Is Ron DeSantis still presidential material?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 06:42:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Is Ron DeSantis still presidential material?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: Is Ron DeSantis still presidential material?  (Read 2728 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: April 26, 2020, 01:04:50 PM »

Too soon to tell. Very often, very early frontrunners and hopefuls never make it to the WH, while others come out of nowhere and win. Even just 1 year is a lifetime in politics. One scandal can change everything, one crisis can catapult someone else into the a group of frontrunners. Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Gary Hart, Howard Dean, Edmund Muskie are just a handful of contenders who looked promising but then failed badly.

Predicting how DeSantis would do if he ever runs 4 prez is pure speculation. My gut feeling is the 2024 GOP nominee will be someone we either don't or barely know, or someone we never thought would be there. No matter what happens in 2024. Especially if Trump loses, the 2024 GOP nominee is hardly predictable. Sure, it could be DeSantis, but he may not even make it into the year 2024 he announced his candidacy in spring 2023.

This is the correct answer. I think he's bounced back from his early Rona fumbles (and even they didn't hit his popularity that much) and he has plenty of time once this is over to do other things. His resume alone would still almost naturally make him a contender, but I do raise a question mark about your implication that he's the early frontrunner. He's thought of as a candidate, sure, but most of the early speculation seems to be about Pence and Haley.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: April 26, 2020, 01:07:10 PM »

Too soon to tell. Very often, very early frontrunners and hopefuls never make it to the WH, while others come out of nowhere and win. Even just 1 year is a lifetime in politics. One scandal can change everything, one crisis can catapult someone else into the a group of frontrunners. Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Gary Hart, Howard Dean, Edmund Muskie are just a handful of contenders who looked promising but then failed badly.

Predicting how DeSantis would do if he ever runs 4 prez is pure speculation. My gut feeling is the 2024 GOP nominee will be someone we either don't or barely know, or someone we never thought would be there. No matter what happens in 2024. Especially if Trump loses, the 2024 GOP nominee is hardly predictable. Sure, it could be DeSantis, but he may not even make it into the year 2024 he announced his candidacy in spring 2023.

This is the correct answer. I think he's bounced back from his early Rona fumbles (and even they didn't hit his popularity that much) and he has plenty of time once this is over to do other things. His resume alone would still almost naturally make him a contender, but I do raise a question mark about your implication that he's the early frontrunner. He's thought of as a candidate, sure, but most of the early speculation seems to be about Pence and Haley.

Well, if Trump wins a 2nd term, the 2024 nomination is a done deal for Pence if he wants it.  Pence would likely have a rough time in the GE though.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,765
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: April 26, 2020, 11:30:19 PM »

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.

If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: April 27, 2020, 07:23:18 AM »

If Trump loses, Cruz will once again be Prez material not DeSantis, he will have a tough reelection,  he only beat Gillum by .05%
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2020, 12:59:15 PM »

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.

If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.

Ehhh... vaguely rural flavored retreads have accomplished absolutely nothing for Sunbelt Dems in recent times (Bredesen, Edmondson, Perriello, Stacey Evans, Graham in 2018, etc.).  Better to go with the known quantity who won with the new coalition.
Logged
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,610
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2020, 02:01:54 PM »

Pretty sure his approval has taken a considerable nosedive after covid. Even if he runs, I doubt he'll be the nominee, and I think he'll be attacked constantly by the media and his republican primary opponents for his covid response. Although I also think he'll end up losing his re-election bid because of his response.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2020, 04:24:50 AM »

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.

If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.

Ehhh... vaguely rural flavored retreads have accomplished absolutely nothing for Sunbelt Dems in recent times (Bredesen, Edmondson, Perriello, Stacey Evans, Graham in 2018, etc.).  Better to go with the known quantity who won with the new coalition.

She's not really a "retread" so to speak considering we haven't even ran her statewide yet (remember, she only left her initial political office - Congress - to run in 2018 for Governor in the first place), & the feeling of regret for the upset that was picking Gillum over her could probably propel her to a victory in the Democratic primary.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2020, 09:10:53 AM »

Probably not.  There's a long history of very popular governors getting talked up for the WH and then either flaming out in scandal or just overstaying their welcome at the state level (Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, Christie in NJ, McDonnell in VA, Pawlenty in MN, Walker in WI, Strickland in Ohio).

At this point I think DeSantis just loses to Fried in 2022.

In the scenario where he is most likely to win a 2nd term (an unpopular Biden presidency with a long term weak economy), the 2024 GOP primary will not favor a cheery pro-business Sunbelt suburbs campaign, but rather someone who can out populist Biden, including getting to his left on some economic issues to pick up some of the more socially conservative Bernie voters.

Fried is a great candidate, but the Agriculture Commissioner seat is at risk of flipping if she gives it up after one term. I think she’ll probably wait for 2026 when she’s term limited or run for Senate in 2024.

If Gwen Graham runs, she probably clears the field quickly and Fried would have no reason to challenge her.

Ehhh... vaguely rural flavored retreads have accomplished absolutely nothing for Sunbelt Dems in recent times (Bredesen, Edmondson, Perriello, Stacey Evans, Graham in 2018, etc.).  Better to go with the known quantity who won with the new coalition.

She's not really a "retread" so to speak considering we haven't even ran her statewide yet (remember, she only left her initial political office - Congress - to run in 2018 for Governor in the first place), & the feeling of regret for the upset that was picking Gillum over her could probably propel her to a victory in the Democratic primary.
[/quote
I think a Freid vs. Graham primary would be good. If Trump somehow wins in 2020, I think either one of this is favored against DeSantis at this point.
Logged
Roblox
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,245


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2020, 01:25:45 PM »

I was about to say "he never was", but then I realized that with people like George W. Bush and Trump having held the office, "presidential material" isn't exactly a high standard.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2020, 02:02:18 PM »

Yes, definitely presidential caliber and he will run in 2024/28.  Being a governor of Florida confers an immediate advantage in terms of name recognition/fundraising. 
I think so as well. He's doing a great job down here. The people here on the forum complaining him aren't even in Florida. My life has barely changed at all since this started. I only wear a mask for five minutes a day. Only one person I vaguely know got sick (my youngest brother's teacher) but she recovered and school had already been canceled.

The lockdown's precedents are very alarming to me. DeSantis can lead the way by following Kemp's lead, but he is smart enough to know that it should be done in phases.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2020, 06:23:21 PM »

Yes, definitely presidential caliber and he will run in 2024/28.  Being a governor of Florida confers an immediate advantage in terms of name recognition/fundraising. 
I think so as well. He's doing a great job down here. The people here on the forum complaining him aren't even in Florida. My life has barely changed at all since this started. I only wear a mask for five minutes a day. Only one person I vaguely know got sick (my youngest brother's teacher) but she recovered and school had already been canceled.

The lockdown's precedents are very alarming to me. DeSantis can lead the way by following Kemp's lead, but he is smart enough to know that it should be done in phases.

Hello.
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: May 01, 2020, 06:35:13 PM »

Yes, definitely presidential caliber and he will run in 2024/28.  Being a governor of Florida confers an immediate advantage in terms of name recognition/fundraising. 
I think so as well. He's doing a great job down here. The people here on the forum complaining him aren't even in Florida. My life has barely changed at all since this started. I only wear a mask for five minutes a day. Only one person I vaguely know got sick (my youngest brother's teacher) but she recovered and school had already been canceled.

The lockdown's precedents are very alarming to me. DeSantis can lead the way by following Kemp's lead, but he is smart enough to know that it should be done in phases.

Hello.
I forgot you’re not a Roman Tongue
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2020, 02:27:23 PM »

Yes, definitely presidential caliber and he will run in 2024/28.  Being a governor of Florida confers an immediate advantage in terms of name recognition/fundraising. 
I think so as well. He's doing a great job down here. The people here on the forum complaining him aren't even in Florida. My life has barely changed at all since this started. I only wear a mask for five minutes a day. Only one person I vaguely know got sick (my youngest brother's teacher) but she recovered and school had already been canceled.

The lockdown's precedents are very alarming to me. DeSantis can lead the way by following Kemp's lead, but he is smart enough to know that it should be done in phases.

Hello.
I forgot you’re not a Roman Tongue
I still lived most of my life there. And this nonsense might not matter because if he's good enough, people won't care.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2020, 05:18:20 PM »

Let's put things in perspective,  DeSantis won by .05 percent against Gillum than Graham. Which cost Nelson his seat. Due to fact Gillum didnt commit not to raise taxes and Graham did.

FL votes R in state races and has the longest streak of R state legislators due to no state income tax. FL votes liberally at the Federal level due to SSA funding. Going against Biden in a reelection will be a tough task. But DeSantis would of had a better chance in 2024, had Trump been reelected
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: May 24, 2020, 01:37:46 AM »

Yes. He will be the Republican nominee in 2024, calling it now.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: May 27, 2020, 12:16:48 AM »

I wasn't paying much attention to that particular race in 2018, but my subjective view has been that he did some really weird campaigning - running absurdly Trumpist ads, then getting elected and turning into a surprise moderate. Of course, I'm glad he's moderate, but I don't think I'd want as President someone who would do that kind of bait-and-switch. He'd be far better than Pence and the like, though.

I suppose we'll see how the rest of his handling of the virus goes.
Logged
Nightcore Nationalist
Okthisisnotepic.
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,827


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: May 27, 2020, 01:17:32 PM »

Yes (with the caveat that he wins re-election), and I was wrong when in March/early April I said that his COVID response seriously harmed his prospects.  He's a much better than average choice for the GOP in 2024 or 2028 if the former is a bad cycle for the GOP.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 11 queries.