IL-GOV 2002: Why didn't Blagojevich win by 20-40 points in 2002?

[Suburbia]

The IL GOP was decimated after George Ryan's corruption damaged the state, why didn't Democratic challenger Rod Blagojevich beat Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan by 20-40 points in 2002?

Blago only won by 7 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/07/us/the-2002-elections-midwest-illinois.html

Why did the IL GOP nominate someone with the name Ryan in 2002 anyway?

[Virginiá]

State-related politics aside, George W. Bush was still very popular at the time (63% approve - 29% disapprove, per Gallup) and it's well-documented that popular incumbent presidents tend to benefit their party in midterm elections. It certainly went well enough for Republicans that they gained 8 US House seats - a rarity for the party that controls the White House. That effect ripples downballot, too.

[Rjjr77]

The IL GOP was decimated after George Ryan's corruption damaged the state, why didn't Democratic challenger Rod Blagojevich beat Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan by 20-40 points in 2002?

Blago only won by 7 points.

https://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/07/us/the-2002-elections-midwest-illinois.html

Why did the IL GOP nominate someone with the name Ryan in 2002 anyway?

Jim Ryan was super popular, he'd beaten cancer, lost a daughter to cancer, and won a huge judgement against the tobacco companies all in like a 3 year period while AG. George Ryan's scandal just allowed the demographic shifts to finally end the state hold.

[brucejoel99]

Because it was a Republican year & voters didn't hate the GOP nominee.

[Gracile]

That margin was only a few points to the right of how IL voted in 2000 (as can be expected in a midterm year that heavily favored Republicans). It was also the first time in 30 years that the Democrats won the Governor's office, which was mildly significant as it showed a realignment toward the Democrats when Republicans had dominated IL downballot (and you can see said domination in this race where the Republicans outperformed the federal baseline in several left-trending counties).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Chicagoland voters wanted Roland Burris but they got Rod Blagojevich, some blue collar county voters ended up voting R at  last minute

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

[Bidenworth2020]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

As long as Jesse White is alive we will lol

[Gracile]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

As long as Jesse White is alive we will lol

White is not seeking reelection in 2022.

[President Johnson]

It's even more amazing how the Green Party got 10% in 2006 and Blago failed to win absolute majority.

[Nutmeg]

The Chicagoland voters wanted Roland Burris

That's not correct. Paul Vallas won Chicagoland in the primary.

Also what are you saying the implication for the general election was? That non-Blagojevich primary voters switched over to Ryan in the general?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

Blago is a #POPULIST FF who fights for downstate. I have been looking at the 2002 Gubernatorial map. In MN Dems were getting blowout margins in the Iron Range and rural WWC Northern MN, while winning Hennepin by 1 point. In 2002 WI Jim Doyle won in a blowout in SW and Northern Wisconsin as well.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

Blago is a #POPULIST FF who fights for downstate. I have been looking at the 2002 Gubernatorial map. In MN Dems were getting blowout margins in the Iron Range and rural WWC Northern MN, while winning Hennepin by 1 point. In 2002 WI Jim Doyle won in a blowout in SW and Northern Wisconsin as well.

The DFL candidate was from rural northern Minnesota. (Actually the first candidate I ever voted for Governor. Also the only time the candidate I voted for came in 3rd place in my county.) Also Tim Penny probably took more Democratic votes in Hennepin County (not to mention the Green's over 3%) although Pawlenty's breaking 40% is something we won't be seeing ever again.

To clarify I didn't really pay attention to that election. I didn't live in Minnesota until the fall and was too busy getting situated with college and didn't really follow state politics at the time, so I only learned who the candidates were a couple months before the election. So I was low info and just voted Moe as the DFL candidate. Since Blue Earth County was in Penny's old congressional seat, he came in second. I don't regret voting for Moe though, while he was a lousy candidate and not my type of Democrat Penny was a conservadem who ran on a silly Moderate Hero platform and then endorsed McCain in 2008.

[voice_of_resistance]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

This is Glenn Poshard erasure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Downstate Dems, in Urbana and Southern Illinois University wanted Roland Burris whom did very well as Comptroller in previous office, they recoiled and voted against Blago.

[Mr. Illini]

Downstate Dems, in Urbana and Southern Illinois University wanted Roland Burris whom did very well as Comptroller in previous office, they recoiled and voted against Blago.

Roland Burris did not win Champaign or Jackson Counties, nor are those counties large enough to swing the statewide result in any way that would prompt an Atlas thread 18 years later.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty amazing how Ryan did about as well in Chicagoland as Rauner did in 2014, but the difference Downstate is something remarkable that we’ll probably never see something like 2002 again

As long as Jesse White is alive we will lol

You won’t be seeing at the same time a Democrat losing the Chicago suburbs in blowout fashion while making up for it in southern Illinois. Those days are long gone.

2002 was just a really weird election across the spectrum. Brad Henry lost OKC by a big margin but still somehow won, Janet Napolitano won Arizona despite losing Maricopa County, in Maine the county map was essentially a flip of what it is nowadays, and that’s not even getting into the oddities of New York, Wyoming and Hawaii where it seems unlikely we’ll ever get results like that again

[Nutmeg]

Downstate Dems, in Urbana and Southern Illinois University wanted Roland Burris whom did very well as Comptroller in previous office, they recoiled and voted against Blago.

Roland Burris did not win Champaign or Jackson Counties, nor are those counties large enough to swing the statewide result in any way that would prompt an Atlas thread 18 years later.

When I pointed out the poster's incorrect claim re Chicagoland, he shifted to this Downstate-related claim instead without making any counter-point. Totally useless to debate, though thank you for keeping up the fight against misinformation.

[DrScholl]

There really was no reason for that to happen when you consider that Jim Ryan was a fairly decent candidate for Republicans at the time.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

It's even more amazing how the Green Party got 10% in 2006 and Blago failed to win absolute majority.

What happened to cause the Greens to do so well in 2006?

[Donerail]

It's even more amazing how the Green Party got 10% in 2006 and Blago failed to win absolute majority.

What happened to cause the Greens to do so well in 2006?

Blago

[Suburbia]

Did Blagojevich win Sangamon County, IL?