Is it ridiculous to call NH and VT gov safe R?

[Lognog]

IMO that is what i would rate them, they have insanely high approvals (Sununu is at 73% based off of 538). Yes, the numbers are inflated because of COVID, but I think voters will remember liking how they handled the crisis. Also, they weathered the storm of 2018 very well against some decent challengers, especially considering the walloping other Republicans on the state level saw

[brucejoel99]

No.

[Lognog]

No.

can't tell if that's to the question or if that is to what I said

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes

[brucejoel99]

No.

can't tell if that's to the question or if that is to what I said

The question

[voice_of_resistance]

Vermont no, NH yes

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It is ridiculous

[KaiserDave]

Vermont is safe

[Brother Jonathan]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

[KaiserDave]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Dem party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

[brucejoel99]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would not call NH Safe R at all, as a rule, given NH's fickle elasticness, but depending on circumstances, I could definitely see it being Likely R due to Sununu's incumbency.

VT is probably easier to consider as such, given how Scott has run strong in past elections, so I could, with some reluctance, rate as Safe R until more evidence arose that he was actually vulnerable.

[ElectionsGuy]

No. I would personally rate them both Likely R, but both of their approval's and early polling suggests fairly easy re-elections for both of them thus far. Dems couldn't even take out Sununu last cycle despite tightening towards the end and many people predicting upsets.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will have to wait another election cycle to beat them

[KaiserDave]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

Fair, but if Shumlin scraping by in 2014 is the only thing they have to prove them being an effective party, then I think my point stands.

[Brother Jonathan]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

Fair, but if Shumlin scraping by in 2014 is the only thing they have to prove them being an effective party, then I think my point stands.

Green Mountain Care was a flaming mess and Shumlin never personally recovered, but he did manage to win re-election (narrowly) in 2014 after it was thrown to the State Legislature. More to the point, what other offices have been competitive for the GOP statewide recently? Both the House and Senate have Democratic (or Dems+allies) super majorities, though I grant you the caucus is fractured at times. I hope Scot is re-elected, I personally like him and think he has done a good job, but safe R in a state that heavily favors Democrats is just a bit too much. I can see the race being Likely R at this point, but the partisan lean is just too much to ever make the race Safe R.

[KaiserDave]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

Fair, but if Shumlin scraping by in 2014 is the only thing they have to prove them being an effective party, then I think my point stands.

Green Mountain Care was a flaming mess and Shumlin never personally recovered, but he did manage to win re-election (narrowly) in 2014 after it was thrown to the State Legislature. More to the point, what other offices have been competitive for the GOP statewide recently? Both the House and Senate have Democratic (or Dems+allies) super majorities, though I grant you the caucus is fractured at times. I hope Scot is re-elected, I personally like him and think he has done a good job, but safe R in a state that heavily favors Democrats is just a bit too much. I can see the race being Likely R at this point, but the partisan lean is just too much to ever make the race Safe R.

Hmmmm. I suppose I see your point, but at least again Phil I think the party is pretty ineffective. Every attack that's been used against him has failed miserably, and while Zuckerman is a decent candidate to keep it somewhat competitive, Holcombe would get wiped out.

[Brother Jonathan]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

Fair, but if Shumlin scraping by in 2014 is the only thing they have to prove them being an effective party, then I think my point stands.

Green Mountain Care was a flaming mess and Shumlin never personally recovered, but he did manage to win re-election (narrowly) in 2014 after it was thrown to the State Legislature. More to the point, what other offices have been competitive for the GOP statewide recently? Both the House and Senate have Democratic (or Dems+allies) super majorities, though I grant you the caucus is fractured at times. I hope Scot is re-elected, I personally like him and think he has done a good job, but safe R in a state that heavily favors Democrats is just a bit too much. I can see the race being Likely R at this point, but the partisan lean is just too much to ever make the race Safe R.

Hmmmm. I suppose I see your point, but at least again Phil I think the party is pretty ineffective. Every attack that's been used against him has failed miserably, and while Zuckerman is a decent candidate to keep it somewhat competitive, Holcombe would get wiped out.

I do think Scott is proving difficult for the Democrat's to effectively attack. The most controversial thing he can do is veto bills, and the only way to keep them from becoming a law if the legislature tried to overturn it is if some Democrats defect to sustain the veto. So it's hard for the Democrat's to  attack Scott for his vetoes when some Democrats in the legislature had to vote to sustain them in the first place. Beyond that, you're right, they just don't have great messaging against him yet.

[KaiserDave]

Both are states where high approval ratings for governors aren't all that well reflected in election results. Sununu had something like a 60% approval rating in 2018 and won with 52.8% of the vote. Plus, both states have well organized and effective Democratic parties, and seem to have viable candidates running.

As you would know, the VT Des party has been remarkably ineffective at doing anything since Green Mountain Care failed. Phil won by a huge margin in a D wave year, and with COVID increasing his approvals, I expect him to win by more.

That timeline doesn't sync up. Green Mountain Care was arguably dead by April 2014 yet Shumlin still managed to be re-elected despite voters' dissatisfaction with the progress the state had made in instituting health care reform.

Fair, but if Shumlin scraping by in 2014 is the only thing they have to prove them being an effective party, then I think my point stands.

Green Mountain Care was a flaming mess and Shumlin never personally recovered, but he did manage to win re-election (narrowly) in 2014 after it was thrown to the State Legislature. More to the point, what other offices have been competitive for the GOP statewide recently? Both the House and Senate have Democratic (or Dems+allies) super majorities, though I grant you the caucus is fractured at times. I hope Scot is re-elected, I personally like him and think he has done a good job, but safe R in a state that heavily favors Democrats is just a bit too much. I can see the race being Likely R at this point, but the partisan lean is just too much to ever make the race Safe R.

Hmmmm. I suppose I see your point, but at least again Phil I think the party is pretty ineffective. Every attack that's been used against him has failed miserably, and while Zuckerman is a decent candidate to keep it somewhat competitive, Holcombe would get wiped out.

I do think Scott is proving difficult for the Democrat's to effectively attack. The most controversial thing he can do is veto bills, and the only way to keep them from becoming a law if the legislature tried to overturn it is if some Democrats defect to sustain the veto. So it's hard for the Democrat's to  attack Scott for his vetoes when some Democrats in the legislature had to vote to sustain them in the first place. Beyond that, you're right, they just don't have great messaging against him yet.

Yeah, and given that his COVID seems to be approved of, I doubt he loses. But Likely R is fine.

[SnowLabrador]

No. It's similar to the Charlie Baker dynamic here in Massachusetts, where tons of liberals love their "moderate" Republican governors, even though Sununu isn't all that moderate. Both Scott and Sununu will win re-election easily in November.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm not so sure about Sununu, but the Vermont governorship is in all likelihood Scott's for as long as he wants it, yeah.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

VT is essentially a non-partisan race at this point. Safe Scott.

NH is just shy of safe, but it would likely take a major collapse of Sununu's term for him to lose.

[Figueira]

I would always be cautious about calling any gubernatorial race "safe" this far ahead, but if you're willing to do that, Vermont would probably qualify.

[JerryArkansas]

I think with democrats in Vermont possibly going to nominate an anti-vaxxer I say safe R there isn't out of the ordinary. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT and NH are the only Govs to turn from Red to blue. Of course Dems dont want Sununu to challenge Hassan so Volinsky needs to defeat Sununu