also pokes holes in the "KS was only trending Democratic because Brownback" narrative.


PPP poll done for a progressive group =/= not a reliable data, to say the least

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 18, 2020, 03:02:12 PM »

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.

Uh, that’s very debatable, so let’s just agree to disagree here.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: April 18, 2020, 03:10:48 PM »

Also, neither Daines nor the republican candidate in KS (hope it will be Marshall) need Trump to win by 20 points, they just need him to win their home state by double digits.

Uh, that’s very debatable, so let’s just agree to disagree here.
Yeah, it's better.

But just as a friendly reminder, the PPP MT poll (not a big fan of PPP but there is no other data) had Daines doing ''only'' eight points worse than Trump.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: April 18, 2020, 03:13:36 PM »

Things would have to go very bad for Trump to have this seat going democrat. Personally, I don't think Koback would underperform that much the other republican guy.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: April 18, 2020, 03:26:11 PM »

Things would have to go very bad for Trump to have this seat going democrat. Personally, I don't think Koback would underperform that much the other republican guy.

Things already have gone bad for Trump, the deaths of many elderly at nursing homes
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: April 19, 2020, 02:45:36 PM »

Things would have to go very bad for Trump to have this seat going democrat. Personally, I don't think Koback would underperform that much the other republican guy.

Kobach lost by 5% in 2018 when Republicans won the House vote in Kansas by 10%. He’s definitely that bad
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: April 19, 2020, 03:06:47 PM »

KS is trending opposite of IA, it's the Dem version of IA, now.
Logged
Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
jtsmd2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 569
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -7.22

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: April 23, 2020, 04:10:51 PM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

They're actually one of the better ones.  Shook Nate says they only favor Dems by 0.3% on average.  There are a lot of polls being posted around these parts with way worse of a reputation and much more abysmal stats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

lol PPP favors Dems by 0.3% on average and gets 80% of the races called correctly.

Fox News favors Republicans by 0.4% on average but only predicts the winner 72% of the time (which still isn't all that bad).

So either you're uninformed or you just don't like the news they're delivering...
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: April 24, 2020, 01:36:51 AM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

They're actually one of the better ones.  Shook Nate says they only favor Dems by 0.3% on average.  There are a lot of polls being posted around these parts with way worse of a reputation and much more abysmal stats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

lol PPP favors Dems by 0.3% on average and gets 80% of the races called correctly.

Fox News favors Republicans by 0.4% on average but only predicts the winner 72% of the time (which still isn't all that bad).

So either you're uninformed or you just don't like the news they're delivering...


Little of column A, little of column B.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: April 24, 2020, 04:26:23 AM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

They're actually one of the better ones.  Shook Nate says they only favor Dems by 0.3% on average.  There are a lot of polls being posted around these parts with way worse of a reputation and much more abysmal stats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

lol PPP favors Dems by 0.3% on average and gets 80% of the races called correctly.

Fox News favors Republicans by 0.4% on average but only predicts the winner 72% of the time (which still isn't all that bad).

So either you're uninformed or you just don't like the news they're delivering...

Zogby has called right 78% of the races they polled, does it mean they're a good pollster ? No, at least according to most opinions.
Also it would be interesting to know the period over which Nate Silver has analyzed the concerned polls, because before 2013 PPP polls were pretty good, it's over the past six years they have become a joke, so if a large number of polls which are in his database are from before 2013, obviously their record will look better.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: April 24, 2020, 04:37:40 PM »

Unsure why they are excluding Marshall, who has been close in polling and leads significantly in fundraising. Trying to create a stronger narrative that this is a winnable seat, I suppose, by making it appear that Kobach is the inevitable GOP nominee.

Because PPP is a horrible pollster which cares more about trolling republicans than delivering reliable datas.

They're actually one of the better ones.  Shook Nate says they only favor Dems by 0.3% on average.  There are a lot of polls being posted around these parts with way worse of a reputation and much more abysmal stats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

lol PPP favors Dems by 0.3% on average and gets 80% of the races called correctly.

Fox News favors Republicans by 0.4% on average but only predicts the winner 72% of the time (which still isn't all that bad).

So either you're uninformed or you just don't like the news they're delivering...

Zogby has called right 78% of the races they polled, does it mean they're a good pollster ? No, at least according to most opinions.
Also it would be interesting to know the period over which Nate Silver has analyzed the concerned polls, because before 2013 PPP polls were pretty good, it's over the past six years they have become a joke, so if a large number of polls which are in his database are from before 2013, obviously their record will look better.

Dems are gonna win AZ, CO, ME and NC to make up for  AL and Warren will be the Veep in a tie breaking Senate
Logged
JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,956
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2020, 12:20:17 AM »

Fun fact: the last time Kansas had, simultaneously, a Democratic Governor and Senator was in 1938. Senator George McGill (D) was elected to the Senate in 1930, one year into the Great Depression; he was the first, and last, Democratic Senator to represent the state since 1918.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2020, 03:41:42 AM »

Coronovirus has made every incumbent Dem Gov very popular, that's why Bullock, Cunningham and Bollier have a chance due to fact Bullock, Cooper and Kelly are all popular. Likewise,  in 2022, it will be a status quo election,  since most of Govs are from safe Dem states anyways. KS is trending Dem, and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

Logged
JA
Jacobin American
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,956
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2020, 10:23:22 AM »

Coronovirus has made every incumbent Dem Gov very popular, that's why Bullock, Cunningham and Bollier have a chance due to fact Bullock, Cooper and Kelly are all popular. Likewise,  in 2022, it will be a status quo election,  since most of Govs are from safe Dem states anyways. KS is trending Dem, and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

Where do people get this idea of Iowa as some newly emergent right-wing state? Iowa voted for Obama twice, their GOP incumbent governor was reduced to a 3% victory (down from the '14 election win by 22% achieved by the GOP), and the GOP fell 7% to 46.5% in the US House elections in the state (dropping from 3/4 House seats to 1/4). Iowa is an incredibly elastic state; we will see that again in November.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: April 25, 2020, 10:58:46 AM »

Coronovirus has made every incumbent Dem Gov very popular, that's why Bullock, Cunningham and Bollier have a chance due to fact Bullock, Cooper and Kelly are all popular. Likewise,  in 2022, it will be a status quo election,  since most of Govs are from safe Dem states anyways. KS is trending Dem, and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

Where do people get this idea of Iowa as some newly emergent right-wing state? Iowa voted for Obama twice, their GOP incumbent governor was reduced to a 3% victory (down from the '14 election win by 22% achieved by the GOP), and the GOP fell 7% to 46.5% in the US House elections in the state (dropping from 3/4 House seats to 1/4). Iowa is an incredibly elastic state; we will see that again in November.

It's rural, very white and swung HARD to Trump, even if Hillary was a bad fit. Democrats only won the House vote in 2018 because Steve King far underperformed his district's partisanship. Rod Blum was triaged and expected to lose big, but only ended up losing by 5.

And gubernatorial races aren't perfect indicators. Charlie Baker won by 2 points in 2014 and 33 in 2018.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: April 25, 2020, 02:00:47 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2020, 02:10:57 PM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

Coronovirus has made every incumbent Dem Gov very popular, that's why Bullock, Cunningham and Bollier have a chance due to fact Bullock, Cooper and Kelly are all popular. Likewise,  in 2022, it will be a status quo election,  since most of Govs are from safe Dem states anyways. KS is trending Dem, and becoming what IA used to be to Dems

Where do people get this idea of Iowa as some newly emergent right-wing state? Iowa voted for Obama twice, their GOP incumbent governor was reduced to a 3% victory (down from the '14 election win by 22% achieved by the GOP), and the GOP fell 7% to 46.5% in the US House elections in the state (dropping from 3/4 House seats to 1/4). Iowa is an incredibly elastic state; we will see that again in November.

I wish the Iowa is "incredibly elastic" meme would just go away. This state has only voted for a Democrat for a high level office of PRES/SEN/GOV once in the past 12 years (the same that Kansas has, btw, for those of you keeping track at home). Every other race except Gov-2018 has been a massive Republican blowout.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2020, 02:09:54 PM »

Sebelius won in 2002 and 2006 too, as Gov
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: April 25, 2020, 02:50:44 PM »

Sebelius won in 2002 and 2006 too, as Gov

Terrorists attacked NYC and Sebelius won KS Gov as result Katrina hit cornfields of Dodge City and Sebelius beat Barnet
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: April 25, 2020, 05:12:28 PM »

Why is this turning into an argument about Iowa, lol. Do people not realize to ignore OC?

Bollier, also, will win.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,124
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: April 25, 2020, 05:14:39 PM »

Sebelius won in 2002 and 2006 too, as Gov

Terrorists attacked NYC and Sebelius won KS Gov as result Katrina hit cornfields of Dodge City and Sebelius beat Barnet
can you please teach me Olakawandese?
Also: I'd like to redouble TM on this, and his view of PPP in general at least how they behave in a Kansan context.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,762
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: April 25, 2020, 05:25:24 PM »

Why is this turning into an argument about Iowa, lol. Do people not realize to ignore OC?

Bollier, also, will win.

Why do you want me on ignore?
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.073 seconds with 12 queries.