What do you think the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary look like?

[Lognog]

Who will win?

[Rjjr77]

Who will win?

Usual Suspects:
Pence
Haley
Rubio

Possibles:
Hawley
Cotton
DeSantis
Pompeo

Shouldn't but probably will:
Kasich
Paul
Cruz

0.1% chance they run:
Romney
Sasse
Hogan

[brucejoel99]

This doesn't pertain to 2020 &, as such, belongs on the Presidential Election Trends board.

Mods, please move.

[TrumpBritt24]

The important players:

Donald Trump Jr.
Nikki Haley
Josh Hawley

Trump Jr and Hawley will divide the Trump base, while Haley gains much of the NeoCon support. Haley wins this primary if Trump wins in 2020.

If President Biden is in office, Donald Trump will presumably become under investigation by the DOJ/FBI/State of New York, thus giving a lot of energy and party unity toward Trump Jr, who'll use the GOP to paint himself and his family as victims of a conspiracy.

Hot Take:

President Biden doesn't run for a second term, and Hunter Biden defeats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic Primary, leading to a Hunter Biden/Vice President Harris vs. Donald Trump Jr./Nikki Haley election in 2024, reigniting the Hunter/Don Jr. feud from Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

[Blue3]

This should be moved to the 2024 and beyond board aka Presidential Election Trends

[Grassroots]

The important players:

Donald Trump Jr.
Nikki Haley
Josh Hawley

Trump Jr and Hawley will divide the Trump base, while Haley gains much of the NeoCon support. Haley wins this primary if Trump wins in 2020.

If President Biden is in office, Donald Trump will presumably become under investigation by the DOJ/FBI/State of New York, thus giving a lot of energy and party unity toward Trump Jr, who'll use the GOP to paint himself and his family as victims of a conspiracy.

Hot Take:

President Biden doesn't run for a second term, and Hunter Biden defeats Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic Primary, leading to a Hunter Biden/Vice President Harris vs. Donald Trump Jr./Nikki Haley election in 2024, reigniting the Hunter/Don Jr. feud from Donald Trump's impeachment trial.

Jr has said on multiple occasions that he isn't going to run.

[chibul]

If Trump does not win his re-election there is absolutely no doubt in my mind he runs in 2024 and if he runs in 2024 I think the primary will be like the 2000 democratic primary where there isn't any serious challenger.

[SnowLabrador]

If Trump loses re-election: He'll run in 2024 and be the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. He'll probably declare his candidacy immediately after losing 2020.

If Trump wins re-election: Either Trump Jr. or Ivanka. If neither of them run, then Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, or Ron DeSantis. Leaning towards Cotton, but if there's someone with the last name Trump on the ballot, they'll win the primary very easily.

[Brittain33]

This should be moved to the 2024 and beyond board aka Presidential Election Trends

I’m a moderator and I can see no one’s reported this post to move it. That will get the mod’s attention.

[indietraveler]

If Trump loses and runs again in 2024 and gets the nod the GOP is really screwing themselves heading into the early 30s. We know he won't stay quiet after Biden takes office in 2021. By the time election day 2024 comes around we would be closing in on almost 10 years of Trumpism (really more than that if we count the birth certificate crap). His sh**t will be even more tired by then and will likely speed up the changes we're predicting even more. I think whoever the Dem nominee is in '24 could be looking at a bigger win than Obama '08.

By '28 the oldest millennials will be mid-40s, who so far have shown they aren't becoming more conservative as they age compared to previous generations. Pretty much all of Gen Z will be of voting age by then, the most diverse generation in history who for almost all of their lives now have listened to a major political party essentially look down on them or likely their close friends.

[Mr. Illini]

Mike Pence is dying to be President and will run in 2024.

[Grassroots]

Trump won't run in 2024 if he's voted out in 2020. He isn't particularly enjoying being president, and I don't think he's dumb enough to do that.

I think the 2024 primary will be between Pence, Haley, Hawley.

[ShadowRocket]

In the event of a Trump reelection, I think Pence is the odds on favorite as he can claim the heir apparent mantle as the sitting VP. Plus another more significant factor, IMO, is the likelihood that 2024 could turn into a 2008 redux after eights years of Trump and I could see many of the younger contenders like Hawley and Cotton sitting it out and waiting for a better environment in 2028. I think the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley, etc. would all still run since that year will probably be their last chance and they wouldn't have anything to lose. Maybe Haley is his main competition?

In the event of a Trump defeat, then I would expect it to be a lot more competitive. Pence is probably still a front runner, but I would think a 2020 defeat hurts his standing and leaves a wider opening for a fresher face to emerge.

[RINO Tom]

Josh Hawley and his three best friends, of course.

[Lechasseur]

In the event of a Trump reelection, I think Pence is the odds on favorite as he can claim the heir apparent mantle as the sitting VP. Plus another more significant factor, IMO, is the likelihood that 2024 could turn into a 2008 redux after eights years of Trump and I could see many of the younger contenders like Hawley and Cotton sitting it out and waiting for a better environment in 2028. I think the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley, etc. would all still run since that year will probably be their last chance and they wouldn't have anything to lose. Maybe Haley is his main competition?

In the event of a Trump defeat, then I would expect it to be a lot more competitive. Pence is probably still a front runner, but I would think a 2020 defeat hurts his standing and leaves a wider opening for a fresher face to emerge.

I mostly agree with this

The one point I disagree on is with Pence. I agree he probably gets the 2024 nomination if Trump is reelected, but if Trump loses I think his chances would be slim.

[ShadowRocket]

In the event of a Trump reelection, I think Pence is the odds on favorite as he can claim the heir apparent mantle as the sitting VP. Plus another more significant factor, IMO, is the likelihood that 2024 could turn into a 2008 redux after eights years of Trump and I could see many of the younger contenders like Hawley and Cotton sitting it out and waiting for a better environment in 2028. I think the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley, etc. would all still run since that year will probably be their last chance and they wouldn't have anything to lose. Maybe Haley is his main competition?

In the event of a Trump defeat, then I would expect it to be a lot more competitive. Pence is probably still a front runner, but I would think a 2020 defeat hurts his standing and leaves a wider opening for a fresher face to emerge.

I mostly agree with this

The one point I disagree on is with Pence. I agree he probably gets the 2024 nomination if Trump is reelected, but if Trump loses I think his chances would be slim.

I would actually agree on the second point. If Biden is popular, I could see Pence still being set up as a sacrificial lamb akin to Mondale in '84 or Dole in '96 and the likes of Hawley, Cotton, etc. still sitting things out and waiting until 2028.

[brucejoel99]

A Pence victory.

[Grassroots]

Somebody post a prediction map.

[brucejoel99]

Somebody post a prediction map.

Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 1,817 delegates, 58%, 39 states
Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 271 delegates, 21%, 7 states
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 201 delegates, 11%, 2 states + DC
Fmr. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 183 delegates, 8%, 2 states

Pence selects Haley to be his VP nominee.

[Lechasseur]

In the event of a Trump reelection, I think Pence is the odds on favorite as he can claim the heir apparent mantle as the sitting VP. Plus another more significant factor, IMO, is the likelihood that 2024 could turn into a 2008 redux after eights years of Trump and I could see many of the younger contenders like Hawley and Cotton sitting it out and waiting for a better environment in 2028. I think the likes of Cruz, Rubio, Haley, etc. would all still run since that year will probably be their last chance and they wouldn't have anything to lose. Maybe Haley is his main competition?

In the event of a Trump defeat, then I would expect it to be a lot more competitive. Pence is probably still a front runner, but I would think a 2020 defeat hurts his standing and leaves a wider opening for a fresher face to emerge.

I mostly agree with this

The one point I disagree on is with Pence. I agree he probably gets the 2024 nomination if Trump is reelected, but if Trump loses I think his chances would be slim.

I would actually agree on the second point. If Biden is popular, I could see Pence still being set up as a sacrificial lamb akin to Mondale in '84 or Dole in '96 and the likes of Hawley, Cotton, etc. still sitting things out and waiting until 2028.

You know what, in that context I think you're right.

But if Trump loses in 2020, Pence only gets the nomination in 2024 if it looks like the GOP are going to lose anyway.

I think in a 2024 scenario where Biden's the incumbent but where it looks like the GOP has a path to victory, Pence probably isn't nominated.

You're probably right about most of the "rising Stars" waiting until 2028. Unless 2024 looks very winnable.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think 2024 will see more established names like Pence, Haley, Cruz, Scott run while 2028 will be when younger stars like Hawley and DeSantis give it a go. Hawley wouldn’t want to give up his Senate seat after one term and DeSantis might wait to stay Governor until 2027.

[Lechasseur]

I think 2024 will see more established names like Pence, Haley, Cruz, Scott run while 2028 will be when younger stars like Hawley and DeSantis give it a go. Hawley wouldn’t want to give up his Senate seat after one term and DeSantis might wait to stay Governor until 2027.

The more I think about it, the more I think you're right on this.