Why Florida is trending D

[ProgressiveModerate]

After the 2018 midterms, everyone seems to think that FL has become much more favorable to the Republicans because a guy who didn't campaign barely lost to a strong GOP canidate, and a controversial canidate for governor also lost to a relatively popular incumebnt. To me, this doesn't really prove much other than the fact that FL is a swing state, and that if Nelson had run even a slightly better campaign he could've won, and that his ceiling was actually relatively high, it's just that he was dependent upon Gillum winning the governors race, and Scott was probably on eof the stronger GOP canidates. Also, despite Hillary losing in 2016, she only lost FL by 1.2 points, which is only 0.4 points more than WI, which pretty much everyone agrees is a tossup state that could go either way. Also, just demographically in FL, older people are dying, and these more conservative Cubans who vote R because they don't want to have anything that even reminds them of socialism are dying off and the new generation is much more D friendly. I feel like people are saying that FL will trend R just because of the poor midterm results from 2018, but in the long term, I expect it to remain a swing state for a while, with both parties having their fair share of good and poorer performances in the states

[Tekken_Guy]

There are two popular theories

1. Retirees are moving into the state at a rapid speed. Sumter County turned out at 96% of 2016 levels in 2018, while the state only turned out at 86%. This disparity may be related to population growth as much as strong turnout. And Scott actually improved on Clinton by a bit here.
2. Cubans have swung back to the GOP in 2018. Clinton won Miami-Dade by 29%, but  Nelson and Gillum won it by just 21%. Turnout was still 81% of 2016 levels in 2018, so it’s probably swing voters more than bad turnout.

[Orwell]

There are two popular theories

1. Retirees are moving into the state at a rapid speed. Sumter County turned out at 96% of 2016 levels in 2018, while the state only turned out at 86%. This disparity may be related to population growth as much as strong turnout. And Scott actually improved on Clinton by a bit here.
2. Cubans have swung back to the GOP in 2018. Clinton won Miami-Dade by 29%, but  Nelson and Gillum won it by just 21%. Turnout was still 81% of 2016 levels in 2018, so it’s probably swing voters more than bad turnout.

I don't see the point of the second theory, tracking through the years show younger Cubans are about as Liberal if not a little less than other Hispanic groups.

[Tekken_Guy]

There are two popular theories

1. Retirees are moving into the state at a rapid speed. Sumter County turned out at 96% of 2016 levels in 2018, while the state only turned out at 86%. This disparity may be related to population growth as much as strong turnout. And Scott actually improved on Clinton by a bit here.
2. Cubans have swung back to the GOP in 2018. Clinton won Miami-Dade by 29%, but  Nelson and Gillum won it by just 21%. Turnout was still 81% of 2016 levels in 2018, so it’s probably swing voters more than bad turnout.

I don't see the point of the second theory, tracking through the years show younger Cubans are about as Liberal if not a little less than other Hispanic groups.

I meant the older Cubans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL isn't trending D, AZ is the new VA

[Non Swing Voter]

People have been looking for trendiness in Florida for the past 20 years but there are way too many cross trends in Florida canceling each other out. 

It has characteristics that are favorable to Republicans: a cohesive white southern base.  lower educated.  large cuban population + other hispanics who are anti-socialist.  large older population.

It also has characteristics that are favorable to Democrats: it's a very urban state with lots of service jobs.  it has a large black population.  It has a rising Puerto Rican population.  The traditional swing areas in central Florida (Tampa to Orlando) appear to be trending slightly democratic.

Because there are an influx of old people and older people tend to vote republican you could argue it's trending republican.  But you could also argue that Puerto Ricans, particularly in central Florida, are pushing the state democratic.   

These cross currents seem to consistently cancel it out but the state tends to be a point or two to the right of the country, which is still extremely competitive given that democrats usually win the popular vote. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact since 2004, the Sunbelt at the end of Bush W admin has been moving away from Rs, due to immigrants and increasing income inequality