Most "fickle" state?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 13, 2025, 06:23:04 PM
News: Election Calculator 3.0 with county/house maps is now live. For more info, click here

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Most "fickle" state?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Most "fickle" state?  (Read 2132 times)
iceman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,618
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 14, 2020, 11:46:21 AM »

Which US state do you think is the most fickle? Fickle in the sense that it frequently change preferences for the parties of their elected statewide officials?

One state that I can think of is North Carolina, it frequently changes party with it's governors recently. One of the senate seats also has a pattern of throwing out incumbents.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2020, 12:02:34 PM »

New Hampshire for sure. Quite possibly the swingiest state in the country.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,396
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2020, 01:06:30 PM »

Maine - "Oh we'll always vote for Democrats for president, but tee hee, let's give one of our four electoral votes to Trump because he won the northern part of the state. Also, let's have one Republican senator and one independent-but-basically-Democratic senator who both always win in landslides lol. Oh and here's Paul LePage cuz black people are totally, like, rapists, lmao."
Logged
Chief Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,964
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2020, 01:17:40 PM »

     Maine is a very independent-minded state, and moderate enough to show it in voting. Vermont and Alaska are too, but Vermont is too liberal and Alaska too conservative to really show it as clearly.
Logged
Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 98,483
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2020, 02:00:42 PM »

PA, this is the most fickle state. The state voted for Trump in 2016 and it voted D in 2012, 2014 and 2018 based on Bob Casey Jr and Tom Wolf. Now, it's back to a tossup again and is in play for Trump to win it, again. But, if PA votes to right, then AZ and ME2 will be the swing
Logged
Voice of low info America
Santander
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,426
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 4.52, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2020, 02:54:06 PM »

New Hampshire for sure. Quite possibly the swingiest state in the country.

Those women are angry.
Logged
Paul Biya isn’t going far enough
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2020, 07:53:27 PM »

Pretty much anywhere in rural New England. (NH, VT, ME, some parts of MA/RI/NY)
Logged
The '90s' Last Champion
S019
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,635
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2020, 10:46:32 PM »

NH, probably, also this should probably be in one of the Election Analysis Boards
Logged
インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,270
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2020, 10:47:31 PM »

NH, probably, also this should probably be in one of the Election Analysis Boards
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,682
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2020, 10:52:06 PM »

Wisconsin.

Logged
°Leprechaun:'s Rainbow
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,101
Uruguay


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2020, 08:05:54 PM »

Perhaps Iowa, it is unlikely that Trump will lose the state, but it has swung back and forth a great deal in the last 40 years.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2020, 12:33:44 AM »

Traditionally: Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio.

Current period: Wisconsin, Maine, Arizona, Michigan.

Potential future swing states post Texas flip: Michigan, Minnesota, Connecticut, Arizona.
Logged
iceman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,618
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2020, 06:29:33 AM »

I remember NH-01 flipping back and forth GOP and DEM in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014 and it ended when Carol Shea-Porter finally retired LOL. So I guess New Hampshire is also a good contender.
Logged
Morgan Kingsley
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,420
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2020, 04:06:00 AM »

Iowa or Ohio probably Ohio
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,858
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2020, 12:33:59 PM »

Montana, I'd say. Some of the swings (2004-2008 was remarkable) + willingness to split tickets for Bullock and Tester + relatively strong 3rd party performances.
Logged
Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 98,483
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2020, 12:52:35 PM »

KS is gonna be a blue state this election, since Warren is gonna be Veep and Barb Bollier and Gov Kelly are similar to Warren
Logged
Adjective-Statement
Anarcho-Statism
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,396


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2020, 03:13:44 PM »

The Rust Belt in general.
Logged
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,847
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2021, 12:34:50 PM »

New Hampshire for sure. Quite possibly the swingiest state in the country.

NH01 in particular was America's most fickle congressional district in the early 2010s, alternating frequently between Frank Guinta (R) and Carol Shea-Poter (D). Shea-Porter held the seat in 2006 and 2008 (Democratic waves) but was unseated by Guinta in the 2010 red wave. In a 2012 rematch she won her seat back but in a 2014 rematch of a rematch Guinta won (2014 was a red year). In 2016 Shea-Porter won but retired in 2019, and was replaced by Chris Pappas (D), who has since then (gasp!) held the seat.
Logged
Drew
drewmike87
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 997
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2021, 12:44:25 PM »


This.  We employ both Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin after all.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2021, 10:59:12 PM »

Maine was dead on for the reasons above.

Other candidates = Nevada, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin.

Maine and New Hampshire going for Biden with relative ease were a good sign for him. 
Logged
CivicParticipant
Spark498
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,693
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2021, 09:43:33 PM »

Alaska.
Logged
Proud Family Values
progressive85
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,628
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2021, 09:58:11 PM »

Gotta go with my homeslice state of PA.  I love it to death but it's the ultimate swing state.  It really goes from one party to the other.  Just when you think it's gone blue, it goes red the next time around.  Just when you think it's gone completely red, it flips and goes blue.
Logged
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,847
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2021, 02:29:25 PM »


This.  We employ both Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin after all.

And Baldwin won by a lot and Johnson won in 2016 to Russ Feingold.
I read somewhere that WI's two senators are more politically divergent than any other state's senators (which makes sense, since the vast majority of states have 2 Democratic or 2 Republican senators, and even when they have a 1-1 senate delegation, it typically doesn't include both a hard progressive and a staunch conserative).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 9 queries.